Airport Capacity Constraints and Strategies for Mitigation

A Global Perspective

Marc C. Gelhausen, Peter Berster, Dieter Wilken

• Publisher: Academic Press
• Year: 2019
• Print ISBN: 9780128126578
• eBook ISBN: 9780128126585
• Topic: Social Sciences
• Subtopic: Sociology
• Index: Social Sciences

When predicting the future of air traffic development, it is imperative for researchers and planners tohave the most accurate information about airport capacity constraints. Airport capacity constraintsand strategies for mitigation: A global perspective analyses airport capacity constraints with empiricalmethods that forecast future capacities and capacity shortfalls.The book discusses in detail the importance of airport capacity constraints on air traffic development, especially for international hubs, along with mitigation strategies for already congested airports. It analysesempirical data to provide greater insight into the problems of airport congestion and capacity shortage.The authors present detailed global traffic forecasts for the years 2030 and 2040, and mitigation strategiesfor overcoming the problem of limited airport capacity.As expanding current airports becomes increasingly difficult, and time consuming – especially for hubs– the study of current and future airport capacity constraints becomes ever more needed. This bookprovides detailed information about how to correctly assess and quantify the problem of limited airportcapacity, while offering strategies for overcoming these issues for a healthy global air traffic network.- Focuses on airport capacity constraints in the global air traffic network and their implications for the future of air traffic development- Features empirical and model-based approaches that forecast airport capacities and capacity shortcomings- Provides over capacity mitigation strategies based on sound and reliable data and methodology- Addresses capacity constraints at hub airports, providing insight into how to correctly assess and quantify limited capacity for these important players in the global air transportation network- Applies econometric models for the implication of restraining factors on the future volume and structure of air traffic

Part I

Basic concepts

Outline

• Part I Basic concepts
• Chapter 1 Introduction
• Chapter 2 Concepts of capacity and methods of estimation
• Chapter 3 Capacity utilisation at airports worldwide
• Chapter 4 Constrained and under-utilised airports

Part I

Basic concepts

Part I of this book describes the fundamental concepts and empirical findings which form the basis for the models presented in Part II and the forecasts for 2030 and 2040 in Part III. The first part starts with a short introduction and then presents different methods of airport capacity estimation. Here, we discuss, among other issues, whether to use the hourly or annual airport capacity of an airport. Key topics of Part I are air traffic ranking curves and the capacity utilisation index (CUI), which are based upon air traffic ranking curves. This part closes with a global analysis of capacity constrained and underutilised airports.

Chapter 1

Introduction

Abstract

Global air traffic has grown substantially in the past; the pace of growth has only been interrupted by oil and financial crises, terrorism and wars. The number of passengers transported worldwide by air transportation reached a volume of almost 3796 million in 2016. Since 2000, this volume has more than doubled with an average annual growth rate of 5.3%. While we have seen strong growth of air traffic worldwide in the past and can expect a continuation of growth for the long-term future, we have to take note of the fact that some important airports are faced with capacity constraints so that airlines have problems in planning and scheduling flights in the preferred way.

Keywords

Air traffic development; air traffic ranking curves; capacity constraints; capacity utilisation index; underutilised airports

Part I of this book describes the fundamental concepts and empirical findings which form the basis for the models presented in Part II and the forecasts for 2030 and 2040 in Part III of this book. Part I starts with a short introduction and then presents different methods of airport capacity estimation. Here, we discuss, among other issues, whether to use the hourly or annual airport capacity of an airport. Key topics of Part I are air traffic ranking curves and the capacity utilisation index, which is based upon air traffic ranking curves. Part I closes with a global analysis of capacity constrained and underutilised airports.

