From Turnbull to Morrison

Understanding the Trust Divide

Mark Evans, Michelle Grattan, Brendan McCaffrie

• Publisher: Melbourne University Press Digital
• Year: 2019
• ISBN:
  9780522876147
• Topic: Historia
• Subtopic: Historia de Australia y Oceanía

Is trust between the government and Australians broken? The country's leading institutions have been ranked among the least trusted in the world at a time when the economy has experienced twenty-seven years of economic growth. This has all happened since the 2016 federal election under the revolving prime ministerships of Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison's first term.Turnbull was the fourth sitting prime minister in a decade to be removed by his own party. What role do these politically turbulent times play in this trust deficit? Scott Morrison has now been elected by the people. What does he and future prime ministers need to do to reboot civic belief in politics? How will history judge the contribution of the Turnbull and Morrison administrations?In From Turnbull to Morrison well-known political journalists including Michelle Grattan, George Megalogenis, Megan Davis, Virginia Haussegger, Mark Kenny and Katharine Murphy and leading academics such as Frank Bongiorno, Mark Evans, Susan Harris-Rimmer, Anne Tiernan, John Warhurst and George Williams examine the institutions, the issues and the leaders at the heart of this crisis.It is crucial reading for champions of liberal democracy. From Turnbull to Morrison: The Trust Divide is the thirteenth volume of Australia's longest running study of Australian Commonwealth Government, started in 1983.

CHAPTER 1

The Trust Divide

Mark Evans, Michelle Grattan and Brendan McCaffrie

Australia is a lucky country run mainly by second rate people who share its luck. It lives on other people’s ideas, and, although its ordinary people are adaptable, most of its leaders (in all fields) so lack curiosity about the events that surround them that they are often taken by surprise (Horne 1964).

Australians are favoured and lucky.¹ We live in one of the most beautiful ecosystems in the world, with all the responsibilities that it brings. Most of us have enjoyed and expect to continue to enjoy good living standards and peaceful development. We have powerful allies watching out for us. And our geographical location and history provide us with comparative advantages when we look to both East and West. We are a much governed people but have shown ourselves to be governable.²

In political terms, Australia is considered on the international stage to be a great, young democracy that ‘punches well above its weight’ (see Evans 2018). Australian citizens are free; our parliament is a strong custodian of democratic values; our liberty is the envy of our region; and our system of justice is robust and fair. The guardians of our security—the police and defence service—are trusted and in the main, subject to democratic, legal control. We also have a world-ranked public service that is an impartial steward of public trust; our cities are among the most liveable in the world;³ against all the odds Australia’s Indigenous communities maintain a proud identity; and, our media are brave and honest.

These beliefs and practices, however, are increasingly threatened. There is mounting evidence compiled in this volume of the increasing disconnect between government and citizen reflected in the decline of democratic satisfaction and trust in politicians, political parties, media and other key institutions, and the erosion of public confidence in the capacity of governments (of whatever kind) to address public policy concerns. Academics and political commentators alike bemoan the inability of Australia’s increasingly isolated political class to grapple with policy fundamentals and facilitate collaborative problem-solving across the federation.⁴

Four of the last five Australian prime ministers since the end of the Howard era have failed to achieve their big-ticket items in government and inspire the national imagination. While it is clearly too early to pass judgement on Scott Morrison’s tenure, over the past decade we have witnessed the slow death of the politics of contentment that have traditionally underpinned Australia’s allegiant democratic culture, bolstered by 27 years of economic growth. Australia’s nation-building project is in limbo.

Today, the gap between how Australians perceive their politicians and political institutions and how they would like their democracy to be has widened to such a degree that we need to pause, listen, and reflect on what our political system needs to do to adapt to the realities of 21st-century governance.

From Turnbull to Morrison: the Trust Divide assesses the records of the Coalition governments under Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison since the 2016 federal election. Following this introductory chapter, which sets out the parameters of debate, the volume is organised into five sections:

1 governing contexts

2 institutions

3 policy issues

4 perspectives on the 2019 federal election

5 leadership.

