PART I
The 3 Simple Rules of Investing
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.
âALBERT EINSTEIN
TAKING PROFESSOR EINSTEINâS recommendation, our goal is to make things as simple as possible, but not simpler. Youâll be surprised how simple they can and should be made. In the investment world, however, things are often made as complex as possible. Most investment advice, products, and services offered by investment companies and financial advisors, not to mention academic researchers, are much more complicated than they need to be.
Complexity comes with a cost. If an investment strategy will enable you to save $100 on your taxes or earn $50 more in interest, but it will cost you $3,000 to pay someone to help you do it, then thereâs not much point in doing it. Complexity is costing you much more than that, though, and usually you gain nothing.
Weâll cut that kind of complexity to the bone. When there is a strategy that will save or earn you money, weâll tell you about it. But if it will cost you more to do it than you will save or earn, weâll tell you that, too. Weâre mostly going to describe simplifications that earn or save you more, and cost you less. That may sound like what economists call a free lunchâtoo good to be true. But free lunches are possible even in the investment field, and weâve done the work to show you where to find them.
To enjoy your free lunch, just follow the three simple rules discussed here in Part I. The first two rules are about what to invest in and how to invest; the third rule is about what to screen out (and Part II will tell you why). Rule #1 describes what to invest in by encouraging you to radically reduce the number of investment products you use. Rule #2, the central nugget of the book, reveals the investment strategy that is not only the simplest but the best to help you meet your financial goals. Youâll learn how to do this even with only two investment classes. Short and to the point, Rule #3 will tell you to ignore the noiseâall the counterclaims and arguments against our recommendations that you typically hear from Wall Street and the financial industry. Donât let that noise dissuade you from following Rules #1 and #2.
RULE #1
Simplify Your Options
You may not believe this: Whether youâre a small investor with a few thousand dollars to invest, or a wealthy investor with a few million dollars, or a gigantic pension fund with a hundred billion dollars, you need only consider at most about 10 investment products. The rest are of no use and arenât worth thinking about.
If you were going to buy a computer, how many brands do you need to choose from? About 10? And the same thing for a smartphoneâmaybe 10 models, at most? This point applies whether youâre a teenager doing homework or a top executive at a Fortune 500 firm.
Shopping for investments is a little different. Youâre faced with tens of thousands of investment vehicles to choose from, offered by thousands of investment firms. There are more than 80,000 mutual funds and ETFs (exchange-traded funds) worldwide. There are almost 10,000 hedge funds. The array is mind-boggling. And it keeps expensive financial advisors busy trying to guide confused investors through the mess. They let you know itâs difficult to choose because there are so many choices.
But, actually, there arenât. If there were 100,000 computers or smartphones to choose from and 99.9% of them cost 5 to 80 times as much as the other 0.1% but werenât any better, how many would there really be to choose from?
Why arenât there 100,000 computers or smartphones for the consumer to choose from but there are 100,000 investment vehicles? Because of product and price confusionâa topic we covered in the introduction. Consumers donât realize that 99.9% of investments cost so much more than the others. Neither do they realize that those few that cost so much less are just as good as or even better than the rest. They have been so confused by the product that they think theyâre buying a luxury convertible when theyâre only buying a bicycleâand paying 50 times too much for it. Theyâre so confused that they donât even know what, exactly, theyâre paying.
Hiring a financial advisor to guide you through the mess of investment products is usually no help. Most financial advisors will only reinforce and even add to the confusion because it is what they were taught, it is the industry status quo, and most of themâperhaps too uncriticallyâbelieve it. They believe theyâre trying to help their clients while also making a living, and they have no incentive to depart from the industry line.
THE ONLY INVESTMENT VEHICLES YOUâLL EVER NEED
In this book, weâre talking about âpassiveâ or indirect investingâin other words, investing in businesses in which youâre not an owner or employee. Weâre not trying to tell you how to actively and directly invest in or run your own business selling, say, hamburgers. (Note, too, that a completely different meaning of âpassiveâ applies to an investment vehicle that invests in all the securities in a market index instead of trying to pick certain ones; an index fund, then, is passive in this way.) If youâve got savings in a 401(k), an IRA, or taxable individual or joint account, or investments you oversee by being the administrator of a university endowment fund, a pension fund, a foundation fund, or a wealthy familyâs officeâweâre talking to you. Youâll want to invest these funds very wisely. Weâll name the investment vehicles that you should considerâforget all the others. Of course, youâll need information about how to use them, but reducing the number of choices will go a long way to reduce the complexity, too, so that the rest will also be easier.
You need only consider a very few types of investments, or whatâs known as asset classes: stocks (also called equities), fixed income (bonds and short-term investments like bank accounts, certificates of deposit [CDs], etc.), perhaps real estate, and simple forms of insurance that ensure meeting cash flow needs. Specifically, hereâs all you need:
Government inflation-protected securities (in the United States, these are Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS)
A low-cost total U.S. domestic equity index fund, either a mutual fund or an ETF (this would be part of a world stock fund)
A low-cost total international equity index fund, either a mutual fund or an ETF (the other part of the same world
stock fundâwith one fund, then, youâre investing in both U.S. and international stocks)
Single-premium income annuities
Low-cost term life insurance
Thatâs it. If you want to, you could also add these:
A low-cost total U.S. domestic bond market index mutual fund or ETF
A low-cost total international bond market index mutual fund or ETF
A low-cost REIT (real estate investment trust) index mutual fund or ETF (U.S. and global)
Individual stocks or bonds you buy yourself through a low-cost broker and keep for many years
Small amounts from a very short list of other investments that weâll discuss later
Thatâs 10 investment vehicles, maxâall youâll ever need.
