Infrastructure Development – Theory, Practice and Policy
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Infrastructure Development – Theory, Practice and Policy

Sustainability and Resilience

Rachna Gangwar, Astha Agrawalla, Sandhya Sreekumar, Rachna Gangwar, Astha Agrawalla, Sandhya Sreekumar

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eBook - ePub

Infrastructure Development – Theory, Practice and Policy

Sustainability and Resilience

Rachna Gangwar, Astha Agrawalla, Sandhya Sreekumar, Rachna Gangwar, Astha Agrawalla, Sandhya Sreekumar

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About This Book

This compendium presents the papers presented in the conference 'Infrastructure Development Theory, Practice, and Policy' held on 29th and 30th April, 2021. It brings together the select papers from the conference and other contributions from experts and researchers. The compendium puts together the research under various themes, and we hope that the theoretical findings will impact the practice and policy in the future, as well as pave the way for future research in the direction of achieving more efficient, and more humane infrastructure.

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Publisher
Routledge
Year
2022
ISBN
9781000630848

The Quest for a Green Economy in India – The Policy Quagmire

Sebastian Morris1
Senior Professor Goa Institute of Management
DOI: 10.4324/9781003311157-1
1 Former Professor at Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (email: [email protected])

1 INTRODUCTION

In this brief, we review India’s commitment to reduce the emission of green house gases (GHG). We also argue that India in unique among the large countries for having sacrificed its own national interest in committing to an emission reductions that would in all likelihood make the average emission per Indian lower than that of most countries. This magnanimous commitment imposes large unwarranted costs on the economy, since it comes at too early a stage of development of the economy, and its achievement is based on the continuing exclusion of large masses of its people from the process of economic development. It would also most likely stand in the way of the country being able to penetrate the middle income barrier.
Many of the policy initiatives are laudable and can be considered successful in terms of their own narrow objective of reducing GHG emitting energy. We review the more important of these developments.
However, what is being ignored, is the large potential to reduce GHGs by removing the allocative price distortions of energy, and water embodying energy in its use in the agricultural sector. The expensive, electric vehicle strategy can be justified on ensuring that India does not miss the technology and manufacturing of EVs, and less on the GHG emission over the medium term. There can be significant reductions in GHG if the modal of surface transport increases for rail, as it would be the simple action of correctly pricing rail freight, which may well be even above the revenue maximizing rate! There are many low hanging fruits, which are ignored by both policy makers and much of the academia.

2 INDIA’S COMMITMENT AND NATIONAL INTEREST

India is almost unique in having pursued highly visible policies for a green economy, when at a level of income that is one of the lowest in the world. Unlike most middle income countries, and in sharp contrast to the east Asian tigers, its commitment happens at a very early stage in its transformation where the inclusion of the masses into the development process has yet to take place. The commitments have come from popular leaders and has been a top down process. Indian prime ministers have almost without exception committed to GHG reductions and have upped the targets in recent years. India’s own commitment to reduce GHGs is indeed very ambitious and altruistic. Thus “India has maintained that it is not a polluter and cause of climate change and has voluntarily committed to reducing greenhouse gas emission intensity of its GDP by 33–35 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030” (Economic Times, 2021). In contrast China which is the largest emitter of GHGs in its recent very aggressive reduction targets would peak at 2030 with a zero emission by 2060. Similarly, “China’s emission projections from current policies have been revised downward during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. If implemented, current policies would result in GHG emission levels of 12.9-14.7 GtCO2e/year in 2030. With these policies, China is expected to achieve its 2020 pledge and 2030 NDC targets” (Climate Action Tacker, 2021).
The difference is best indicated by the per head emission in 2030. India in all likelihood has committed itself to a target that is just about a fifth that of China. This is a tremendous sacrifice of the interests of the Indian people when we recognise that a democratically elected government has made this commitment. We have forecasted India’s GDP to grow from 2014 at six percent as also China’s. China’s ability to hold on to a GDP growth of 6%, even with a massive top-down induced change in its production structure, towards a green economy is beyond doubt. The Indian economy had slowed down to under 4.5% even before the COVID Crisis and is likely to recover at a slower rate. These would imply that the gap between the two in 2030 may be even larger than the forecasted 5:1 (Morris, 2020). And worse than what the table below since a considerable part of India’s GHG current estimates are based on its substantial methane emissions from its large cattle population2. In reality, methane should not be counted at its greenhouse value which is around 10 times for CO2 but only at 1 or a little more since the half-life of methane is around 12 years, which means that its impact is temporary and would not cumulate unlike for CO2, methane’s contribution should be adjusted for its half-life. When global warming is known to be the result of accumulation over the last two centuries or more the value of a molecule becomes close to that of carbon and no more.
2 C.2015 its overall emissions at 2.7 tonnes per capita was lower than that of Indonesia (9.2), UK (7.8) a post industrial society, US (20.4), Brazil (5.6) an economy in the middle income trap for long, China (9.0), and EU (8.1). The world average was (7.0). The share of methane in India’s GHGs was a high 23% while for the world as a whole it was around 15.5% (Timperley, 2019).
GHG Emissions of China and India (Actual and Targets) in Relation to Population and GDP
2005 2014 2030
China CO2e emissions (million tonnes) 7000 13000 14700
GDP in 2019 USD (trillion) 2 10 27
Emission intensity (tonne per million USD) 3057 1240 537
Population (million) 1307 1367 1450
Emission intensity per person (tonne) 5.36 9.51 10.14
India CO2e emissions (million tonnes) 1643 2306 3915
GDP in 2019 USD (trillion) 1 2 5
Emission intensity (tonne per million USD) 1226 1130 735
Population (million) 1150 1296 1514
Emission intensity per person (tonne) 1.43 1.78 2.59
More importantly, India would still be in the early stages of its economic transition and just at lower to middle income levels, with the major task of overcoming the so called “middle income barrier”, which has dogged nearly all the Latin American economies. Given the inequity of the development process in India – it has one of the lowest labour participation rates – that barrier is real. It would require major reorientation of the development process towards inclusion – by an employment oriented high-speed growth – to have any chance of breaking this “barrier”. Emission reduction at an early stage of development when capital is scare is expensive, and reduces the potential of the country growing beyond middle income levels, and may reduce the prospects of overall ultimate reduction in energy use per person. Today when the internal income distribution is highly iniquitous in India, the energy consumption is even more so. That means that the per head consumption of the vast majority of Indians even in 2030 would be abysmally low in comparison to much of humanity. Africa with its land and resource endowment would then have overcome the levels of the median consumer in India.

