Systemic and Systematic Risk Management

Joseph E. Kasser

• Publisher: CRC Press
• Year: 2020
• ISBN:
  9780429655562
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Technology & Engineering
• Subtopic: Project Management in Engineering
• Index: Technology & Engineering

This book discusses risk management as it applies to problem-solving for simple, complex and wicked problems faced by policy creators and implementors, project managers and systems engineers in the context of policies, large engineering projects (LEPs), projects and systems. When applying systems thinking to risk management, it can be seen that risk management applies to almost every action taken in daily life. This book:

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• Introduces the systems approach of integrating risk management into policy creation and implementation, project management and systems engineering, such as the risk framework and the Firm Fixed Price (FFP) contract with penalties and bonuses.

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• Introduces a number of out-of-the box concepts building on the application of the systems thinking tools in the system thinker's toolbox.

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• Points out that integrating risk management into policy and project management and systems engineering is just good management and engineering practice.

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• Discusses the flow of risk in a policy from creation through implementation via LEPs and simpler projects, identifying where risks arise and where they should be dealt with.

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• Presents the risks in the relationship between policy creation, implementation, project management and systems engineering.

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• Discusses risks throughout the policy implementation process and shows how the nature of risks changes from political to financial to technological as implementation proceeds.

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• Discusses managing complexity and specifies the minimum number of elements in a system for it to be defined as, and managed as, complex.

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• Points out that in most instances the traditionally ignored major implementation risk is that of poor performance by personnel.

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• Shows how to proactively incorporate prevention into planning in order to prevent risks, as well as how to mitigate them when they occur.

1 Introduction

This book is the fourth book in a set of books on the systems approach to problem-solving in project management and systems engineering and:

• Introduces new concepts based on the systems approach such as the risk framework (Section 1.2) and the firm fixed price (FFP) contract with penalties and bonuses (Section 8.2.4.1).
• Complements as well as incorporates material from the following companion volumes by adding new material from a risk perspective using the appropriate citations:
  • Systems Thinker’s Toolbox: Tools for Managing Complexity (Kasser 2018) which provides more than 100 conceptual tools for systems thinkers.
  • Systemic and Systematic Project Management (Kasser 2019a) which discusses the systems approach to project management and how some of the tools in the toolbox are applied in project management.
  • Systems Engineering: A Systemic and Systematic Methodology for Solving Complex Problems (Kasser 2019b) which discusses the systems approach to systems engineering and managing the complex, well-structured, ill-structured and wicked problems that are in vital need of risk management as well as how some of the tools in the toolbox are applied in project management.
• Integrates project management with systems engineering rather than treating them separately as is done in most other books.
• Is based on more than 20 years of research and 50 years of experience, much of which has been previously published in peer-reviewed conference papers and journals. Accordingly, citations are provided where appropriate.
• Shows how to proactively incorporate prevention into planning in order to prevent risks, as well as how to mitigate them when they occur.
• Discusses the flow of a policy from creating a policy to implementing one through large engineering projects (LEPs) (Chapter 8) and simpler projects and where the risks arise and should be dealt with.
• Presents the risks in the relationship between policy creation, implementation and project management.
• Discusses risks throughout the policy implementation process and shows how the nature of risks changes from political to financial to technological as implementation proceeds.
• Points out that in most instances the traditionally ignored major risk is that of poor performance by personnel.

1.1 How to Read and Use This Book

This is a reference book as well as a text book, so if you are not using it as a textbook, don’t read the book sequentially in a linear manner, but prepare for several passes through it. This book is non-fiction. Non-fiction books are different to fiction: stories, novels and thrillers are designed to be read in a linear manner from start to finish.

This book contains a lot of cross-references in the form of (Section n)^* to help you navigate through the information. While the majority of cross-references are to material in earlier chapters, there are some forward references to material in later chapters, particularly in this chapter, because it is more logical to discuss the material in the context of the later chapter.

This book is designed to help you learn and use the content in the following manner:

1. Skim the book: flip through the pages; if anything catches your eye and interests you, stop, glance at it and then continue flipping through the pages. Notice how the pages have been formatted with dot points (bulleted lists) rather than in paragraphs to make skimming and reading easier.
2. For each chapter:
   • Read the introduction and summary.
   • Skim the contents. Stop and read topics of interest.
   • Look at the drawings.
   • Go on to the next chapter.
3. If you don’t understand something, skip it on the first and second readings: don’t get bogged down in the details.
4. Work though the book slowly so that you understand the message in each section of each chapter. If you don’t understand the details of the example, don’t worry about it as long as you understand the point that the example is demonstrating. Refer to the list of acronyms in Table 1.1 as necessary.
5. Successfully manage your risks and all subsequent ones.

TABLE 1.1
Acronyms Used in This Book

ADS	Air Defence System
AoA	Analysis of Alternatives
ATR	Acceptance Test Review
BPR	Business Process Reengineering
CAIV	Cost as an Independent Variable
CATWOE	Customers, Actors, Transformation Process, Weltanschauung, Owners, Environmental Constraints
CDR	Critical Design Review
CM	Change Management
CONOPS	Concept of Operations
COTS	Commercial Off the Shelf
CPAF	Cost-Plus Award Fee
CPFF	Cost-Plus Fixed Fee
CPIF	Cost-Plus Incentive Fee
CRIP	Categorized Requirements in Process
DMSMS	Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages
DoD	Department of Defense
DODAF	Department of Defense Architecture Framework
dTRL	Dynamic TRL
DRR	Delivery ...