The book concludes with an exploration of what present Prime Minister Scott Morrison and future prime ministers can do to bridge the trust divide between government and citizen in Australia.

Sins of omission

Given this volume’s space constraints, we have had to be selective in the topics that we consider. The key criterion for selection was to focus on institutions, policies and processes where there was an evidence base to examine issues of continuity and change. We also made a deliberate decision to focus more on contested policy issues than on institutions that were largely in a holding pattern during the period of study. In addition, we focused greater attention than normal on the 2019 federal election to get a clearer sense of emerging policy agendas. Ideally, we would have spent more time on crisis management in response to drought and floods—an area where Australia continues to lead best practice internationally but struggles politically to make policy for the long term. We also would have liked to devote greater attention to the Council of Australian Governments, which should play a central role in setting the long-term policy agenda. There follows a more detailed synopsis of the book’s contents.

Governing contexts

Part 1 provides an introduction to the governing contexts that shaped the Turnbull–Morrison administrations. In essence, governing context provides us with an understanding of the complex environment that influences how policy and institutional decisions take place (Pollitt 2013). In this section, we focus on the social context and the problem of declining trust between government and citizen (Mark Evans, Max Halupka and Gerry Stoker) and political parties (John Warhurst), the macro and micro-economic budgetary contexts (Mark Evans and Jinjing Li), and developments in the global and international contexts through an exploration of Australian foreign policy (Susan Harris Rimmer).

Three contextual themes loom large in this discussion. First, there is the problem of declining public trust in an increasingly isolated political class. It is observed that distrust is driving risk aversion in policy practice and undermining the problem-solving capability of Australian government. Second, despite an extensive period of economic growth and the rise of a culture of contentment, we are witnessing a growing sense of economic insecurity and the need for Australia to transition to a new economic future so that it addresses pressing long-term policy challenges, including those associated with demographic change, slow productivity growth, climate change, social exclusion and the Asian century. However, electorally vulnerable governments appear unwilling to focus on ‘wicked’ economic problems when there is no burning platform for change such as the global financial crisis. And third, Australia is also experiencing significant uncertainty in global affairs. This has been exacerbated by the wrangling over Brexit in Europe and a disruptive Trump presidency which is undermining Australia’s political relationship with China, its main trading partner.

In sum, significant constraints and opportunities for change have emerged in the governing environment that require urgent attention, but thus far there has been a limited policy response from the Turnbull–Morrison governments to these challenges.

Institutions

Part 2 assesses issues of continuity and change in the context of declining public trust in many of Australia’s key institutions. The role of institutions in enabling and resisting change has been a central focus of study in the contemporary social sciences (North 1991; Ostrom 1990). This section explores a set of institutions that provide key insights into the period of study, including chapters on the Constitution (Harry Hobbs and George Williams), the federation (Jacob Deem and Anne Tiernan), the media (Matthew Ricketson, Katharine Murphy and Patrick Mullins), Labor in opposition (Michelle Grattan) and the Australian Public Service (John Halligan).

Four key institutional themes emerge from this discussion. The first theme is the challenge posed to the notion of the separation of powers by the highly public breakdown of trust between key institutional actors, including Attorney-General George Brandis (2013–17) and Solicitor-General Justin Gleeson (2013–16), and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull (2015–18) and Australian Human Rights Commission President Gillian Triggs (2012–17). This trust deficit was further compounded by mounting evidence of the politicisation of the judiciary through Liberal Party patronage. In addition, there is evidence of the increasing politicisation of the Australian Public Service and threats to its independence posed by ministerial interference in senior appointments.

The second theme is one of constitutional containment and the failure to make progress on key constitutional issues, including Indigenous recognition and the government’s rejection of the ‘Uluru Statement from the Heart’, and the section 44 eligibility crisis. The latter led to the disqualification of 17 members from parliament, which further undermined trust in political parties but also drew attention to the unrepresentative composition of the Australian Parliament at a time when 26 per cent of Australia’s citizens were born overseas (ABS 2018).

