The last decade and a half has seen African economies register an increase of growth of about 5%—thanks to factors such as improved economic governance and macroeconomic management, increased internal consumption, and the rise in the demand and prices for a considerable number of commodities. The net gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to continue its upward trajectory, even though in the last few years, fragility in terms of growth has been observed when Africa moved south like many other parts of the world (AfDB et al. 2016). The worrying pattern is the tendency of the continent to grow rapidly yet transform slowly, making it vulnerable to headwinds! To sustain the positive socio-economic outcomes from the recent growth, African countries must revisit the current development models and reap benefits that may result from real structural transformation.
African leaders are committed to a forward-looking vision for 50 years, following the adoption of Agenda 2063 by the African Union (AU). This agenda was first sketched during the jubilee celebrations of the organisation in Addis Ababa in May 2013, and subsequently, it was adopted by a Heads of State Summit in January 2015, followed by the approval of its First Ten-Year Implementation Plan (FTYIP ) in June of the same year in a follow-up Summit in Sandton, South Africa. Africa, like the entire membership of the United Nations, is committed to the implementation of the so-called Sustainable Development Goals or Agenda 2030 —a blueprint devised to address the economic, social, and environmental challenges of our planet. These combined aspirations are quite ambitious. They comprise the political proclamations that must be followed while bringing about practical policy changes, which, in turn, point in the direction of structural transformation.
Economic growth, on its own, has been insufficient for transforming Africa. Despite its vast natural and human resources, poverty and inequality have continued to persist while prompting some commentators to ask whether this resource curse defines the continent (The Economist 2015). The externally driven commodity demand fails to generate economy-wide spill-over effects at the national and regional levels. The manufacturing industry still accounts for only a meagre share of the net GDP. The region—particularly the countries emerging out of conflict—must, therefore, prioritise social, economic, and political inclusion, as these are the pillars necessary for holding together a progressive, inclusive society. A sustained and inclusive economic growth is possible with the implementation of appropriate policies developed to create and distribute wealth as well as address inequalities at the continent level. However, such an agenda will be inadequate to catapult Africa into a more energised path if it remains in the realm of theory or is poorly executed. For that to happen, it is argued that there is a need to challenge the characteristics of the current development model.
To translate rapid economic growth into sustained and inclusive development, countries must be encouraged to put in place strategies that foster economic diversification, create jobs, reduce inequality, and boost access to basic services. Policies must also address spatial inequalities (differences between urban and rural areas and across regions) along with low intergenerational mobility in areas such as education, health, and employment that are plagued with inequality. However, eradicating poverty through hard and well-planned work requires the ability of people to sustain themselves through good jobs. Additionally, an enhancement of the capacity and productivity of low-skilled occupations (which, for Africa, typically belongs in the rural agricultural activities) is also required. International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that nearly US $10 trillion, in income transfers and associated social protection, is needed to eradicate extreme and moderate poverty by 2030—and, hence, the need for concerted efforts to radically change the approaches currently in vogue.
As a recap, Rick Rowden (2013) in an article for Foreign Policy that made the rounds rebukes Africans for tripping over themselves in their bursting eagerness to promote the ‘Africa rising’ narrative. He argues that the underpinning data and indicators forward a bleak picture. Africans typically look at high GDP growth rates, rising per capita incomes, and the explosive growth of smartphones or mobile banking as evidence that Africa is ‘developing’. He argues as follows:
Rowden is right to a point. It is true that, in general, African data is not the most reliable. However, in most cases, this is because outdated methodologies and samples are employed for data procurement, not to mention the absence of closest-to-real data points. The process is guided by under-estimations, rather than by the generalisability potential. This further validates the argument that what we are observing is not the kind of transformation Africa should aspire towards.these indicators only give a partial picture of how well development is going—at least as the term has been understood over the last few centuries. From late 15th century England, all the way up to the East Asian Tigers of recent renown, development has generally been taken as a synonym for ‘industrialization’. Rich countries figured out long ago, if economies are not moving out of dead-end activities that only provide diminishing returns over time (primary agriculture and extractive activities such as mining, logging, and fisheries), and into activities that provide increasing returns over time (manufacturing and services), then you can’t really say they are developing. (Rowden 2013)
Despite progress in human development indicators, such as universal access to primary education or drastic reductions in mother and child mortality, I am convinced that the current inability to address a number of transformational challenges is still trapping the continent into a state of low equilibrium, and, these self-same challenges are the focus of this book. It is critical to laboriously contextualise the key issues each time that may explain deceiving perceptions of pessimism and negativity. This book elects eight challenges that could contribute to a better reading of current transformation challenges.
The Map of This Book
Narratives about Africa tend to be deceiving due to poor data and evidence, historical negative perceptions, and simplistic and superficial views, often linked to lack of comparative studies with other regions of the world. It is as if Africa was an isolated entity geographically but also historically. This type of exceptionalism has been to the detriment of the continent’s image.
It is against this background that I have decided to present some of the challenges I consider the most prominent. It is a personal choice established around eight challenges—changing politics, respecting diversity, understanding policy space, structurally transforming through industrialisation, increasing agricultural productivity , revisiting the social contract, adjusting to climate change, and inserting agency in the relations with China—that this book seeks to delve into.
I review some of the pressing development challenges facing African countries while providing my contribution to optimum remedies to existing problems with suggestions on how to make the best of what is available. I also outline some of the conditions for a desperately needed space to adopt industrial policies beyond the happy narrative about ‘the rise of Africa’.
The choice of the challenges is, to some extent, arbitrary. Certainly, many important megatrends affecting Africa could have been the subject of specific additional chapters, such as the demographic changes and the related human mobility, the role of capacity for development, technology and innovation impacts, or implications resulting from accelerated urbanisation. I believe, nevertheless, that the intertwined nature of the challenges requires a choice, for the sake of clarity.
I consider that for change to happen, the continent must resolve political issues. This includes the most important political challenge in Africa, which is related to the respect for diversity. I have tried to diagnose in Chap. 2 current African political trends and squarely address the controversies surrounding the interpretations of democracy and the influence of external agents in the domestic developments in most countries. That is the starting point of my argument.
Most countries in Africa have limited capacities to undertake the wide range of measures required for a smooth transition from conflict to a path of peace, stability, and good governance—all of which are the chief ingredients of inclusive sustainable development. There seems to be a mythical dilemma revolving around which direction the continent should steer towards—constitutionalism, democracy, or development? Obviously, these three big ‘ticket’ items are not rivals, and they can, certainly, be achieved in complementarity to each other. However, there are some pertinent questions that need to be asked—such as, does holding regular election equate to democracy, or can a larger debate on the pitfalls of constitutional debates in Africa help address some of the difficult links between rhetoric and reality? I would like to agree with Daron Acemoglu and his colleague that development, constitutionalism, and democracy are self-reinforcing (see Acemoglu and Robinson 2012). Agreeing to such principles does not necessarily facilitate the task of interpreting the complexities associated with the path to build sustainable democratic societies.
The world is observing the limits of representational democracy and the faith in parties as the pillars of political competitive p...