Social Sciences
The Ageing Population
The ageing population refers to a demographic trend characterized by a growing proportion of elderly individuals within a society. This phenomenon is often attributed to declining birth rates and increased life expectancy. It has significant implications for healthcare, social welfare systems, labor markets, and family structures, leading to challenges and opportunities for policymakers and society as a whole.
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11 Key excerpts on "The Ageing Population"
As will be argued, there are in fact many different paths likely to be followed by ageing populations. These will reflect factors such as social and cultural variations across different societies, contrasting levels of resources within and between countries, differences in the speed of demographic change and contrasting attitudes towards older people and the idea of ageing. The purpose of this chapter is to review the key demographic drivers behind population ageing, setting these within the broader global context which forms the organizational framework for this book. The chapter first reviews the development of population ageing, defining in the process what is meant by the term ‘ageing societies’. It goes on to survey contrasts between different societies – both within high-income countries and in comparison with low-income countries of the global south. We will also consider gender and social class variations in life expectancy, and the rise of the very elderly population (including the increasing number of centenarians). The discussion then places population change within a sociological context, examining questions about the link between the development of ageing and individual beliefs and attitudes. Finally, the chapter considers a theme which will be returned to at various stages throughout the book: Why are ageing populations often presented as a ‘problem’? What is the historical context for this? What alternative arguments might be developed in response to such views?Population ageing in the twenty-first centuryThe ageing of populations was one of the most important developments of the twentieth century and will raise major challenges for life in the twenty-first. The proportion of the global population aged 65 and over in 1900 was 1 per cent (UK 5 per cent); in 2000 it was 7 per cent (UK 16 per cent) and by 2050 it is estimated that it will be 20 per cent, a figure that the UK is likely to reach in 2020. Population ageing refers to both the increase in the average (median) age of the population and the increase in the number and proportion of older people in the population. This change arises during the move from a demographic regime of high fertility and high mortality to one of low fertility and relatively low mortality. The former is associated with fast-growing young populations; the latter with more stable populations including a larger proportion of people in the older age groups. This process is described in the demographic transition model , derived from observations of the experiences of West European countries over the course of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Two clear phases are identified in this model. In the first, mortality rates decrease as a result of economic growth, improved material well-being and advances in public health. Fertility rates stay high, however, leading to a rapid increase in the size of the population, reinforced by higher survival rates through childhood and beyond. Moving into the twentieth century, a second phase unfolds, with a decrease in the number of babies being born and greater prominence and awareness of older age groups (reflected, for example, in concerns about the danger arising from ‘declining populations’ expressed in the 1930s and 1940s).1
eBook - PDFVital Signs
The Deadly Costs of Health Inequality
- Lee Humber(Author)
- 2019(Publication Date)
- Pluto Press(Publisher)
63 6 Ageing Populations? The concept of an ageing population, with its implicit reference to the idea that people are living longer, has particular relevance for a book on health and health inequality, since the average number of years that a person lives is one relatively crude measure of how healthy that population is. In a very real sense, it should be an occasion for cele-bration of a society’s success. However, ageing population concepts are not usually thought of in this positive light. Most often, in science and popular discourse, the phrase conjures up images of global economies being burdened with an ever-increasing number of older people, living longer than ever and using up increasingly scarce healthcare resources while draining tax revenues by drawing on national pension pots for longer. Ageing population arguments have been called the ‘voodoo demography’ by their critics, a term first coined in 2000 in response to the growing clamour around the social costs associated with rising life expectancies. 1 So, while it is the case that the average ages of populations globally have increased over the last 20 years, including recently for those in many LMICs, there is an ideological element to the concept that needs to be understood. This chapter seeks to do that, in the process explaining how these averages are calculated, exploring the broader social factors underpinning the rise and arguing that people living longer is far from being a social negative. Average life expectancies in the UK have increased consistently since the end of World War II. The number of people in their 70s in the UK increased from four million to five million between 1990 and 2016. Survival rates were far better for the post-World War II baby boom generation (born 1946 and onwards) than those born following the World War I baby boom (born 1920).
