Development Asia—A Growing Hunger

April–June 2010

• Publisher: Asian Development Bank
• Year: 2010
• ISBN:
  9789292574307
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: Agricultural Public Policy
• Index: Politics & International Relations

Perhaps no issue casts a harsher light on social inequities than the growing number of people who go hungry everyday. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), more people go hungry in the world today than at any time since 1970. An estimated 1.02 billion people were undernourished worldwide in 2009, 642 million of whom lived in Asia and the Pacific, the FAO reports. Access to food—or food security—has become an issue that no one can ignore; the lives of millions and the stability of governments depend on shrewd management of food supplies. As the riots and hoarding during the food crisis in 2008 have shown, the mere mention of a shortage is enough to destabilize markets and even governments. As usual, the poorest have been hit the hardest: they have faced rising food prices while the global economic crisis has battered their incomes. Declining crop yields, land degradation, urbanization, and the effects of climate change are putting additional pressure on efforts to produce more food. Market speculation makes the situation even more precarious. This edition of Development Asia tackles this critical issue from varied perspectives—from the points of view of science, civil society, and business. As its cover story, "A Growing Hunger", puts it, there is no quick, one-size-fits-all solution, especially for a region as geographically diverse as Asia and the Pacific. Building consensus is a huge, ongoing challenge for leaders, decision makers, and stakeholders in the region as they wrestle with conflicting priorities. In "The Hunger Monger", renowned financier Jim Rogers, an outspoken advocate of agricultural investments, acknowledges that food security is a highly emotional and political issue. He gives a candid interview on the perceived tension between business interests and social needs, and domestic and international concerns.

FOOD SECURITY: THE BIG READ

A Growing Hunger

Many regions are stricken by pollution, land degradation, and market dysfunction, yet newtechnologies and farmingtechniquesand a recommitment to agriculture may save millions from hunger

BY Bruce Heilbuth

PICTURE CREDIT:: AFP

WHOLESALE CHAOS People rush a truck loaded with sacks of discounted wheat in Pakistan in 2008.

SNAPSHOTS

When rice and grain prices in Asia rise 90%, the Government of the Philippines, the world’s largest rice importer, decides it can no longer rely on the international grain trade to supply its needs. In November 2009, the Philippines concludes contracts to buy 1.5 million tons of rice. “This is panic buying driven by mistrust,” writes The Economist. “In turn, India is negotiating directly with Thailand and Viet Nam for rice which would further reduce the tradable supply of an already thinly traded commodity.”

In Pakistan, organizations representing rural people are worried that small-scale farmers’access to food will be jeopardized if a deal to lease 200,000 hectares of farmland to Saudi Arabia goes ahead. The land will be used to grow food to help Saudi Arabia meet its own needs, reports the humanitarian news agency IRIN. “[It] will not benefit Pakistan in any way; it will aggravate the worsening agricultural crisis we face,” says Farooq Tariq, secretary of the Pakistan Kissan Rabita Committee, an alliance of 22 organizations representing rural people.

In the village of Liukuaizhuang in northeastern People’s Republic of China (PRC), 1 in 50 people has been diagnosed with cancer over the past decade, local residents say—over 10 times the national rate. Many fear they’re paying for economic expansion with their lives, as plants making rubber, chemicals, and paints are poisoning water and farmland, according to a Reuters report. “Pollutants including heavy metals [such as] mercury and lead have gotten into the food chain,” says Gao Zhong, an economist with a nongovernment organization.

As these snapshots indicate, all is not well with food supply systems in Asia, the region which, despite gains in poverty reduction in recent years, remains home to the world’s largest share of rural poor, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB). That’s about 1.2 billion people who spend on average 60% of their income on food.

Food supply security is a complex topic at the intersection of many disciplines, and the factors driving food insecurity in Asia are hugely diverse. While there are obviously no simple, quick, one-size-fits-all solutions for a region that includes 53 countries, most experts agree food availability and safety are issues of profound concern.

Still vivid are recollections of 2008, when a “perfect storm” of surging demand from the PRC and India, rising fuel costs, drought-induced shortages, demand for crop-based biofuels, and a declining US dollar caused food commodity prices to rocket. Things were made worse by short-term speculative stocking decisions as individual countries tried to address the instability by reacting to perceived shortages.

The 2008 spike has since subsided, yet prices of rice, wheat, corn, and edible oils remain well above the levels of 18 months ago and are likely to remain elevated and volatile for years to come, according to an ADB report in 2009. “This threatens to exacerbate poverty in developing Asia by reducing the real incomes of the already poor, while pushing many others below the poverty line,” it says.

PROBLEMS REMAIN

Of particular concern to Asian governments and development agencies is that none of the underlying agricultural problems that produced the 2008 emergency has gone away. Despite record cereal crops and good recent rice harvests in Viet Nam and Thailand, the supply situation is fragile and could deteriorate again just as suddenly.

PICTURE CREDIT: AFP

HARSH LANDSCAPE A vegetable vendor pushes a wheelbarrow to a market in Bagram, Afghanistan during winter. A recent United Nations study shows that Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Iran, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are losing at least $10 billion annually or 7% of the value of South Asia’s agricultural output due to land degradation.

Meanwhile, growth in production yields is declining across Asia. During the green revolution of the 1970s and 1980s, increasing yields accounted for about 70% of the growth in crop production in developing countries, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). But rice and grain yield growth is now slower than population growth, a phenomenon that’s been made worse by the changing composition of Asian diets as consumers demand more meat and dairy products.

“Since it takes several kilograms of grain to produce 1 kilogram of meat, this will make it even more difficult for farmers to keep pace with food demand,” says the FAO in a recent report.

