Kashmir "Face-Off" India's Quandary

Options for India

A K Ganguly

• Publisher: VIJ Books (India) Pty Ltd
• Year: 2021
• ISBN:
  9789390439614
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Politique et relations internationales
• Subtopic: Politique

The book 'Kashmir Face-Off India's Quandary' is about Kashmir. How it remained in the suspended, animated state since 1947 in three parts Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, China Occupied Kashmir and rightfully held Indian Jammu and Kashmir. So many years have passed in status quo state and none of the actors is ready to budge an inch.The legal status of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) as per the documentary evidence and seconded by the British Empire, the day the Maharaja of the State signed the Accord of Accession in 1947 October. This had made both Pakistan and China not recognising the accord. Pakistan invaded India to take by force J&K, Indian Army drove out the invading forces, but as ceasefire came into being certain territories were still held by Pakistan. Same was the case with China who in 1962 captured Aksai Chen and never returned it to India.These occupied territories were and have been used in fermenting problems and instability, based on communal lines with a view to breakaway Kashmir from India. With the abrogation of special status which Pakistan and China have been exploiting, both these countries got the jolt which they were never expecting. It was for the first time India declared the occupied territories as part of India in August 2019 and put the reclamation of the same. In this book, the modus, modalities and way out have been discussed to get back all the occupied territories, even at the cost of going in for forced reclamation. The narrative has been made interesting with Maps and debating the pros and cons, where India stands and what it must do to improving its posturing of reclamations.

Chapter - IV

STAGE - II

Get Back Occupied Areas

“If you were to choose between an evil person and a snake to keep company with, opt for the snake, because the snake will bite you only in self defence. But the evil person will bite for any reason and any time and always.”

~Chanakya

This is the stage where; the will and power of the Indian Government is going to matter and be tested. The seriousness with regard to decisions and the obtainable outcome will matter, as it will be affecting the geopolitical imperatives, change the strategic scenario and impact the political and diplomatic equations. This stage will definitely having issues, which will bring absolute and final outcome as well as change the dynamics in the political environment in the subcontinent and India in particular. The containment and consolidation phases to certain extent will continue to operate in Stage II also. Before coming to Stage-II India should have created and changed the world perception on the issue of Kashmir in its favour; here the issue of nuclear flash point and threshold will be the hold back factor, this need to be tackled getting onboard the powers which really matters. Stage II will not be an easy ballgame, lot of National and International fall outs will be occurring, each of which has to be dealt suitably and with firmness.

The options which will be available in the case of getting back the occupied areas will require prioritisation as both Pakistan and China are equally involved, this will depend on the capability to address two fronts or tackle sequentially first with Pakistan and then China. In my opinion it would be prudent to address both differently and in this Pakistan comes first followed by China, however while going in for Pakistan first option, its strategic partner China involving itself cannot be totally be overruled, then India will not have any other options but to take on both the fronts simultaneously. The options which are available with India in respect of Pakistan is; firstly, diplomatically compel Pakistan to hand over the occupied areas having bilateral talks followed by international intervention while carrying on with containment and consolidation, secondly, creating situation in Pakistan for its dismemberment or one can call it balkanisation of Pakistan and thus taking back the occupied areas, thirdly, get declared Pakistan as terrorist State and along with international intervention of ‘fight against terrorism’ get back the occupied areas or with international mediation get the occupied areas back and lastly, taking occupied territories militarily. All the options have their pros and cons, this is where the Indian think tanks have to balance out and assess the risk involved in each of the options. Therefore, lot of pragmatism and expediency has to be there, while advising the Indian Government.

The factors which will be playing predominant part in any of the option will be appreciation and study, understanding of the applicability of the appreciation, tasking and responsibilities to each participating force, ensuring availability of power and force multipliers and lastly the political will to go on with the selected option. Each of the factors has to be supported and contingencies worked out. The country has to be economically sound and must have adequate reserves; diplomacy will play an important role here. Compatibility of the participants and the State resources has to be synergised, capability has to be built up and effective command and monitoring mechanism made operative. The exercise will be something on military lines of appreciation of battle plan, aim and terms of reference identification, ground factors study, interpretation of inferences and deductions, assessment of the relative strength and calculations of the time and contingencies, all these will give out series of courses, these courses are required to be compared with pros and cons or advantages and disadvantages and lastly selection of most appropriate course of action which covers the complete gambit of operations including catering for contingencies in case cons i.e. disadvantages or negatives become hindrance so that the same can be addressed in the pre-planned manner. This is a simple process but has complexities and at national level it becomes more complicated as agencies involved are multifarious and in numbers. Whatever be the option thought of or adopted by the think tanks and at Prime Minister Office level, the ultimate decision will be political. Except for the military solution, all options are long drawn affair and will require continuity, it should not so happen with change of government the plans get changed or there is back-out, then all efforts will be in vain and the issue of Kashmir will continue to exist. India in that case will have to live with status quo as existing today for years to come and forget about occupied Jammu and Kashmir.

