Climate Change and Pacific Islands: Indicators and Impacts

Report for the 2012 Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment

Victoria Keener, John J. Marra, Melissa L. Finucane, Deanna Spooner, Margaret H. Smith, Victoria Keener, John J. Marra, Melissa L. Finucane, Deanna Spooner, Margaret H. Smith

• Publisher: Island Press
• Year: 2013
• Print ISBN:
  9781610914277
• eBook ISBN:
  9781610914598
• Topic: Biological Sciences
• Subtopic: Urban Planning & Landscaping
• Index: Biological Sciences

Prepared for the 2013 National Climate Assessment and a landmark study in terms of its breadth and depth of coverage, Climate Change and the Pacific Islands was developed by the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment, a collaborative effort engaging federal, state, and local government agencies, non-government organizations, academician, businesses, and community groups to inform and prioritize their activities in the face of a changing climate. The book assesses the state of knowledge about climate change indicators, impacts, and adaptive capacity of the Hawaiian archipelago and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands.
 
The book provides the basis for understanding the key observations and impacts from climate change in the region, including the rise in surface air and sea-surface temperatures, along with sea levels, and the changes in ocean chemistry, rainfall amount and distribution, weather extremes, and widespread ecosystem changes.
 
Rich in science and case studies, it examines the latest climate change impacts, scenarios, vulnerabilities, and adaptive capacity and offers decision makers and stakeholders a substantial basis from which to make informed choices that will affect the well-being of the region’s inhabitants in the decades to come.

Chapter 1

Pacific Islands Region Overview

COORDINATING LEAD AUTHORS*

Melissa L. Finucane (East-West Center, Pacific RISA), Victoria W. Keener (East-West Center, Pacific RISA), John J. Marra (NOAA NCDC), Margaret H. Smith (East-West Center, Pacific RISA)

CASE STUDY CONTRIBUTORS*

Maxine Burkett (ICAP), Victoria W. Keener (East-West Center, Pacific RISA), Margaret H. Smith (East-West Center, Pacific RISA), Noriko Shoji (NOAA NMFS)

CONTRIBUTORS*

Jeff Burgett (PICCC), Miguel Castrence (East-West Center), Howard Diamond (NOAA NCDC), Stanton Enomoto (PICCC), Lucas Fortini (PICCC), Kevin Hamilton (IPRC, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa), Dawn Kotowicz (NOAA PIFSC), Kenneth E. Kunkel (NOAA NCDC, North Carolina State University), Rachel L. Miller (East-West Center, Pacific RISA), Stephen E. Miller (USFWS), Britt Parker (NOAA CRCP), Deanna Spooner (PICCC), Adam Stein (NOAA PSC), Laura E. Stevens (NOAA NCDC, North Carolina State University)

*LISTED IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER

The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the US Fish and Wildlife Service.

This Chapter should be cited as:

Finucane, M. L., Marra, J. J., Keener, V. W., & Smith, M. H. (2012). Pacific Islands Region Overview. In V. W. Keener, J. J. Marra, M. L. Finucane, D. Spooner, & M. H. Smith (Eds.), Climate Change and Pacific Islands: Indicators and Impacts. Report for the 2012 Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA). Washington, DC: Island Press.

Region profile

The Pacific Islands region includes the Hawaiian archipelago and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI). More than 2,000 islands are distributed across millions of square miles of the Pacific Ocean. The islands are isolated, with hundreds of miles of ocean between individual islands and thousands of miles between island chains. The largest aggregate of land is the State of Hawai’i, with 6,423 square miles (the fourth smallest state in the US). The islands are diverse in terms of geography, climate, ecology, and culture. The ocean and its resources play a vital role in the lives and livelihoods of the peoples of the Pacific Islands region. The combined exclusive economic zones (EEZ) of the region’s islands encompass more than one-half of the entire EEZ of the US, making this region of great importance not just to Pacific Islanders, but to the US as a whole. The region is home to some of the most pristine habitat in the world and possesses tremendous biodiversity; thus, it is of immeasurable value to all people on the planet.

