1.1 Definitions of epidemic hazard
An epidemic (epidemic hazard) is defined in dictionaries as an outbreak of infections or contagion (incidence of infectious disease) on a given area at a much bigger scale than beforehand or the occurrence of infections or infectious disease unknown to date (Merriam-Webster, 2020; Oxford, 2020). In this respect, attention should be drawn to several issues that are also of importance from the viewpoint of civil protection.
First of all, an epidemic may affect communities that inhabit areas differing by size. Its consequences may comprise communes, counties, provinces or other territorial units, or even the entire territory of the country, a few countries, or the entire world. A particular role in the process of determination of the potential hazard range is played by relevant sanitary and epidemiological services, which as such should monitor the number of infected people in an ongoing way. In international security management, this role is played by the WHO, which is authorised to declare an epidemic a pandemic. This implies an epidemic with a worldwide incidence or impact, exceeding international borders, and tend to afflict large numbers of people (Last, 2001). Such a high number of people appear to be underestimated on purpose, because it is extremely difficult to provide tangible values applicable to all feasible situations.1 Moreover, a pandemic may be proven not only by the fact of incidence of infectious diseases in different countries. By definition, a pandemic may also apply to a situation in which an infectious disease impacts a population without pathogens exceeding international borders. As the nature of this impact had not been made more specific, numerous subject-related interpretations may be expected – ceasing of the transport of people and materials (by air, sea, or land), limiting the accessibility to goods (especially potable water, foodstuffs, medicines, and personal protection means), suspending humanitarian aid, a drastic decrease in the level of military security, loss of value of currencies, economic recession, etc. Therefore, the impact of an epidemic on people may be direct and/or indirect.
Secondly, the analysed hazard is strictly correlated with an infectious disease (cases of infectious diseases, contagions) or a factor that may cause it (infection by pathogens). It is impossible to determine all factors that could cause the incidence of an epidemic, because new epidemics are continuously being discovered, and the existent ones may evolve even further.
Thirdly, following epidemic hazard definitions given in dictionaries, circumstances of its occurrence should be considered. This pertains to two types of situations. As regards the first one, we may speak of an epidemic when infections or contagions afflict a clearly much larger population than it had happened in the past. It is not to provide precise figures concerning the number of people infected or sick. The exceeding of this value could be perceived as a premise, e.g. for the declaration of a state of epidemic hazard (legal situation adopted on a given area due to the risk of potential epidemic, oriented at preventing and combatting infections and infectious diseases in humans) or a state of epidemic (legal situation introduced on an analysed area in connection with an epidemic that has already broken out, with orientation at undertaking counter-epidemic and preventive measures to minimise the consequences of the hazard). From the practical viewpoint, it is difficult to determine the period of reference (month, six months, year, decade, etc.). In addition, results of analyses of the first of the two circumstances related to an outbreak of an epidemic shed more light on further interpretational ambiguity. What happens when a considerable number of infections and contagions is recorded in a period following an epidemic (e.g. 20,000 persons), even if it does not exceed the one from the preceding period (e.g. 20,500 people). This example points to a definition-related ambiguity, which may lead to diverging formal interpretations. The second group of circumstances is much more identifiable than the first one. This applies to situations when there are infections or infectious diseases occurring for the first time in a given area. Also, in this case, the range of the hazard or the reference number of exposed persons are not specified in more detail.
Definitions contained in sectoral documents provide further information concerning epidemic nature. The International Red Cross and Red Crescent Federation (IRCRCF) draws attention to the fact that the analysed hazard occurs when a lot of people from a given community become concurrently infected by the same pathogen. More infections are basically recorded than “normally” (without a more precise explanation of that word), which leads to exceeding the local community's capacity to cope with the given situation (Aloudat, 2008). This draws attention to a direct reference to a significant impairment in the state of health of a population, designated territorially by default. Furthermore, IRCRCF emphasises that the epidemic outbreak shows the lack of adequacy of the available potential (of the state, of the local community, of an institution, etc.) or limited possibilities for coping with the situation at hand. In other words, a social group, a community, or a society is unable to undertake the necessary measures and/or earmark appropriate resources on their own to reduce the risk. In such cases, frequently a need arises for the support of other security entities, both domestic (e.g. province authorities for the county authorities) and international ones (i.e. under humanitarian aid provided by the UN).
The agency operating at the UNHCR states that an epide...