eBook - PDFEthnicity and Old Age
Expanding our Imagination
- Torres, Sandra(Authors)
- 2019(Publication Date)
- Policy Press(Publisher)
The demographic trend that is population ageing, and the discourse surrounding it, are in fact not as compatible as one might expect. It is because of the disjuncture between the two that we tend to regard the great achievement that population ageing actually is as a problem. This is why Katz (1992) has described the discourse on population ageing as ‘alarmist demography’. As a gerontologist who regards ageing as a natural part of the life course, and old age as a positive stage in our lives, he does not regard population ageing as a catastrophe but rather as an extension of the opportunities that the life course offers. Demographers, however, regard old age as a variable devoid of all of the personal and social experience that ageing actually entails. Thus, to demographers, old age is a number they use to differentiate one population segment from one another. Most gerontologists, on other hand, are assumed to regard age as a social construct and often deem chronological age to be less important than most non-gerontologists do. Thus, just like the globalisation of international migration is a transition which has caused migration scholars to question most of what they have taken for granted, population ageing is a transition that has meant the end of the world as demographers have known it. Vallin (2002) writes about the unprecedented changes that we are bound to face as life expectancy has risen by using adjectives such as ‘dramatic’. And to understand his choice of words, we must bear in mind that for most of human history, the average life expectancy was actually as low as 25 years of age. This probably comes as a shock to some but is an interesting take on why population ageing has received as much attention as it has. Thus, the fact that more and more people today are reaching old age and that this is the case worldwide is something exceptional, since living into old age was not something most people did some decades ago.
eBook - PDFPolicy Networks and Policy Change
Putting Policy Network Theory to the Test
- H. Compston(Author)
- 2009(Publication Date)
- Palgrave Macmillan(Publisher)
194 11 Population Ageing and the Expansion of Education 11.1 Introduction This final empirical chapter tests hypotheses based on the policy implications of two long-standing social trends: the ageing of populations and the expansion of education. 11.2 Population ageing Population ageing, in the sense of a steady increase in the median age of inhabitants, is one of the best known of all social trends. Over the past few decades life expectancy at birth has increased steadily in all 12 test countries with the partial exception of the Netherlands, where life expectancy for women has been broadly steady since 1980 (Eurostat, 2007c, p. 141). As a result the proportion of older people in the populations of the test countries has increased. More specifically, the number of inhabitants aged 65 and over as a percentage of the working population aged between 55 and 64 (the old age dependency ratio) increased between 1980 and 2004 in 7 of the 12 countries, while remaining broadly steady in four and decreasing only in Ireland (Eurostat, 2007c, p. 126). This trend is set to continue. Although demographic projections become more uncertain the further one goes into the future, they con- stitute reliable evidence for continuing population ageing over the next 20 years or so because they depend largely on past fertility rates and the age profile, both of which are known, plus the life expectancy of those currently alive, which only changes gradually. What these projections suggest is that between 2010 and 2035 the old-age dependency ratio will increase in all 12 test countries (EPC, 2001, p. 13; Eurostat, 2008g). Population Ageing and the Expansion of Education 195 One obvious implication of this is that age-related public spending on pensions, health care and old-age care services is likely to increase, other things being equal.
