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Get 'em While They're Hot
Tony Zeiss
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Get 'em While They're Hot
Tony Zeiss
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About This Book
Is your workforce strong enough to keep your company afloat? As the average worker's skill levels decline, the labor supply is projected to decrease dramatically and exponentially--creating a skilled labor gap that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates will leave our economy in need of tens of millions more workers. In his beneficial manual for businesses, Dr. Tony Zeiss shows your organization how to compete--aggressively--for the rapidly dwindling resource of skilled workers. As an experienced and award-winning educator, Zeiss has unique insights into the techniques that are necessary to attract, develop, and retain skilled and productive people to both public and private organizations. In Get 'Em While They're Hot, you'll examine how the right people can keep your products and services fresh and competitive, how to train your current workforce in the latest industry trends, and how to leverage and respond to job market changes to position your company for future success. The labor shortage is more than a hot-button political topic. This essential manual will help your company adjust to the challenges ahead, and do what is within its power to not only survive, but thrive.
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Topic
Personal DevelopmentSubtopic
CareersChapter 1
KNOWLEDGE IS POWER
KNOWLEDGE IS POWER
āFailure to prepare is preparing to fail.ā
āauthor unknown
āauthor unknown
America is about to experience the greatest labor shortage in its history. At the same time, todayās skilled workersāalready too few in numberāare more independent and mobile than ever. Unless your organization prepares for this impending national crisis, it will cease to exist. If CEOs donāt give increased attention to the business of human resources, their plans will be useless. In turn, if HR personnel fail to understand their organizationās business strategy and fail to connect it to their hiring and workforce development plans, their efforts, too, will be counterproductive.
The survivors of the looming labor shortage will be those who strategically position themselves to meet their future human resource needs. This book is designed to help you prepare for and succeed in attracting, developing, and retaining peak performers throughout the forthcoming tight labor market.
THE BARE FACTS
Before we can strategize a response to this approaching labor-force threat, we must clearly understand what we are facing.
Demographic Realities
Even though unemployment in the United States is currently hovering around 6 percent, and 3.9 million jobs have been cut from 2001 to 2003, the consequences of a tight labor market will begin soon. Labor economist Tony Carnevale predicts that the supply of labor is about to fall very short of demand. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that, though total employment is expected to increase from 146 million jobs in 2000 to 168 million jobs in 2011, only 158 million workers will be available. 1
A serious lack of skilled workers will begin in 2005 and grow to 5.3 million by 2010 and to 14 million by 2015. If the need for unskilled workers is included, the shortage will be 7 million in 2010 and 21 million by 2020. Shortages will be most acute among managers, who are approaching retirement, and skilled workers in high-tech jobs.2
The pressure to find and keep skilled workers is already becoming serious and will get progressively worse. Baby boomers are retiring in record numbers, and there are not enough people in succeeding generations to fill the need. In fact, by 2010 some 30 million workers will be older than fifty-five, and organizations both public and private are facing the dual challenge of decreasing workers and declining worker skills.
Senator Tom Harken cited a recent Aspen Institute publication titled āGrow Faster Together or Grow Slowly Apart: How Will America Work in the 21st Century?ā and called the coming labor shortage a major ācrisis.ā āThis crisis arises from a worker gap, a skills gap, and a wage gap that, if not properly addressed, will threaten U.S. competitiveness and indeed our very way of life.ā 3As you can see, success will belong only to those who recognize the problem and position themselves to win in this new labor environment.
I was recently privileged to have a semiprivate meeting with President George Bush before he delivered a major workforce development address at the college where I serve. I was impressed by the presidentās response when I mentioned the coming labor shortage. He agreed that America had to gear up to provide more skilled workers and that the country was experiencing a major job transformation. His grasp of the imminent scarcity of workers and what it means to America was extraordinary. In his address he stated:
Weāre not training enough people to fill the jobs of the twenty-first century. There is a skills gap. And if we donāt adjust quickly and if we donāt do smart things with the taxpayersā money, if we donāt properly use our community colleges, weāre going to have a shortage of skilled workers in the decades to come. And if youāve got a shortage of skilled workers in the decades to come, guess whatās going to happen to Americaāweāre no longer going to be on the leading edge of change. Itās going to be hard for our children and grandchildren to find the kind of jobs that will be being generated in the worldās economy.
