The Independent Airport Planning Manual

A L W Bradley

• Publisher: Woodhead Publishing
• Year: 2010
• ISBN:
  9780857090355
• Topic: Technology & Engineering
• Subtopic: Transportation & Navigation
• Index: Technology & Engineering

This independent manual provides airport planners and architects with an essential planning guide and reference tool, based on the author's extensive experience in the field and involvement in developing best practice airline and airport industry guidelines. Chapters cover topics such as demand forecasting, masterplan development, terminal pier and satellite infrastructure, baggage handling, apron design and airport security.

• Provides airport planners and architects with an essential guide and reference tool, based on the author's extensive experience
• Discusses key airport planning issues including forecasting demand, planning and strategic objectives and airport security
• Outlines important airport planning principles specified by IATA for masterplan development featuring evaluation techniques and independent development planning

1

The brief to airport planners

Abstract:

This chapter reviews key overall issues in airport planning. It discusses planning objectives and target service levels. It then considers key requirements such as site constraints, construction logistics, airport security, terminal and satellite/pier design and cargo buildings. Finally, it reviews general aviation facilities such as those for aircraft maintenance, supporting infrastructure and ancillary facilities.

Key words

airport planning

security

terminals

cargo

maintenance

1.1 Forecasts

All major airport developments require the provision of detailed and accurate forecasts. Significant airport development can take between five and ten years to develop from the onset to completion. There are various ways in which forecasts can be compiled, all of which will provide slightly different and slightly varying output data or forecasts. Forecasts are never absolute; they are calculated estimates of how the industry will perform in the future based on international knowledge, local knowledge and local business development planning for an airport. The industry is changing at a dramatic rate and some of the previously standard assumptions on traffic growth, market mix, etc., create great uncertainty and ultimately can lead to less than accurate predictions of how the business may develop at the airport. This creates a major dilemma for development managers who are trying to predict the performance of a speculative development. The business case evaluations for a multimillion pound/dollar/euro airport development need to have accurate predictions of how the income generated from incremental passenger growth is going to pay back the vast investment needed.

It is for this reason that no single forecast is relied upon and that a range of forecasts are considered. Typically there are short-term, mid-term and long-term forecasts for a major airport development. These can then be further divided into low throughput and high throughput forecasts. The forecast ranges are known to be estimates based on best industry knowledge and proven forecasting techniques; nonetheless, they are fundamental approximations of the likely traffic presented in a particular airport. It is good practice to assemble the forecasts into a booklet of data, which can be easily referenced and updated.

As a rule of thumb, assuming a common data intelligence source and metrics, it is reasonable to presume that the more immediate the forecast period the more robust the forecast is likely to be. This is purely because it is easier to understand foreseeable changes to the airline industry, which are affected by, say, political and economic stability, fuel prices and business and leisure travel industry trends. For this reason forecasts should be reviewed every six months and the metrics of a particular airport design challenged against the new forecasts range. A fundamental challenge may come from a pressure exerted by a local community group or by an air traffic control restriction. This could result in a challenge to the preferred mode of operation of the runway systems, where the segregated mode becomes a necessity over the more operationally flexible and traffic capacity enhancing mixed mode of operation. Examples of the forecast metrics that are typically included within a forecast dataset are explained later within this chapter.

When compiling the brief for an airport planning development those responsible for developing the forecasts should account for the following checklist:

• Caution. Forecasts are never absolute. They indicate what might occur based on gathered knowledge and intelligence of the airport operation and the industry going forward.

• Forecast programme. The programme of forecasts should be explained. This should detail what data will be available and when the regular updates are provided. This allows the key design decisions for the airport to be aligned with updated forecast statistics. This minimises abortive costs.

• Market research. The forecasting team should be actively involved in continuous market research. This will require gathering data from the airports in question in the local vicinity and industry knowledge gathered by attendance at industry symposiums such as, but not limited to, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) route scheduling venues. The sources of the data should be clarified along with all of the assumptions that go to make up the dataset. Governmental demographic trend models should be referenced, which typically detail population centres, profession type, age groups and forecasted disposable income streams for regions against future years. Further sources of data would typically include Eurocontrol, International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), Airports Council International (ACI) and IATA. All of these organisations provide commercial airline and airport industry specialised global views of trends in air traffic growth and change. Once this information is collated it can be used to provide local airport forecasts against assumption sets.

• Forecast range. The forecasters should consider providing specific data as defined within the following clause 1.1.1 of this publication. For the data type provided the forecasters should provide a lower, medium and upper forecast range. These ranges will allow designers to test the ability of their designs to cope with unforeseen lower and upper ranges in traffic.

Forecast material for a typical major airport development may require substantial forecasting data to enable it to be developed appropriately. Obviously the types of data provided for a small development, such as the development of a single satellite, will require far less data than the data required to specify the size and form needed to develop a major airport complex, comprising airfield runway, terminal buildings, fuel farms, car parking, and various types of modal traffic into and out of the airport. As forecasts go beyond five years it is also very difficult to predict the true nature of the traffic you are trying to forecast. It is for this reason that forecasts are often detailed forecasts for the first five years of an airport development. Beyond five years it is normal to provide only the key forecast metrics needed to detail the long-term aspirations of an airport. The payback period from major airport development means that forecasts are needed typically up to 25 years from the start of the project. The actual payback period can be as long as 50 years. Clearly it can be seen that a major airport development with the lifespan of 50 years could require a substantial set of data to support its analysis. Usually datasets every five years after the first ten years are used.

1.1.1 Forecast metrics

Forecast metrics critical for a major airport development would normally include the following parameters:

• busiest day period(s)

• air passenger departures, arrivals and transfer busy hour rates in the busiest day

• total annual passengers (MPPA (million passengers per annum)/split)

• passengers by market (international/domestic/business/legacy, etc.)

• passenger air transport movements by market

• aircraft movements by aircraft code

• hold baggage to passenger ratios by market

• hand baggage to passenger ratios by market

• aircraft stand demand busiest hour and busiest day by Aircraft Code

• cargo air transport movements and stand demand

• air cargo and mail (tonnage/type)

• on-airport employment

• on-airport employment reporting and finishing profile

• staff car parking peak space demand.

Smaller airport developments will require only component parts of this dataset to enable them to be of use to the designer in question.

Table 1.1 d...