In this report, the islands in the region are grouped into three sub-regions (Figure 1-1), with affinities in terms of geography, climate, ecology, and sociology.

• Central North Pacific (CNP) – This area includes the State of Hawai’i and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (Papahānaumokuākea). It represents the northern bounds of Polynesia.
• Western North Pacific (WNP) – This area includes the Mariana, Caroline, and Marshall island chains: Guam; Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI); Republic of Palau (RP); Federated States of Micronesia (FSM, including the states of Chuuk, Kosrae, Pohnpei, and Yap); and Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). This area is also referred to as Micronesia.
• Central South Pacific (CSP) – This area includes American Sāmoa, but consideration is given to the South Pacific in general.

Pacific Island geology and landscape

The islands of the region vary widely in terms of geologic origin. They include volcanic islands, atolls, limestone islands, and islands of mixed geologic type. The highest volcanic islands reach more than 13,000 feet, while some of the atoll islands peak at only a few feet above present sea level. The distinction between “high” islands and “low” atoll islands is essential to explain the different climates on islands and the many specialized terrestrial and marine ecosystems that have evolved, as well as the forms of human communities they currently support (Figure 1-2).

The terrain of high islands is characterized by abrupt elevation changes (mountains, sheer cliffs, steep ridges and valleys), with the altitude and size of these features varying according to the age of the island. On high islands, orographic rainfall (i.e., rain associated with or induced by the presence of mountains) can cause the island to receive much higher rainfall all than the surrounding ocean and is responsible for large differences between leeward and windward rainfall. The landscape on high islands is conducive to the formation and persistence of freshwater streams and the development of soils that can support large and diverse plant and animal populations. In contrast, the low atoll islands are small and flat. They are not tall enough to generate orographic rain, and thus the amount of rainfall on low islands is close to that for the surrounding ocean. The atolls generally lack the freshwater and fertile soils that are characteristic of volcanic islands and have limited terrestrial resources. Low islands are especially prone to drought, but their varied coral reef, mangrove, and lagoon environments support rich marine ecosystems.

Figure 1-1 Map of the Pacific Islands region and sub-regions. The region includes the Hawaiian archipelago and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands and comprises the Central North Pacific (blue), Western North Pacific (light orange), Central South Pacific (light green), and the islands of the Pacific Remote Island Marine National Monument (dark orange). Shaded areas indicate each island’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). (Courtesy of Miguel Castrence, East-West Center.)

Because high islands have more land and freshwater resources than low islands do, they have more long-term options for responding to changes in sea level, rainfall, and other climate variables. The amount of land on volcanic islands that is flat enough for large-scale settlement, development, and agriculture is limited, however, resulting in high concentrations of population, infrastructure, and commercial development in low-lying coastal areas. Thus, while communities on high islands and low islands have somewhat similar short-term challenges associated with climate change, they have different degrees of flexibility in how they can adapt.

Figure 1-2 Examples of high and low islands. The Pacific Islands region includes high islands that may rise to more than 13,000 feet above sea level, as well as low islands that are only a few feet above present sea level. (Left: Ko’olau Mountains, © 2008 kstrebor, “Koolau Mountains windward side-HDR,” used under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs license. Right: Laysan Island, courtesy of Andy Collins, NOAA.)