The third theme is described in this volume by Jacob Deem and Anne Tiernan as the problem of the ‘Canberra bubble’ and the stark political disconnect between urban, regional and rural Australia, which played out so dramatically during the 2019 federal election. This political disconnect has been reinforced in recent decades by successive prime ministers using the Commonwealth’s financial dominance to impose on policy domains that were traditionally the province of the states. In the process, Australia has become one of the most centralised federal states in the world at a time when the political instinct in most mature liberal democracies is towards decentralisation.

The fourth theme is characterised by the Rand Corporation as the problem of ‘truth decay’, a phrase used to describe the loss of trust in data, analysis and objective facts in political life (Kavanagh & Rich 2018). This includes increasing disagreement about facts and analytical interpretations of facts and data; the blurring of the line between opinion and fact; the burgeoning volume, and resulting influence, of opinion and personal experience over fact; and declining trust in formerly respected sources of factual information. These trends undermine the legitimacy of the free press (and other media) to play its crucial role in liberal democracy as a fundamental check on executive power. In 2019, Australia dropped out of the top 20 of the 2019 World Press Freedom Index, which assesses the level of press freedom afforded to journalists (Reporters without Borders 2019). The index, produced by the NGO Reporters without Borders, placed Australia at 21 out of 180 countries. The disturbing combination of toxic social media, news by algorithm, declining civic discourse and information being used as a weapon in a war of ideas has serious implications for governments and the quality of democratic practice.

In sum, the legitimacy of Australia’s constitutional settlement and the integrity of some of its key institutions are experiencing a profound challenge.

Key policy issues

Part 3 includes chapters on the key items of the policy agenda under the Turnbull–Morrison governments. This includes social policy (Brenton Prosser and John Butcher), population and immigration (Liz Allen), gender politics and policy (Virginia Haussegger and Pia Rowe), same-sex marriage (Michael Vaughan), digital transformation (Patrick Dunleavy and Mark Evans), Australian cities (Richard Hu), regional Australia (Andrew Beer), energy policy (Tony Wood) and the ‘Uluru Statement from the Heart’ (Megan Davis). The key theme underpinning much of this analysis is one of policy inertia and lost opportunity. This is often associated with the short-term reactionary nature of policy development and the limited impact of evidence-based policymaking on the core policy agenda (Stoker & Evans 2016).

There have been three exceptions to this rule. Two are the historic amendment of the federal Marriage Act on 9 December 2017, giving same-sex couples the same right to marry as heterosexual couples, and the remarkable strides in online public service delivery that have been achieved since 2016. Notably, both of these achievements required a source of disruptive change—a quasi-plebiscite in the case of same-sex marriage and the fourth industrial revolution in the case of digital transformation. The third exception is the policy transfer of the concept of ‘City Deals’ from the United Kingdom. It is easy to see why the City Deal concept resonated with the Turnbull agenda. The potential of the Australian city region as a centripetal catalyst for economic growth is both in keeping with the gravity of international evidence and the demographic changes articulated in the 2015 Intergenerational Report, which forecast a range of significant productivity problems arising from shifts in demography, workforce and participation. It is still too early to evaluate the success of Australia’s City Deals, but the intervention has been based on some evidence of achievement as demonstrated in the renaissance of Manchester and Glasgow.

Perspectives on the 2019 Australian federal election

Part 4 explores some of the key campaign, policy and leadership issues in the 2019 Australian federal election, partly because they provide us with insights into leadership styles and emerging policy agendas, and partly because they tell us about important attitudinal changes within Australian communities. George Megalogenis’ vignette ‘The Shock of the New Normal’, for example, tells us why Morrison’s victory shouldn’t have surprised the major parties. Michelle Grattan and Jane Seaborn’s story of the independents using longitudinal focus group data explains why an increasing number of Australians are turning away f...