eBook - PDF- G. Giridhar, K. M. Sathyanarayana, Sanjay Kumar, K. S. James, Moneer Alam(Authors)
- 2014(Publication Date)
- Cambridge University Press(Publisher)
Demographics of Population Ageing in India Lekha Subaiya Dhananjay W. Bansod CHAPTER 1 Introduction A major emerging demographic issue of the twenty-first century is the ageing of populations as an inevitable consequence of the demographic transition experienced by most countries. Across the world, declining fertility and increased longevity have resulted in higher numbers and proportions of older persons 60 years and above. This trend is expected to continue as the estimated 737 million older persons in 2009 (United Nations, 2009) were projected to increase to 2 billion by 2050 at which time the proportion of the population age 60+ years will outnumber the proportion of the population who are children (of 0–14 years age). The oldest-old age segment (80 years and above) is the fastest growing segment and by 2050 about 20 per cent of older persons will be 80 years and above. The coming decades therefore will be characterized by the ageing of the aged. Of particular relevance is the fact that in 2009 two-thirds of the world’s older persons lived in developing countries (55 per cent in Asia alone), regions that are much less prepared to deal with this aspect of population dynamics compared to more developed countries. The ageing of populations has significant implications for older persons themselves, as well as the families and societies they live in. This recognition resulted in the World Assembly on Ageing being held in 2002 with 159 countries adopting the Madrid Plan of Action on Ageing (MPAA) which focuses on how the needs of older persons can be mainstreamed into development. 2 Lekha Subaiya For many years population ageing was considered to be a phenomenon of importance only to the more developed countries of Europe and North America and to Japan in Asia. At 21 per cent of the total population in 2009, the proportion of older persons 60 years and above is much higher in the more developed regions compared to the 8 per cent in the developing regions.
eBook - PDF- Yves Charbit(Author)
- 2022(Publication Date)
- Wiley-ISTE(Publisher)
Integrating population aging further into the reflection on development would therefore have proactive virtues, which would make this unprecedented demographic change not only a problem, but also an asset, or at least a lever. In the context of compression of morbidity, the evolution of intergenerational relationships and the opportunity to develop a new interior service-oriented labor market does not sound too unrealistic. 9.6. References Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P. (2017). Secular stagnation? The effect of aging on economic growth in the age of automation. American Economic Review, 107(5), 174–179. Agree, E. (2018). Demography of aging and the family. In Future Directions for the Demography of Aging, Hayward, M.D., Majmundar, M.K. (eds). The National Academy Press, Washington. Aging 229 Antoine, P. and Golaz, V. (2010). Vieillir au Sud : une grande variété de situations. Autre-part, 53, 3–16. Beard, J.R., Pot, A.M., Peeters, G. (2018). Implications of population ageing for societies and governments. In Oxford Textbook of Geriatrics Medicine, 3rd edition, Michel, J.-P., Beattie, B.L., Martin, F.C., Walston, J.D. (eds). Oxford University Press, Oxford. Bengtson, V.L. (2001). Beyond the nuclear family: The increasing importance of multi-generational bonds. Journal of Marriage and Family, 63, 1–16. Berr, C., Balard, F., Blain, H., Robine, J.-M. (2012). Vieillissement, l’émergence d’une nouvelle population, Médecine/Sciences, 28, 281–287. Blanchet, M. (2018). Gérontocroissance et territoires : quel potentiel pour la silver économie ? Population et Avenir, 739(4), 4–7. Bloom, D.E. (2019). The what, so what, and now what of population ageing. In Live Long and Prosper? The Economics of Ageing Populations, Bloom, D.E. (ed.). CEPR Press, London. Bloom, D.E., Mitgang, E., Osher, B. (2018). Demography of global ageing. In Oxford Textbook of Geriatrics Medicine, 3rd edition, Michel, J.-P., Beattie, B.L., Martin, F.C., Walston, J.D.