Pacific Island peoples, governments, and economies

The Pacific Islands region includes demographically, culturally, and economically diverse communities. The first settlers of Micronesia traveled from the Philippines and Indonesia around 4,000 years ago to settle the islands of the Republic of Palau, the Mariana archipelago, and possibly Yap. A second wave of later settlers traveled approximately 2,000 years ago from southeast Melanesia, possibly the Solomon Islands, north past Kiribati, settling the Marshall Islands and then moving west through the Caroline archipelago until they met the earlier settlers in the area of western Chuuk and Yap (Rainbird, 2004). The settlement of the Polynesian region began with the early Austronesian ancestors from Taiwan approximately 5,000 years ago (Gray et al., 2009). Over thousands of years, these early settlers traveled west through Sāmoa, Fiji, and Tonga in western Polynesia before reaching the Cook, Society, Tuamoto, and Marquesas archipelagos in eastern Polynesia. The first permanent settlers of Hawai’i sailed north from this area, reaching the Hawaiian Islands approximately 1,200 years ago (Graves & Addison, 1995; Vitousek et al., 2004).

Contact with Europeans began with Magellan’s fleet, which landed at Guam in 1521, and continued for the following four centuries under multiple colonial powers. Today, islands with ties to the US are home to nearly 1.9 million people, with most (nearly 1.4 million) living in Hawai’i. The majority of the island populations are composed of diverse indigenous Pacific Islander communities, intermingled with immigrants mostly from Asia, Europe, North America, Australia, and New Zealand. At least 20 languages are spoken in the region. On many islands, a large proportion of the population is rural. As rural communities often depend on agriculture and other environmentally sensitive practices, they are extremely vulnerable to weather and climate conditions.

The islands have varied histories of governance. A series of foreign countries have, at different times, governed most island chains or individual islands. Contemporary social systems throughout the region vary widely, with traditional Micronesian or Polynesian rules and institutions mixed with those adopted from colonizing countries. In Hawai’i and Guam, cash economies are highly developed, relatively few people rely on subsistence agriculture or fishing, and western legal systems dominate. In American Sāmoa and throughout Micronesia, traditional cultural systems govern behavior and traditional political structures are in place. Tribal systems led by chiefs have a large influence on decision making in the RMI, the FSM, and American Sāmoa (Petersen, 2009).

Pacific Island populations share a cultural value that links society and the environment. Resource management and conservation are essential for healthy, stable communities on islands with limited resources because overexploitation could damage or permanently destroy resources. A key value for survival in Hawai’i, for instance, is mālama ’āina, which means caring for the land (Kawaharada, 2011). In general, Pacific Island cultures recognize the value and relevance of their cultural heritage and systems of traditional knowledge and customary law developed within their social, cultural, and natural contexts (e.g., Gegeo & Watson-Gegeo, 2001). At the same time, contemporary island communities reflect diverse ancestries that, over time, have blended to create new cultural values. There is an emphasis on long-term connection with lands and resources, with multigenerational attachment to places (Gegeo, 2001; Teddy, Nikora, & Guerin, 2008). Climate change threatens the physical, biological, a...

Table of contents

• Cover
• About Island Press
• Half-title
• Copyright
• About This Series
• About This Report
• Executive Summary
• Hawai’i Governer’s Letter
• Title Page
• PIRCA CORE TEAM
• Contents
• List of Figures, Tables, and Boxes
• List of Abbreviations
• Chapter 1: Pacific Islands Region Overview
• Chapter 2: Freshwater and Drought on Pacific Islands
• Chapter 3: Sea Level and Coastal Inundation on Pacific Islands
• Chapter 4: Marine, Freshwater, and Terrestrial Ecosystems on Pacific Islands
• Chapter 5: Conclusions
• Appendix A: Glossaries Related to Weather and Climate in the Pacific Islands
• Appendix B: Future Regional Climate: Modeling and Projections
• Appendix C: Members of the Pacific Assessment Core Science Team
• Appendix D: Members of the Pacific Assessment Steering Committee
• Appendix E: PIRCA Water and Drought Technical Workshop, November 17, 2011
• Appendix F: PIRCA Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Inundation Extremes: Methodologies, Indicators, Impacts, and Visualization Workshop, January 10–12, 2012
• Appendix G: PIRCA Ecosystems Technical Workshop, January 18–19, 2012
• Appendix H: Summary of Workshop Evaluations
• References