Lost in a Gallup
eBook - ePub

Lost in a Gallup

Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections

  1. 368 pages
  2. English
  3. ePUB (mobile friendly)
  4. Available on iOS & Android
eBook - ePub

Lost in a Gallup

Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections

About this book

This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections.

"W. Joseph Campbell's work always opens my eyes, challenging assumptions the world has turned into facts. Whenever I get a chance to read Campbell's work, I seize it."—Jake Tapper, CNN anchor

Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024. 

As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.

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Yes, you can access Lost in a Gallup by W. Joseph Campbell in PDF and/or ePUB format, as well as other popular books in History & North American History. We have over one million books available in our catalogue for you to explore.

Information

Publisher
University of California Press
Year
2024
Print ISBN
9780520397781
eBook ISBN
9780520397828
Edition
1
Topic
History
Subtopic
North American History
Index
History

Table of contents

  1. Series Page
  2. Title
  3. Copyright
  4. Dedication
  5. Epigraph
  6. Contents
  7. List of Figures, Tables, and Boxes
  8. Acknowledgments
  9. Introduction: Of Pollsters, Journalists, and Presidential Elections
  10. 1. Of Poll-Bashing Journalists and the “Babe Ruth” of Survey Research
  11. 2. “A Time of Polls Gone Mad”: The Literary Digest Debacle of 1936
  12. 3. “The Defeat of the Pollsters”: The Epic Fail of 1948
  13. 4. A Tie “Would Suit Them Fine”: The 1952 Landslide Pollsters Did Not Foresee
  14. 5. The “Close Race That Never Happened”: Miscalling the 1980 Election
  15. 6. “Television’s Version of ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’”: The Trifecta of 2000
  16. 7. “President Kerry”: Exit Polls Misfire in 2004
  17. 8. “Gallup vs. the World”: Pointing the Wrong Way in 2012
  18. 9. “The Night That Wasn’t Supposed to Happen”: The Shock Election of 2016
  19. 10. A “Stinking Pile of Hot Garbage”: Polls of 2020 Were the Worst in Forty Years
  20. Conclusion: Will It Happen Again?
  21. Notes
  22. Select Bibliography
  23. Index