CHAPTER 1
Transformation of the U.S. Jobs Market
. . .the underemployment rate [among recent college graduates] rose somewhat sharply after both the 2001 and 2007ā09 recessions, and in each case, only partially retreated, resulting in an increase to roughly 44 percent by 2012.
āJaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, and Yaqin Su
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Key Points
⢠Higher levels of education directly correlate with higher employment rates and salaries.
⢠Employers increasingly require that new employees contribute immediately to the company, but are skeptical of whether many college graduates can do so.
⢠Underemployment is rampant, with an estimated 44 percent of recent graduates not getting jobs that require college degrees.
⢠Majors matter: science, technology, engineering, and mathematics; healthcare; and education graduates are much more likely to get jobsāespecially jobs that require college degrees.
⢠Up to 95 percent of jobs lost during the recession and recovery were among the middle-income type jobs that typically go to recent college grads. Virtually all job gains are going to workers at the top and bottom of the wage scale.
⢠The big winners will be those with high levels of highly differentiated skills. Average performers will lose big in the New Normal.
The Great Recession marked the end of an era. A college degree, long viewed as the passport to a stable, rewarding career and comfortable lifestyle, will no longer guarantee you a job. It certainly wonāt ensure a job in the field for which you have preparedāmuch less a predictable and secure career that allows you to pursue your passions and live a life of your own choosing.
Although reading this fact may be painful, you have to understand the future if you hope to prepare for it. You have to understand the odds, if you hope to beat them.
Employment Realities
Hundreds of studies portray and attempt to explain the current job market. Although each study has a somewhat different focus and comes up with somewhat different results (due to different assumptions, methodologies, and sampling bases), all agree that U.S. workers have taken a beating during the recent Great Recession (the economic downturn that began in June 2007). For example, although the nationās Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has surpassed prerecession levels, and corporate profits and stock markets have hit record highs, employment and wages remain far below their prerecession levels. The U.S. economy still employs fewer people than before the Great Recession. Real wages (after adjusting for inflation), meanwhile, are still below those of 1999!
All of these studies also agree on a number of other facts. For example:
⢠Young adults, as is often the case in recessions, have fared worse than their older counterparts. They are among the first to be laid off and the last to be hired or rehired. Compared to older and more experienced workers, they have higher unemployment rates, their time out of work is longer, their wages fall more rapidly, and they experience far worse underemployment (the ability to get a job that requires and makes use of their education). They are also less likely to get jobs that offer insurance, retirement contributions, and other benefits.
⢠Regardless of age, the higher oneās level of education, the more likely they are to be employed, earn higher wages, enjoy higher lifetime earnings, have longer life expectancies and lower divorce rates, and live in safer neighborhoods. Their children are also more likely to attend better schools and achieve higher levels of academic and economic success.
⢠Despite that U.S. educational attainment has reached record high levels (as of 2012, 33.5 percent of Americans aged 25 to 29 had at least a bachelorās degree), employers claim they face a continual shortage of workers with the skills they need and that even most college graduates are ill-prepared for todayās jobs.
⢠Workers with degrees in high-demand fields, such as healthcare, education, and one of the STEM fields (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics), are more likely to find employment that actually requires a college degree than are those with degrees in other fields.
Behind the Headlines
Letās look at a few findings from some of these reports and studies that illustrate the previous conclusions as well as provide a broad range of other insights important to those who hope to enter the workforce.
Consider, for example, unemployment rates. As shown in Figure 1.1, unemployment rates, as compiled in the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) Study āThe Class of 2013,ā are consistently higher for those under the age of 25 than for older workers. This gap between older and younger workers has grown greater since the Great Recession than at any time since 1970.
Education also plays a critical role in determining your prospects for getting a job and how much you will earn (see Chapter 7 for more details on this point). The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics2 neatly sums up the correlation between the level of education one achieves and their employment and earnings prospects (see Figure 1.2). This doesnāt mean that college grads will necessarily get jobs that match or make use of their education. However, when employers have a choice (and experience is not a deciding issue), they are more likely to hire and pay more to a candidate with a higher level of education. This education premium, which has doubled over the last 30 years, from $17,411 in 1979 to $34,969 in 2012, will continue to grow.3
Although unemployment rates are consistently higher for those under the age of 25 than for older workers, those with college degrees have significantly lower unemployment and higher wages than do those without.
Higher education certainly helps, but it does not guarantee a job. When comparing the linkage between education and employment across nine countries, for example, a McKinsey Center for Government study4 found that 48 percent of U.S. companies contend that a lack of candidate skills is an important reason for their inability to fill empty positions.
Accentureās 2013 Skills and Employment Trends Survey: Perspectives on Training5 confirmed these findings. Executives at 46 percent of surveyed large U.S. companies claimed concern that they wonāt have the skills their company will need in the next one to two years.6 Thirty-eight percent said they would hire more people if they could find qualified candidates.7 These skill gaps are twofold:
⢠Many applicants do not have the required hard skills (especially in IT, engineering, sciences, and sales).
⢠Even those that have these hard skills may lack soft skills such as leadership, written and oral communication, an entrepreneurial mindset, or the ability to drive change.
Recent graduates, in contrast, generally do believe their education has prepared them to get and succeed in jobs. According to Accentureās 2013 College Graduate Survey, 84 percent of surveyed 2012 graduates thought their investment in education was worthwhile and 70 percent of those who were employed thought it prepared them for their jobs.8 To the extent they did find it difficult to find a job, 48 percent thought it was primarily due to their major.9 Only 16 percent attributed it to deficiencies in their school. (In contrast, a 2012 McKinsey study found that ...