Leading and Managing Change in the Age of Disruption and Artificial Intelligence

Mathew Donald

• Editore: Emerald Publishing Limited
• Anno: 2019
• ISBN:
  9781787563698
• Argomento: Business
• Categoria: Organisational Development

In a global age of disruption, future organisational change is not avoidable. Organisational effects will be immediate and transformational across companies, and due consideration and preparation ahead of these changes may be paramount for the survival of organisations and their leaders of tomorrow.
Leading and Managing Change in the Age of Disruption and Artificial Intelligence modernises the topics of management, leadership, and organisational change to inform those leading and managing organisations into the future. The book covers modern disruptions ranging from Trump and other geo-political changes, to Brexit, new currencies, trade wars, and even knowledge mobility. It also considers the broad scope of potential impacts posed by artificial intelligence.
With insights and strategies that the modern manager of the future can implement in their daily work, this book provides critical thinking that will future proof organisations with practical models. It will interest and inform managers and leaders across small and large organisations and will also prove useful and thought-provoking to those studying in business related disciplines such as management, leadership, and organisational change.

Chapter 1

Introduction

Organisational change: the future must be performed differently to the past.

—Mathew Donald

This book is specifically written for those that seek modern information and knowledge regarding leadership and management in a modern organisational context, be they a student or an experienced manager. The speed, size and volatility of organisational change are increasing (Burnes, 2009; Burnes & Jackson, 2011), where increased scope, variety and speed of change have occurred with world events (Taylor & Cooper, 1988a). It is possible that the speed of organisational change is now so fast that people may not be able to cope (Bruckman, 2008; Toffler, 1970), where the interconnectedness of organisations may result in a change being impossible to avoid (Shah, 2010).

The new age of disruption and artificial intelligence (AI) will see a change emerging differently and faster than ever before; thus, this book is relevant to a wide variety of reader, be they involved in profit, non-profit or government sectors. The new age will cause organisations to reconsider organisational structures, processes, market analysis and decision making. This first chapter clarifies the new age scope, key definitions and why it is important, irrespective of the market or organisational type.

Disruption, in the context of this book, is broader than those normally presented in a learning text for management and leadership topics. Disruption dimensions are not unique (Golightly & Dadashi, 2017) being included here not as fortune telling, but more as examples and possibilities. Technology change is not merely disruption in the context of this book, where the topic may include geopolitical changes, financial markets and other global events. Globalisation has influenced corporations around the world (Choo, Halim, & Keng-Howe, 2010) by increasing the interconnectivity and interdependence of trade. A single organisation, even if dominant or global and irrespective of size or market, may not have sufficient direct influence or power to prevent change in the new age.

AI is already emerging, where its influence may also be unavoidable and it will likely have more effects than merely the replacing of humans with machines. The nature of AI is likely to be so significant that it may lead to adjustments in organisational structures, processes and staff relations will be amongst many. The emergent AI will require special attention in order for organisations to survive, where both management and leadership roles of the future may require additional skills in order to optimise any emerging organisational risks and opportunities.

The terms of management and leadership are often defined colloquially as interchangeable. This book recognises that the functions of leadership and management are distinctly separate, despite any overlapping elements. Recent research has indicated that organisational change may be linked to leadership and management (Donald, 2016, 2017). It is quite possible for organisational managers to be a poor leader, or for a leader to be a poor manager; yet, those implementing organisational change may be required to hold both skills.

Apart from the management and leadership practices, the new age will likely require alternate organisational systems and structures. In Chapter 6, the changing nature of the organisation is explored, rather than prescribed. Finally, Chapter 7 explores recent research on organisational change, potential solutions and change factor interactions, where these may have implications for organisational governance and responsibilities of the future to improve chances for success and avoid failure.

Critical thinking is encouraged in association with themes and solutions discussed in this book, as critical thinking may be essential skill for any future decision makers. Sound decision-making skills have been linked to critical thinking skills (Heisler, 2014). The new age of disruption and AI is one where the exact future cannot be predicted with any level of certainty. Whilst management skills may be prescribed and developed (Law, 2016), higher levels of skill may be required for those managing in this new age. The author encourages readers to consider, discuss and even critique ideas presented in this book. The very nature of disruption and AI may mean that topics in this book may evolve over time, where the deeper value of this book may lie in the thought provocation and critical thinking, rather than any specific predictions.

Managers may already hold skills of value creation, problem solving and option evaluation, yet these may be insufficient for this new age. Organisational change has been linked to employee engagement (Donald, 2017), thus management styles that are autocratic or lack inclusion may fail to change. It may be tempting for some to utilise past experience, industry norms or historical data in decision making, where the lack of critical thinking and thought may increase risk. Critical thinking skills will likely encourage fact verification, logic, collaboration, data analysis and scenario development.