Even the president of our nation understands the dual threats of a decreasing workforce and the need for increased skills among workers, but most organizations have yet to prepare for these threats.
A National Association of Manufacturers publication reports that the manufacturing sector has lost more than 2 million jobs in the recent economic downturn, yet 80 percent of large and small manufacturers report a moderate to serious shortage of qualified applicants. 4 As an example, according to an Associated Press story on February 16, 2004, Siemens Diesel Systems Technology in Blythewood, South Carolina, recently experienced grave difficulty in finding skilled workers.
As mentioned in the Preface, Siemens received 1,000 applications for new manufacturing jobs. Of these applicants, the company put only 35 to work. What was the problem? The applicants were not skilled enough, especially in mathematics, to do the job. Siemens was forced to import workers from automotive states. Fortunately, they were able to attract skilled workers from other states. But with the coming worker shortage, this will no longer be a working option.
Job Trends
This country is in the middle of a major shift in its economic base. Our parents witnessed the transformation from an agrarian- based economy to an industry-based one. We have witnessed the transformation from an industry-based to an information-based economy. Today we are witnessing yet another transformation that capitalizes on the abundance of technology and information to enter a service-based economy.
Americaās jobs are changing, requiring higher skills and greater knowledge, and companies are attempting to remain competitive. We are experiencing the exportation of a huge number of both manufacturing and information technology jobs as other nationsā workers acquire the skills to do what our workers used to do. Furthermore, these foreign recruits can do the job for less pay than American workers.
QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS!
Various constituencies are raising many questions about job needs. The primary questions policy makers are pondering include: (1) How can we find jobs for the unskilled and unemployed? (2) How can we help the education system produce educated and skilled workers? (3) How can we stimulate innovative technologies and new job growth to replace jobs that have gone offshore?
CEOs are contemplating these questions: (1) What products and services should we produce to remain globally competitive? (2) How will we find and keep skilled workers?
Dislocated workers and those whose jobs are jeopardized are asking themselves: (1) Are my skills obsolete? (2) What else can I do? (3) How will I provide for my family and myself ? I submit that these are very similar to the questions asked by policy makers, CEOs, and dislocated workers during past economic transitions.
Those most acutely affected are always the dislocated workers. At the turn of the century, farmers wondered what would become of them and their children. In the fifties, factory workers wondered the same thing. Today, apparel workers, telemarketers, and IT personnel are nursing the same worries as their dislocated predecessors. And the answer today is the same as yesterday: emerging, existing, entrepreneurial, and transitional workers must increase their knowledge and skills to transition to new jobs.
What Goes? What Stays?
The U.S. Department of Labor tracks job trends and provides valuable insight regarding job growth and decline. Their research shows that the declining jobs are in low-skill manufacturing. Textile jobs are leaving this country faster than a speeding bullet. Assembly jobs are moving offshore at about the same rate. Information technology occupationsāwith the exception of network, systems, and software engineersāhave already moved to India. The furniture industry is shifting to China. Call center operations are disappearing rapidly, and the tobacco industry has been seriously scaled down.
The good news is that the great American free-enterprise machine is developing new jobs. New technological research and industrial innovations are fueling a rapid growth in high-tech and service-related jobs. Health-care occupations are growing because of an aging population of baby boomers who need more services, and small-business entrepreneurs are still creating new jobs every day. According to the Department of Labor, the twelve fastest-growing industries include:
ā¢ Automotive
ā¢ Biotechnology
ā¢ Construction
ā¢ Geospatial technology
ā¢ Health care
ā¢ Information technology
ā¢ High-tech manufacturing
ā¢ Retail
ā¢ Transportation
ā¢ Energy
ā¢ Financial services
ā¢ Hospitality
Of course, keep in mind that there might be another breakthrough in genetics or energy that propels another high-growth industry before the ink is dry on this book. America is blessed with an economic system that encourages innovation.