eBook - PDFManagement of Success
Singapore Revisited
- Terence Chong(Author)
- 2010(Publication Date)
- ISEAS Publishing(Publisher)
The relative share of the aged will, however, depend on future immigration and fertility trends. IMPLICATIONS The growing population of the old has various social, economic and political implications for any country, especially an urban, industrialized one such as Singapore. This is because old age is conventionally the life-cycle stage associated 186 Management of Success with retirement or withdrawal from the workforce. In Singapore, labour force participation rates for both sexes decline sharply from about the mid-fifties. Age for age, the labour force participation rate among older Singaporeans is lower than that for their Japanese and Korean counterparts (see Table 11.2). This in turn has important implications for their financial well-being, especially in view of the lengthening post-retirement years. Only 63 per cent of Singapore residents aged 55 and older studied in 2005 had their own income (although this is an increase compared with the situation in 1995), with men more likely than women to have their own income. 13 Old age is also associated with greater health and social care needs. A study by the Ministry of Health shows that while life expectancy has risen, Singaporean men and women spend eight years in poor health owing to heart diseases, stroke, cancer, diabetes and mental illness. 14 The proportions that require assistance in their activities of daily living (such as self-feeding, dressing, grooming and going to the toilet) increase with age, as do the proportions that are bedridden or require assistance to move about. 15 Hospital utilization is also higher among the elderly compared with the general population. 16 Both on account of their declining health status and their economically inactive status, the elderly are more vulnerable and likely to require assistance unless personal and institutional measures are put in place to ensure their independence.
eBook - PDFA Violent World
Modern Threats to Economic Stability
- Jean-Hervé Lorenzi, Mickaël Berrebi(Authors)
- 2016(Publication Date)
- Palgrave Macmillan(Publisher)
By 2050, 22% of the world population will be aged over 60. It is nevertheless difficult to predict accurately the future state of demographics. In fact, behind the ageing of the population lie two uncertainties, one concerning the extension of life span and the other the development in fertility rates. Ageing can accelerate while the fertility rate continues to decline. Life expectancy can also increase solely thanks to the progressive extension of the life span in the most elderly. The age pyramid will retain the same base but will grow higher. Not every country will experience the same type of ageing, even if it seems to be difficult to predict the pattern that will be typical of each of them in the coming decades. That is because the asynchronous nature of the development in each country is evident. 6 According to the United Nations, 7 the over- sixties will represent about 30% of the population of the developed regions in 2050, as against a current 20% of the population, but it will be only 20% in the developing parts of the world. These areas will thus attain the current level of ageing in the developed regions 40 years later. The reality of the world will thus change, for better or worse, and will be determined by four characteristics. To return to the official sources, the ageing of the population will occur in almost every country in the world. ‘The global proportion of people aged 60 or over increased by 9.2% in 1990 to 11.7% in 2013, and will continue to grow in proportion to the world population, reaching 21.1% in 2050’. 8 The intergenerational 36 A Violent World relationship will be crucial. ‘Overall, the number of people aged 60 or over ought to more than double, from 841 million people in 2013 to more than two billion in 2050. The number of the elderly should exceed the number of children for the first time in 2047’. 9 Work will become a heavy constraint. ‘Many elderly people still need to work, especially in the devel- oping countries.
eBook - PDF- Edward Rosset(Author)
- 2017(Publication Date)
- Pergamon(Publisher)
It is interesting to examine the expected changes in the age structure of the population against the background of retrospective figures. PAST A N D FUTURE E V O L U T I O N IN THE AGE STRUCTURE OF THE SPANISH P O P U L A T I O N (1900. 1950. A N D 1980) Year Total Age groups Year Total 0-14 15-64 6 5 + 1900 100-0 33-5 61-3 5-2 1950 100-0 26-2 66-6 7-2 1980 100-0 21-1 69-6 9-3 Source: JEAN DARIC, Evolution demographique en Espagne, Population, Paris, 1956, No. 1, pp. 89 and 100. The table indicates that the past trends in the age structure of the Spanish population will continue to prevail in the future. Thus: 1. the proportion of children (0-14) will further decrease, 2. the proportion of active population (15-64) will continue to increase, and 3. so will the proportion of aged persons (65+). The three tendencies are typical of progressive aging of the popu-lation. In particular, the increase in the proportion of active population (15-64) is typical for the early phase of aging (comme il arrive au debut du vieillissement, to quote Daric). 268 A G I N G PROCESS OF P O P U L A T I O N The last column in the table shows that, by 1980, Spain will reach the phase of aging attained around 1950 in Denmark, the Federal German Republic and Switzerland—all of them nations where the aging of populations is relatively far advanced. In 1953, the Organization for European Economic Cooperation (O.E.E.C.) requested its members to prepare demographic forecasts for the years 1961 and 1971 on the basis of the 1951 figures. 18 For the purpose of these forecasts, populations were divided into three age groups: 1. children (0-14), 2. working age (men: 15-64; women: 15-59), 3. pensionable age (men: 6 5 + , women: 6 0 + ) . The same age classification was used in the British estimates quoted earlier in this chapter. The member nations of the O.E.E.C. prepared future estimates for their populations in three versions—optimistic, pessimistic, and me-dium.