The remainder of Chapter 1 explores and defined the terms of disruption and AI as there is little point in using the terms without appreciation of their meaning and scope. The reader is encouraged to critique the definitions by considering the what, how and why questions in an effort to understand the topics. Early exploration of the terms may later assist critical thinking, where alternatives and evaluation will be required. Finally, this Chapter 1 will discuss the importance of disruption and AI as key influencers of organisational behaviour in the future.

What is Disruption?

This section of Chapter 1 explores the term disruption, thus articulating why organisational governance, leaders and managers should formally consider disruption as a key topic of the new age. Organisational change is not a new phenomenon as change is already increasing in speed, size and volatility (Burnes, 2009; Burnes & Jackson, 2011). The change is not isolated or limited to a specific organisation, where major world events have resulted in increased scope, variety and speed of change (Taylor & Cooper, 1988b). It may even be that the pace of change may have increased to a speed where people may not be able to cope (Bruckman, 2008; Toffler, 1970), or that all business is so inextricably linked and involved in change that it may be unavoidable (Shah, 2010).

Organisations emerged from the twentieth century after great upheaval and societal change that included two World Wars, the Great Depression and a Cold War. The first half of the twentieth century included the emergence of significant new technology for the masses, including electricity generation, automation, motor vehicles, aeroplanes and refrigeration, amongst others. These new items changed organisational interactions, structures and work practices. The second half of the twentieth century delivered space travel, satellites, television, mobile phones and computers that consequentially led to changes in communications, travel, trade and even globalisation. By the year 2000, organisations were no longer structured, processed or traded in the same way as those in the year 1900, where the resulting globalisation emerged as an environment that was international and tempestuous (Scott, 2000).

Despite industrialisation and invention associated with the Industrial Revolution of the nineteenth century, a great amount of work was manual and time consuming at the beginning of the twentieth century, especially in the home. In the year 1900, household tasks were still very manual, such as hand washing clothes, travel by horse and no electric refrigeration. Organisations were relatively simple and smaller than of today being associated with strong or autocratic styles that is but one of the five potential structures (Henry Mintzberg, 1980). These early organisations were thought to be the part of systems, where equilibrium and optimisation were possible (Lewin, 1945). In the early part of the twentieth century, there change was evolving into unions, worker’s rights, communism and fascism, women’s rights and voting, and rapid and turbulent political changes, where significant changes in inequality emerged (Goldin & Katz, 2018). Organisations adapted to the twentieth century changes that assisted the acceleration of aviation, automotive and other new industries.

A key driver of change after World War II was that of consumerism, where these consumerist values may further change in the twenty-first century in the pursuit of contentment (Brown & Vergragt, 2016). Change has been described as being essential for organisations and the future of humankind (Benn, Dunphy, & Grffiths, 2014;Burnes, 2011; Kanter, 2008; Sackmann, Eggenhofer-Rehart, & Friesl, 2009), where the pace has accelerated in the past 20 years. Organisational survival may even be dependent upon change (Burnes & Jackson, 2011; Company, 2008), where competitive advantage may be lost if the organisation does not change (Kotter, 1996). Organisational change sources are varied, derived from market forces as well as corporate rationalisation, operational efficiency or deregulation (Bennett & Durkin, 2000).

Disruption has emerged as a new type and pace of organisational change, where some have perceived it as merely a type of pure technology and three measures (Rosenstand, Gertsen, & Vesti, 2018). In recent times, the term ‘disruption’ has broadened beyond mere technology, where it is now associated with economic variation (Krug & Reinmoeller, 2003), supply randomness (Fahimnia, Jabbarzadeh, & Sabouhi, 2017), product innovation (Teece, 2017), as well as politics and distrust (Kallianos, 2018). There is great potential for disruption to evolve further in this world of globalisation (Bordo, 2017), where it will be aided by high interconnectivity.

The term disruption is now commonly used in media and has emerged into the research literature in the last few years, often linked exclusively to technology change. Disruption, when related to occupations, does not appear to have a fixed definition, appearing to relate generically to change more broadly (Nizzero, Cote, & Cramm, 2017). The disruption innovation term is defined more specifically as being a complete change that has potential to change the competition fundamentally (Lourdes, Victor, & Jesus, 2017). Disruption has also been linked to divergent globalisation experiences, with a potential to form anti-globalisation movements (Gustafsson & Skohg, 2017). Whilst globalisation has produced benefits across many countries, it may have reduced the identity of borders, thus altering risk and security (Wright, 2017).

Disruption may be totally unpredictable with little or no planning, or one that is predictable, where some level of mitigation planning is possible (Zhao & Tang, 2010). When disruption is in the unpredictable form, it will not be possible to predict the change in terms of its nature, time or place, thus creating issues for the governance boards, leaders and managers. The nature of the unpredictable disruption could be one of war, earthquake, flood, government policy, political instability or unforeseen product emergence or technology. This book adopts the wider definition of disruption, where it can be either predictable or unpredictable, where the Leader and Manager of the future will need to include disruption as an additional factor to include in their roles.