As of spring 2004, the Department of Labor showed that the fastest-growing jobs included:
ā¢ Medical assistants
ā¢ Network systems and data analysts
ā¢ Physician assistants
ā¢ Social and human service assistants
ā¢ Home health aides
ā¢ Medical records and health technicians
ā¢ Physical therapist aides, assistants
ā¢ Computer software engineers, applications
These occupations represent the largest growth through 2012. The technology and health fields will grow the most. It should be noted that 80 percent of these fastest-growing jobs require postāhigh school technical training. Five of these categories require at least a bachelorās degree. Two of the fastest-growing categories require two-year or associate degrees, and the remainder will require certification training beyond high school. (As an educator, I must add that teaching is another very high-growth area. Public schoolteachers and teacher assistants are and will remain in high demand.)
All of these job categories will grow by 50 percent, and some are projected to grow by 100 percent! That is good news for workers who are willing and able to gain the knowledge 7 and skills to capture these jobs, but bad news for employers who have to compete for these skilled workers.
Fortunately, higher education and skills training is easily accessible in todayās America. We have 1,200 community and technical colleges spread throughout the land whose primary purpose is to educate and train adults from all backgrounds in a great variety of programs and services. These economic engines are constantly responding to community, business, and student needs by providing low-cost, convenient job skills training. Financial aid is almost always available for dislocated workers and low-income individuals.
But what sort of training should displaced workers take today? Prudent folks will visit with a college counselor and determine where the jobs are in their community and select the training that best suits their interests and abilities. Astute individuals will enter a field of training that will lead to a lasting career.
OH, THE CHANGES!
A Changing Job Market
The U.S. Department of Laborās Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that we are continuing the shift from goods-producing to services-producing employment. The largest and fastest-growing sector of employment is in services. Business services, including data processors, health, and social services will produce 13.7 million jobs by 2010. Transportation, communications, and utilities will provide 1.3 million new jobs.
Another 1.7 million new openings are expected to emerge from the wholesale and retail trades. Fire, insurance, and real estate will contribute 687,000 new jobs, and the government will increase by 700,000 jobs over the same time period. Construction jobs will increase by 800,000, and agriculture, forestry, and fishing will increase by 400,000 jobs.
Mining will decrease by 55,000 jobs. Manufacturing, especially those jobs that produce durable goods, such as automobiles, will grow by 5.7 percent, but nondurable manufacturing, mostly in the apparel industry, will continue to decline.5
Shrewd business owners, CEOs, and managers will do well to understand where job growth will be occurring and where jobs will be decreasing as they strategically position their companies for future success.
A Changing Workforce
The ethnic and gender composition of the American labor force is changing rapidly. In addition to aging, our workforce is becoming increasingly diverse. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, white non-Hispanics will decrease from 73 percent of the population in 2000 to 69 percent in 2010. Hispanics will increase from 10.9 to 13.3 percent, Asians will increase from 4.7 to 6.1 percent, and African Americans will increase from 11.8 to 12.7 percent during the same time period. The female labor force will continue to grow faster than the male. 6 Women will continue to enter professions traditionally occupied by men, including top management and board positions. A recent Employment Policy Foundation news release predicted that āin the next 20 years, women and minority men will make up over two-thirds of the workforce.ā 7
These statistics are relevant to people who employ others in three significant respects. First, many of the new job seekers will be immigrants. They will require effective language skills training, and perceptive employers will provide intercultural and diversity training to their supervisors. Second, a strategic recruiting, development, and retention plan that targets this changing workforce must be developed and implemented. Finally, todayās employers will have to ensure that their supervisors are well versed in the values of their employees. Peopleās values often differ by age, gender, and cultural background.
Cliff Adelman, a top researcher for the U.S. Department of Education, encouraged me to point out th...