eBook - PDFThe Life Course
A Sociological Introduction
- Stephen J. Hunt(Author)
- 2017(Publication Date)
- Red Globe Press(Publisher)
The UK Family Policy Studies Centre ( 2009 ) has predicted that older people are increasingly isolated and lonely due to the rise in divorce. According to Social Trends ( 2002 ) , the number of divorced people living on their own expected in 2025 will be 20 per cent, six times that of 1990. THE PERSEVERANCE OF INEQUALITIES IN OLD AGE It is evident from the discussion above that progressing into later life consti-tutes a form of social inequality based on the process of ageing itself. Thus Phillipson ( 1998 ) insists that, despite a recognition of new life styles and consumerism, in globalised late-modern societies it remains vital to retain 272 THE LIFE COURSE a strong focus on the ‘traditional’ concerns of social exclusion and social inequality that may be observed in later life. Despite the apparent improve-ment of the economic position of contingents of older people, one enhanced by opportunities to partake of the consumer society, a high level of discrim-ination or ageism would still seem to be evident in Western societies despite age discrimination being taken seriously by governments. Ageism may be evident in the subtle form of infantilisation (as when people speak to the elderly with a condescending tone, as if they were children) (Kalish 1979 ). Terms such as ‘the elderly’, ‘the old’ or ‘OAPs’ (old age pensioners) both depersonalise and stigmatise the people to whom they refer. Gerontologists increasingly use a life course perspective to understand how old age is shaped by events experienced earlier in life (Brown et al. 2005 ; Ferraro and Shippee 2009 ). This includes how economic disadvan-tages which have impacted throughout life are translated into negative consequences in later life.
eBook - PDF- David Evered, Julie Whelan, David Evered, Julie Whelan(Authors)
- 2008(Publication Date)
- Wiley(Publisher)
Following the attainment of sexual maturity and a peak of vitality which occurs early in adulthood, a long period of progressive de- terioration takes place during which individuals become increasingly likely to die. Eventually, the age-specific mortality rate becomes so great that an effective upper limit is imposed on the duration of an individual lifespan. This definition of ageing in terms of a mortality pattern showing progres- sive increase in age-specific mortality allows comparisons to be made even among species where the detailed features of senescence may differ mark- edly, There are however some qualifications which must be noted. First, it is not necessarily the case that all age-related changes are deleterious in terms of survival (see Medawar 1955, Lamb 1977). Second, the survival curve is highly susceptible to modification by extrinsic factors, so that many populations in the wild may show little or no sign of any intrinsic process of senescence (Lack 1954, Kirkwood 1985). Third, species to which the definition is applied both should have a clear distinction within individual organisms between germ line and somatic tissue, and should also be capable of repeated reproduction Nature and causes of ageing 195 Age (years) FIG. 1. Age-specific patterns of survival (continuous curve) and mortality (broken curve) which typify a population in which ageing occurs. The example is of a human population with well-developed social and medical care (from Kirkwood & Holliday 1986 by permission of Cambridge University Press). A high level of mortality due to environmental causes unrelated to age will tend to mask these patterns, which may then become apparent only when the population is transferred to a protected environment. during the adult lifespan. Where there is no clear distinction between germ line and somatic tissue, it is usually possible to generate one individual from another by vegetative growth.
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