“We almost never have enough to eat. My children often cry because they’re hungry”

—Hakeem-ud-din, a farmer in southern Punjab

Yet Asia’s population is increasing by more than 100,000 people a day, according to the FAO. ADB estimates more than 50% of the world’s growing demand for food will come from Asia, while climate change fears make predictions of crop growth patterns increasingly uncertain. At the same time, in the words of Josette Sheeran, executive director of the United Nation’s World Food Programme, “We have—in absolute numbers—more hungry people today than ever before.”

Take Hakeem-ud-din, who lives with his wife and four children on an agricultural estate belonging to a landowner near the town of Bahawalpur in southern Punjab. Meeting their food needs is a daily struggle. In their hut, the family shares three rotis for their evening meal, which they consume with a small

PICTURE CREDIT: EYEPRESS NEWS

SLOW PROGRESS Farm laborers transplant seedlings in a rice field in Guizhou province in the People’s Republic of China. “Rice yield growth is now slower than population growth,” says the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. After a record 40% increase in production in the past 50 years, technological progress in rice research seems to be slowing down.

helping of chili paste and lentils. “We almost never have enough to eat,” Hakeem told IRIN. “My children often cry because they’re hungry.”

Hakeem tills land on the estate, in exchange for which he collects a small wage and is given some produce, usually wheat flour.

SHORTSIGHTED VIEW

Despite countless stories like this and the threat of worsening hunger, many, indeed most, Asian governments have failed to develop coherent policies on food security.

Generally the components of domestic food programs are written under different chapters of national development plans. This allows various departments to go their separate ways with no coordination, according to Consumers International, a global end users’ organization. “Food policy is enormously complex and the lack of coordination among ministries responsible for food is a significant contribution to the problem,” it says.

Aggravating matters has been widespread inertia. Until 2008, Asian governments had become complacent about low food commodity prices, says Katsuji Matsunami, ADB’s practice leader and advisor on agriculture and food security.

“The long-term declining trend in agricultural investment, particularly in lending by development agencies and investments in agricultural research, clearly attests to this complacency,” says Matsunami.

PROTECTIONISM

The specter of protectionism among Asian governments as a response to staple food uncertainty is yet another concern. Evidence of a protectionist mindset is everywhere. In 2008, the Government of India temporarily banned the export of non-basmati rice to try and control soaring domestic food costs, while Bangladesh has continued a ban on rice exports for the same reason.

The problem is well understood by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which recently developed an Integrated Food Security plan supported by ADB. “There is obviously a need to invigorate rice trade as a secure vehicle for stabilizing food prices and ensuring access,” says ADB in a recent report.

The United Nations (UN) appears to agree. Protectionist policies are a prime cause of food insecurity as most countries in the region meet their national needs through imports, according to a study of the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. Importing countries use trade as a last resort, constraining the size of their respective import demands and, accordingly, the export performance of countries like Thailand and Viet Nam.

Being able to feed your own people is obviously a good thing. But the desire for self-sufficiency is often accompanied by a growing distrust of markets, and trade and grain importers no longer trust world markets to supply their needs, reports The Economist.

“Land grabbers are snapping up land abroad to use for food production,” it says. “Everywhere governments are more involved in farming through input subsidies. In these conditions self-sufficiency could easily sprout protective walls. That would be in nobody’s interest.”

DEGRADED LAND—ASIA’S BLIGHT

Land degradation adds to prospects of lower yields. Pressures on land, forest, water, and aquatic resources in Asia and the Pacific are more severe compared with other regions of the world, according to the FAO.

An estimated 850 million hectares, more than 28% of the region’s land, are affected by some form of degradation, it says. The quality and quantity of water resources are also under stress due to expanding demands for agricultural and industrial uses and urbanization.

PICTURE CREDIT: AFP

WINNING THE WAR AGAINST HUNGER “I strongly believe we can beat hunger, but we have to deploy not only all of the science and technology at our disposal, but also the political will to do so,” says Executive Director of the United Nations’ World Food Programme Josette Sheeran.

A recent study sponsored by three UN agencies (FAO, United Nations Development Programme, and United Nations Environment Programme) estimated the severity and costs of land degradation resulting in complete or partial loss of productive ability in South Asia. Its staggering conclusion is that Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Iran, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are losing at least $10 billion annually as a result. This is equivalent to 2% of the region’s gross domestic product, or 7% of the value of its agricultural output.

BIOFUELS–BLIGHT OR BLESSING?

In a remote part of India, the sun beats down on a series of stagnant lakes. The murky water is full of algae—tiny plants that grow in sunlight while devouring carbon dioxide.

Beside the ponds are a cluster of buildings and distillation units in which the algae are being processed. A fleet of trucks comes and goes to load the refined product, renewable petrol, for transporting to service stations.

It’s not science fiction. It’s already happening at research sites around the world. The California-based company Sapphire Energy, for example, is using sunlight, carbon dioxide, and non-potable water to test a new generation of biofuels based on algae. The fuel they’ll create is renewable, environment-friendly, and in every way compatible with the current gasoline economy, they say.

In Asia, biofuels including ethanol and biodiesel made from mainstream sources like grains and molasses are a relatively new component of the food supply conundrum. They were once heralded as an attractive, renewable alternative to fossil fuels, but now urban planners are less sure.

Problems with biofuels have become increasingly evident. Rising fuel prices coupled with legislative mandates and subsidies to increase production of biofuels in countries such as the United States and Australia have established a link between petroleum and the cost of food. Soaring world demand for grain has helped push up commodity prices and seen an increase in agricultural land allocated to biofuels production.

Therefore biofuels represent a paradox. They’re an opportunity for poor farmers but a challenge for the hungry be...