Global air traffic has grown substantially in the past; the pace of growth has only been interrupted by oil and financial crises, terrorism and wars. The number of passengers transported worldwide by air transportation reached a volume of almost 3796 million in 2016. Since 2000, this volume has more than doubled with an average annual growth rate of 5.3% as Fig. 1.1 illustrates (ICAO, 2017). While we have seen strong growth of air traffic worldwide in the past and can expect a continuation of growth for the long-term future, we have to take a note of the fact that some important airports are faced with capacity constraints so that airlines have problems in planning and scheduling flights in the preferred way. There are many airports with traffic volumes that reach capacity only at certain peak times, for instance, during some morning and evening hours. However, there are also airports with high traffic loadings which experience near capacity utilisation during many hours of the day, such as London Heathrow, Beijing and New York LaGuardia. On the other hand, the majority of airports have low traffic volumes and no capacity problems. The question is whether or not airport capacity constraints will become such a problem in the global air transport network to form a barrier to the future growth of demand. The objective of this book is to present a detailed empirical and model-based analysis of the impact of limited airport capacity on the future development of air traffic.

Figure 1.1 Development of global air traffic since 1950 [International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), 2017]. p.a., per annum.

So far, air traffic has continuously grown for the last 67 years, interrupted only by a small number of large global crises as Fig. 1.1 illustrates. After the 9/11 crisis in 2001, which lasted more or less until 2003, the long-term growth accelerated again and arrived at an average growth rate of about 8% in the period 2003–08. This growth was supported by further deregulation of air transport markets, especially in Europe, pushing the development of the low-cost carrier segment. Nevertheless, due to the global economic and financial crisis in 2008–09, worldwide air traffic experienced a severe decline again. Thereafter, air traffic regained ground by an increasing global air passenger volume growth rate of 6.4% per year between 2009 and 2017 [International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), 2017].

Despite some interruptions, air traffic has followed a stable, long-term growth trend, which has accelerated since the late 1990s; however, capacity constraints at airports are becoming increasingly more important especially at major hubs. Capacity constraints include limited physical infrastructure, such as runways and terminal capacity, as well as administrative restrictions, such as night curfews, noise and emission limits. Limited airport capacity may reduce the negative effects of air transport on the surrounding environment of the airport. However, these constraints reduce the available capacity and, thus, form a barrier to further growth at these airports (Gelhausen et al., 2013).

The approach we present in this book is an empirical and model-based one with a rather low level of detail with regard to individual airport characteristics, such as detailed runway system layout and passenger terminal configuration. It is data- and model-driven for two important reasons. First, processing a large number of airports in an acceptable time frame needs some reduction of details of individual airports. Furthermore, available data and its accuracy differ for airports in different world regions. Second, the approach is mainly intended to be employed within long-term forecasts with a horizon of about ten years or longer in large networks or on a global level, which further limits the level of detail that is realisable. Therefore the method presented is not intended to and cannot be a substitute for a more detailed analysis on the single airport level. It rather serves as an instrument to describe the overall level of airport capacity utilisation on a rather highly aggregated level, for example, a long-term forecast of annual aircraft movements and to which degree an airport is able to handle the forecast traffic volume.

References

1. Gelhausen MC, Berster P, Wilken D. Do airport capacity constraints have a serious impact on the future development of air traffic?. J Air Transp Manage. 2013;28:3–13.

2. International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), 2017. ICAO Traffic Statistics. ICAO, Montreal.

Chapter 2

Concepts of capacity and methods of estimation

Abstract

Given diverse capacity relevant components of airports, it becomes evident that the term airport capacity often does not refer to the airport as a whole but most likely to one of the functional components. Therefore airport capacity could mean runway or runway system capacity, terminal capacity, apron/stand capacity, airspace capacity and surface access capacity. Airport capacity is often used to describe the capacity of the component with the lowest capacity of all airport components. In major airports, this is often the runway system. Regardless of the term airport or runway capacity, we have to first describe what we mean by capacity. The term capacity refers to the capability of a facility to handle people, freight, vehicles, etc. Capacity is often regarded as the maximum number of traffic units, that is vehicles, that can pass through a tra...

Table of contents

• Cover image
• Title page
• Table of Contents
• Copyright
• Foreword
• Part I: Basic concepts
• Part II: Models for assessing mitigation strategies
• Part III: Forecasting future air traffic development up to 2040 and assessing mitigation strategies
• Appendix
• Index