In the case of the stock, bond, and REIT index funds, competing versions are offered by a small number of providers for fees of less than a quarter of a percent annually, and often much less. You should confine yourself to only those. Examples appear on the 3 Rules of Investing website, with regularly updated information.
Now we will describe each investment vehicle in more detail.
Government Inflation-Protected Securities (GIPS)
GIPS are the least risky investment on the planet. No other investment you can make or action you can take is closer to 100% certain to preserve the purchasing power of your money for decades to come. That includes stuffing your money under the mattress, buying goldâanything.
The best-known GIPS is the U.S. Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). These can be purchased easily online at the TreasuryDirect website1 of the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Several other national governments also issue inflation-protected securities. The United States is the biggest issuer, however, so to keep things simple weâll talk mainly about TIPS.
TIPS protect against inflation by increasing the face value by the inflation rate each year. Letâs start with an example. Suppose you buy a TIPS contract for its face value of $1,000, and the interest rate is 1%. Hence, the first year the interest is 1% of $1,000, or $10.
But each year the Treasury increases the TIPSâ face value for inflation. Letâs suppose that in the first year after you bought it, inflation is 2%. That means the face value becomes $1,020, so next year you will get interest of 1% on $1,020, or $10.20. And so on, for the length of the TIPS contract. As this example shows, as the TIPS contract matures, the government continues to pay you interest on the inflated face value. The final payment, then, is likely to be much more than what you paid for the TIPS in the first place, to keep up with inflation.
Another nice thing about TIPS is that they also protect you against deflation. If inflation was actually negative from the time you bought the TIPS until maturity, then youâll still get your $1,000 back at maturity, not its deflated value.
Is There Really No Risk with TIPS?
Well, no. Thereâs never no risk. But you canât get a smaller risk with a long-term investment than with TIPS. There just isnât one.
There are two risks with TIPS. One is that the government will default on its obligation. Thatâs a negligible risk, however, if itâs the government of a major developed country. The second risk is a little greater: that the governmentâs inflation rate may not be your inflation rate.2 The government calculates inflation based on the âaverageâ basket of goods consumed by the average person in the country. But your consumption might be of a different basket of goods. Your goods might increase in price faster than the averageâthen you could be in trouble. (Of course, their prices could also increase slower than the average, and then youâd be fine.) For example, the price or cost of health care and nursing homes has increased much faster than average prices. And guess what? As you grow older, thatâs what youâll be spending a lot of money on, like it or not. So if the price of health care increases faster than the rate of general inflation, TIPS payments will lag behind.
Be that as it may, the main use of TIPS is to protect against huge fluctuations in general inflation, which really could occur; they occurred in the United States as recently as the 1970s and early 1980s and more recently in some other countries. So if youâre depending on payments from investments over the next 30 to 60 years, itâs a good idea to protect against those fluctuations if you can.
Hereâs one more point to keep in mind: TIPSâ longest maturity is 30 years. You can guarantee yourself an income until 30 years out, but what about after that? If youâre retired at age 60, thereâs a decent chance youâll still need to collect an income after age 90. For that you need an annuityâthe simplest kind available. Itâs on our list of core investment vehicles, and weâll discuss it soon.
Global Diversification in Global Inflation-Protected Securities (GIPS)
In addition to the United States, a number of other countries issue inflation-protected securities, notably the United Kingdomâs Index-linked Gilts and Franceâs OATi. To hedge against sovereign riskâthat is, the very small risk that a major developed country cannot or will not honor its guaranteeâan investor could invest in a diversified portfolio of GIPS maturing on the desired dates. Doing so would take more effort than investing only in the inflation-protected securities of oneâs own government; but it would add a small measure of diversification, which will reduce risk.
World Stock Index Funds
The second investment is different. Global stocksâthat is, stocks that are listed on stock exchanges in the United States, Europe, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Australia, Brazil, and many other places in the worldâare the riskiest major category of investments. When you invest in stocks, thereâs no contract to say youâll ever receive anything back.
Because global stocks are not as certain as GIPS to pay your money back, they have to offer you more. As we noted earlier, at this writing, U.S. TIPS offered a return of only about 1.5% above inflation over the next 30 years.3 Global stocks, however, are likely to provide a higher return, if you wait long enough. As we noted in the introduction, studies suggest that if you hold a diversified stock portfolio for 30 years or more, history suggests youâre likely to get a good return (i.e., about a 5% return, above inflation, on average, give or take perhaps 3%). That likelihood is as high as possible if the portfolio is globally diversified. But itâs not guaranteed, not at all. GIPS, in contrast, are guaranteed by the government that issued them.
Fortunately, itâs easy and very inexpensive to invest in a globally diversified stock portfolio. The simplest way is to buy a world stock index ETF. âIndexâ in this context simply means a single investment vessel that holds a lot of different shares in various stocksâin fact, hundreds or thousands of them. Youâre in effect investing in multiple firms at once, rather than investing in Firm A, Firm B, and so forth. A few world stock index ETFs are similarâfrom companies like Vanguard, BlackRock iShares, State Street SPDRs, and Schwab. Itâs easiest to buy one that simply holds the whole global stock market (e.g., available at the time of this bookâs printing, and in the United States, from Vanguard,4 iShares,5 and SPDR6). They can be purchased easily online after opening an online brokerage account with, for example, Schwab, E*TRADE, or TD Ameritrade. These funds have low âexpense ratios,â the fees their managements charge per year. For example, two of the lowest-cost world stock ETFs currently have expense ratios of 0.19%7 and 0.24%,8 respectively. Hence, for every $10,000 of the assets youâve invested, youâll pay either $19 or $24 in fees that year, depending on which you choose. These two world stock funds are divided in approximately the same way the stocks of the world are divided. One of them reports that it holds 45% in U.S. stocks, 45% in international developed-market stocks, and 10% in stocks of emerging-market countrie...