Organisations will likely already have plans around some of the more likely disruption factors. Predictable disruption factors may already be planned for, including those of safety, environmental, product quality and media incidents. Organisations of the new age will need to prepare beyond the most likely events, as the more remote disruptive events will circulate faster and be more transformational than previous types. For instance, historically a coffee shop may have prepared for unusual events like the coffee machine breaking down or an alternate supply, if their cakes are not supplied. The coffee shop of the future need to broaden their disruption preparations, including actions required should rapid and large-scale changes emerge. Organisations in a state of disruption maturity may even create calculation models to assess the robustness of plans in light of the potential risk ranges (Lusby, Larsen, & Bull, 2018).

Disruption was originally defined as being simply a technology change (Christensen & Bower, 1996), where, more recently, it has been defined with two dimensions that are distinguished by a differing scale and effect (Schuelke-Leech, 2017). The first of the two disruptive dimensions is limited to having organisation or market effects, whereas the second dimension is one characterised by its broader effects with impacts to the broader society, industries or government policy (Schuelke-Leech, 2017). In the first disruptive dimension, it may be possible for organisations to identify scenarios and build advanced reactive strategies with detailed mitigation actions. The unknown nature of the second disruptive dimension that has significantly more impact on society and industry; yet, this dimension will be significantly harder to predict and harder to develop advanced mitigation strategies. Organisations are likely to develop mitigation strategies, rather than avoidance or elimination, as no single organisation is likely to control disruption in the new age.

This new change of the twenty-first century is already variable, fast and less predictable combined with great shifts in politics and world power occurring. Those seeking to lead and manage organisations of the future will need to be cognisant of the past change as there may still be relevant comparisons and learnings from study of the Industrial Revolution or other changes in the twentieth century. As has been the case in the past, there will be winners and losers during this change ahead, where organisational success may depend on abilities to understand change, set strategy and implement. Organisations that move too slowly or choose the wrong direction may fail or lose value more quickly than in the past.

In the last 20 years, change has been swift, where even just the simple introduction of electronic email as a communication source has resulted in the loss of many thousands of secretarial positions worldwide. Job losses from the introduction of email came about as managers and employees adopted typing as a skill that once was for typing pools and secretaries. Postal services have recently become loss makers in many countries due to physical mail being replaced by electronic mail. Email was widely adopted once it was perceived as being a faster tool, involving self-editing being simpler than dictating or drafting memos, faster than facsimile. Despite secretarial positions holding faster typing speeds and faster dictation speeds, managers and staff embraced typing emails themselves. The change towards emails was far reaching, as it also resulted in reduction in tradespeople that once repaired facsimiles and typewriters and the elimination of typing supplies and ribbons. In just the last 20 or so years, millions of typewriters have been made redundant, sent to the scrap recyclers and waste stations. Opportunity presented itself as typing changed to email, where the Internet fostered new accessories, including routers, computers, printers and faster communication lines.

Each form of new technology can result in a far-reaching flow on effects, be that through an organisation, an industry, or a country and across the world. When the Internet emerged, it was not clear that it would later be a platform for social media, payments systems, currency, information or even movies. The Internet has transformed lives around the world, where even the previously profitable print and television media industry was transformed with thousands of jobs lost in a few years. It is the hidden effects of technology that should be considered by those leading and managing organisations in the future, as each change in technology may have the potential to transform work places or eliminate organisations and whole industries.

Less than 15 years ago, investment in a video store may have yielded good profits as it invaded the movie theatre industry. Yet, the video shop industry has almost been eliminated in the last few years as movies moved onto the Internet, where the past video shop may now be close to worthless. In similar changes that have occurred with relative speed diskette and the compact disk (CD) manufacturers have been eliminated upon the introduction of the universal serial bus (USB). Today, most new computers and laptops do not even include ports for diskettes or CD. Of course, each of the changes in technology involved secondary effect reductions for those involved in related service, repairs and supply and transport industries. The emergence of modern rapid changes should be concerning to many, including employees, business owners, leaders and managers as rapid job losses and organisational redundancy may be characteristic extended unemployment and social dislocation. Politicians and economists may promote global trade and benefits; yet, there is high potential for social upheaval and dislocation that may result from increased unemployment in regions adversely affected by the changes.

Organisational change can be internally generated or from external forces (Williams, McWilliams, & Lawrence, 2016), where it may occur in a controlled or reactive way. Leaders and managers design and implement organisational change, where the change may be for market reasons, risks or opportunities or innovation or many other reasons. The external forces that may influence organisational change include those of the market, government changes, globalisation and even changes in world power. There will be a great diversity in the way organisations change, some preferring to use change managers, others may hire new staff or use consultants. Those designing and implementing change need to be conscious that most organisational change fails, where the failure rate may be as high as 70% (Burnes & Jackson, 2011; Senturia, Flees, & Maceda, 2008).

The dilemma of all Leaders and Managers is to choose the most appropriate options for business success, where some risk is likely associated with all options. In the new age of disruption and AI, changes may occur faster with less predictability than in the past, thus introducing more r...