3 CORE POLICIES TO REDUCE GHGS

Be that as it may, this statesmanship by India’s prime ministers, and widely lauded by its intelligentsia, gives direction to the economy. We bring out the principal policy thrusts of the government which are important in this drive to reduction of energy use intensity in production from the 2014 level of around 1200 tonnes per million 2019 US$ to about 735 by 2030.

3.1 BEE and white goods

India is one of the few countries that has a ministry of environment and non-conventional energy. It has over the years deployed large budgets to incentive the shift to solar, wind and non-conventional hydro power. It has also set in motion programmes like subsidizing the adoption of LEDs in lighting use, which have been quite successful. Others in the same vein have been star rating of equipment, laying out better standard in the use of energy and in overall performance of refrigerators, air conditioners and in electrical equipment in general. Given the Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEEs) approach of interacting with industry, and with a scientific orientation, the standards have spread with little cost to the economy. There has much success in bringing down the GHG emissions from white goods of a wide variety. The subsidization of CFLs and now LEDs has led to near total adoption of LEDs, high efficiency vapour lamps, which should have reduced the emission per lumen almost proportionately with the reduction in energy input. The dynamism of technology and the fast growth of the Indian white goods markets have also helped.

3.2 Buildings

However, when the actors are dispersed and are numerous its success have been meagre. This for instance has been the case with regard to construction. Architectural approaches in India remain extremely energy inefficient over the life cycle and heavy in the use of materials as well. The archaic standard designs of PWDs, the fact that the architectural profession does not have an engineering approach, and are paid on a percentage of construction cost, and functionality in contrast to “form and fashion” being of less value in “premier” high profile housing and institutional construction, are all parts of the problem. “Green” designs that are in the limelight, are almost entirely “small”, and veer to the romantic and traditional, are land intensive, have entirely bypassed multistory construction, and are out of question in densely populated urban locales. This set of factors limits the actual impact of a large number of highly motivated “green” architects, whose works remain small and more the exception. Lack of standard designs (the contrast with the town house innovation in the Western World during the middle of their economic transformation) also contributes. Independent house owners have to depend upon on an architect (with all his idiosyncrasies) or on masons and their “designs”. Low FSI with which Indian cities plan also impede functional architecture, and add to the inefficiency, for the same standard of living since the volume covered to surface area tends to be very small making air-conditioning very inefficient, when the need for air-conditioning is the highest in India. It is only the very low incomes of people that has kept the unit demand low for electricity for household cooling. In some of the richer cities like Delhi, the AC demand has been growing despite the very prices for households using ACs3.
3 AC demand is the fastest growing component of household today, as it should be.

3.3 Wind power

Perhaps the most important success has been in the areas of wind and solar power generation. In the case of wind the potential had been underestimated, because the CEA had worked with tower heights of only 50 mts, and with highly restrictive assumptions on the land availability. With higher 100m towers and with more realistic assumptions the potential went up and there has been significant development of wind power. Today the constraint is more in terms of scheduling, since often even wind generation has to be backed down, given the grid and demand limitations, not to speak of idling of thermal power plants.

3.4 Solar

In the case of solar, the developments have been quite remarkable. The first big push came with high feed-in tariffs which was almost at double the levels at which California at the same time procured solar power. Some 3000 MW may have been added at these unnecessarily high tariffs. The episode, though, may have had the benefit of bringing world attention to the commitment to solar in India. When the same gave way to bid-in tariffs with the ...

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