The initiative taken by ‘Modi’ Government is the first of its type in last 70 odd years; it is the first Government who has reclaimed all occupied territories. In the last 70 odd years 60 years were Congress rule in India since the partition in 1947, it was Congress doing due to which the areas were occupied, first by Pakistan in 1947-48 and China in 1962, never was any attempt made to get back these occupied territories. India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru who commented when China did not return the captured Aksai Chin “what we are going to do, where a single blade of grass does not grow”, this attitude continued with Congress, it was only Narshima Rao who had taken some initiative but the same got sidelined during Manmohan Singh’s premiership. The interposed Governments were busy with the party politics and alliances, thus did not have time to think about it, this was applicable to both Janata Dal and Bharatiya Janata Party under Atal Bihari Bajpai’s premiership. Now the present Government under Modi have shown the willpower and determination to get back the occupied territories both from Pakistan and China.

The aspect of China, I will cover in the next Chapter, in this Chapter I am covering exclusively Pakistan and the occupied Jammu and Kashmir. The options which I will be discussing can be individualistic and sequential or can be concurrently linked with all the options to make it a viable plan of action.

Option –I Diplomatic Offensive

This is the option where the world has to be convinced about the legitimacy of the demand to reclaim the occupied territories, legally the accession of whole of Jammu and Kashmir (as per the mapped boundaries of British India) to India was signed by the ruler of the State Maharaja Hari Singh (historically and politically documented). The Instrument of Accession is a legal document executed by Maharaja Hari Singh, ruler of the Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir, on 26 October 1947. By executing this document under the provisions of the Indian Independence Act 1947, Maharaja Hari Singh agreed to accede to the Dominion of India. There is no doubt here as the law of majority was not applicable, however the will of the ruler was very much there and in his wisdom decided to join India which was very much part of the Indian Independence Act of 1947.

In the diplomatic front there are two basic factions, the United Nations (UN) and the power lobby. Falling back to the UN again will not be worth it, till China is part of the Security Council, earlier also UN could not resolve the Kashmir issue and it went into the backburner. However the assertion and denials as being done in UN and giving apt reply to Pakistan whenever the issue of Kashmir is raised in any UN forum, this must continue to keep the interest of India alive to declare Pakistan as aggressor State which occupied part of Jammu and Kashmir in 1947, and supporting fundamentalist Muslim terrorism against Indian Kashmir, Proxy War since 1989-90 and the Khalistan terror movement of Indian Punjab since 1984. UN must be reminded of terror attacks on India from Pakistan soil and overt support to terrorist organisation. Pakistan Army and ISI have been the master mind behind terrorist renegades who have taken shelter in Pakistan, and in instigation of Jihad for Azadi in Kashmir. Even though the chances of any initiative coming out of UNO, but keeping alive the reclamation demand of occupied territories, must continue. This will put pressure on Pakistan, as well as on China.

The next important aspect of diplomacy is the pan Islamic confederations and organisations. Pakistan being an Islamic country will always look to make use of the Islamic countries, confederations and organisations to put the issue of ‘Kashmir’ on religious and communal lines. The diplomacy here will be to isolate Pakistan in the Muslim world; this is going to be no easy task as the word ‘Islam’ makes the issue a matter of unison subsistence of Islamic countries against the others. India has been trying for some time especially under ‘Modi’ Government, but the results are not very satisfactory. Muslim countries are still contributing for ‘Kashmir’ in terms of donations and supporting the call of ‘Jihad’. Most important will be to isolate Pakistan and take the agenda of ‘Kashmir’ out of not only Islamic States confederations but the world forums also.

The diplomatic offensive has to be astute and sustained with no let up. India has always been considered as tolerant and magnanimous country, this is taken as weakness and many exploit it, it all started from Nehru era and continued thereafter for 70 odd years. It was only during Indra Gandhi’s premiership during 1971 that Indian diplomacy was proactive and aggressive. It is for the first time that under Modi’s premiership that diplomatic initiative has been taken to create an impression and make position of India clear. In the present context of Jammu and Kashmir and the abrogation of Article 370 and 35 A of Indian Constitution, being termed as internal affair of India in the international arena, this is a great achievement of the government and was made possible by diplomacy initiatives of Premier Modi. India has to intensify the diplomatic offensive, some of the issues which can put pressure on Pakistan and make it recoil, are: -

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  The economic and the financial support of the Islamic States to be made conditional with the term India, return of occupied territories and non interference in Kashmir. Throttling Islamic States economic and financial support to Pakistan is one of the ways out, especially by the powerful...