European Climate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation

A Spatial Planning Perspective

Philipp Schmidt-Thome, Stefan Greiving

• Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell
• Year: 2013
• Print ISBN: 9780470977415
• eBook ISBN: 9781118474815
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Ciencias biológicas
• Subtopic: Calentamiento global y cambio climático

European Climate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation: A Spatial Planning Perspective analyses the impacts climate change might have on regions and their local economies. Regions clearly differ in view of the complex patterns of climate change impact, but also regarding the given vulnerability and coping capacity.

Impacts of climate change can have a marked effect on the functioning of regions and sectors of the society, if not properly addressed. Readiness to adapt to the impacts and lasting changes counts towards vulnerability of the regions.

The book builds upon the findings of a project conducted under the European observation network for territorial development and cohesion (ESPON), The ESPON Climate project. Following the stipulations of the ESPON programme and the tender for this project the territorial focus is the raison d'être and methodological core of the project as a whole and its various research actions: The outcomes of each action will be focused on what impacts global climate change will have for the different European regions and how the regions can cope with the projected impacts in order to become less vulnerable to climate change.

This book:

• Provides a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on 29 European regions and their local economies
• Takes an interdisciplinary approach dealing with the physical, social, economic, environmental, cultural and institutional aspects of climate change vulnerability and the consequences for spatial planning
• Builds on the findings of the ESPON Climate project with a policy focused approach
• Is in full colour throughout with a broad range of case studies

Chapter 1

Introducing the pan-European approach to integration on climate change impacts and vulnerabilities into regional development perspectives

Philipp Schmidt-Thomé¹ and Stefan Greiving²

¹Geological Survey of Finland (GTK), P.O. Box 96, 02151, Espoo, Finland

²TU Dortmund University, Institute of Spatial Planning (IRPUD), August-Schmidt-Strasse 10, 44227, Dortmund, Germany

Abstract

There is a political demand towards a territorial response to climate change. Since the development of territorially differentiated adaptation strategies calls for an evidence basis, a cohesive approach to developing an integrated vulnerability assessment is introduced. Although the European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion (ESPON) Climate project was the first attempt at a pan-European and cross-sectorial climate change vulnerability assessment, the further research that is needed in just about every aspect of climate change that the project touched upon is discussed. The three parts of the book are then outlined.

1.1 Introduction

Territorial development is generally considered to be very important when dealing with climate change. For example, it is regarded as being responsible for and capable of reducing regional vulnerabilities to climate change as well as developing climate mitigation and adaptation capacities against the impacts of climate change (Stern, 2007; IPCC, 2007). The World Bank Report ‘The Global Monitoring Report 2008’, which deals with climate change and the Millennium Development Goals, concludes that the advancement of adaptive urban development strategies is a fundamental field of action for dealing with the challenges of climate change (World Bank, 2008). The European Union (EU) White Paper ‘Adapting to Climate Change: Towards a European Framework for Action’, explicitly relates to spatial planning and territorial development, respectively, stating that ‘a more strategic and long-term approach to spatial planning will be necessary, both on land and on marine areas, including in transport, regional development, industry, tourism and energy policies’ (Commission of the European Communities, 2009, p. 4). In the EU Territorial Agenda it is stipulated under Priority 5 that ‘… joint trans-regional and integrated approaches and strategies should be further developed in order to face natural hazards, reduce and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. Further work is required to develop and intensify territorial cohesion policy, particularly with respect to the consequences of territorially differentiated adaptation strategies’ (BMVBS (Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development), 2010, p. 7).

The above-mentioned quotes show that there is a political demand towards a territorial response to climate change. Since the development of territorially differentiated adaptation strategies calls for an evidence basis, this book presents a cohesive approach to developing an integrated vulnerability assessment. The methodology was developed under the European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion (ESPON) ‘Climate’ project. The ESPON Climate project was given the task of developing a pan-European vulnerability assessment as a basis of identifying regional typologies of climate change exposure, sensitivity, impact and vulnerability. On this basis, tailor-made adaptation options were derived to cope with regionally specific patterns of climate change. In the ESPON Climate project, this regional specificity was addressed by several case studies from the trans-national to the very local level.

This book summarises the results achieved by the ESPON Climate project. It is structured into several chapters that display the development of the methodology, the selection, evaluation and assessment of data sets, towards the production of indicators and maps. Following the European overview, there are applications of the approach for local case studies to test and approve the methodology.

The territorial perspective and dimension on climate change vulnerabilities displayed in this book are somehow unique, because so far most of the existing vulnerability studies have a clear sectorial focus, that is, addressing very specific impacts of climate change on single elements of a particular sector. To date, such a comprehensive methodological approach, especially one covering almost an entire continent, has not available. Specialised research is sensible and necessary, but the findings of such focused studies are not easily transferable between sectors or between regions. Research results are often not comparable due to methodological differences. This is particularly troublesome in an international policy context such as the European Union, when it needs to be determined what the consequences of climate change are on the competiveness of Europe as a whole, or on the territorial cohesion of European regions. This book therefore shows the development of a new comprehensive vulnerability assessment methodology, applying it to all regions belonging to ‘ESPON space’. The methodology may be applied to develop a response to climate change from the perspective of a European territorial development policy.

Any climate change vulnerability assessment will definitely be confronted with uncertainties, which are based on the uncertainties of the underlying models and emissions scenarios. The vulnerability assessment methodology presented in this book used the COSMO model in Climate Mode (CCLM) as a regional climate model that covers almost the entire ESPON space. The forcing scenario used was the SRES A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It is important to underline that the methodology is not tied to any specific models, emissions scenarios or indicator data sets. Therefore, the results displayed here may be improved at some point in the future if better input data becomes available, both at this scale and in a comparable format. The developed methodology is scientifically acknowledged, and may thus be used for other similar assessments on entire continents or specific regions.

This book thus displays one possible vulnerability scenario that shows what Europe's future in the wake of climate change might look like. The results are not a forecast, but they give some evidence-based hints as to what European adaptation should address in view of the identified regional typologies of climate change, from a regional development perspective. For example, the book shows that key patterns of regional climate change vulnerability run counter to a major pillar of European policy: territorial cohesion. Several regions in the South and East of the continent are highly vulnerable to climate change. Simultaneously, the current economic performance of those vulnerable regions is weak, as compared with other European regions. This underlines the need for a tailor-made adaptation policy at the European level.

1.2 Further research

The ESPON Climate project was the first attempt at a pan-European and cross-sectorial climate change vulnerability assessment. The project succeeded in developing and implementing a comprehensive methodology that integrates data and interrelations across a vast range of relevant fields. For each indicator a detailed methodology was developed, building on existing research findings, establishing causal relations to other indicators and utilising most appropriate and up-to-date data. Through this course, the project developed several advanced methods for assessing climate change impacts for the pan-European study on a very fine-grained scale. For example, the assessment of many indicators was performed on a 100 × 100 meter grid cell basis, for example to identify exactly those parts of a region's population that are sensitive to river flooding inundation or which live in urban heat islands and are especially sensitive to heat waves.

Further research is needed in just about every aspect of climate change that the project touched upon. This includes research on second-order and indirect effects of climatic changes. For example, the project estimated the potential effects of a changing climate on the tourism sector of each NUTS 3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistic) region. Through backward and forward linkages, these direct effects have multiplier effects on other (sub-) sectors. Such further analysis is certainly possible and would allow a more complete assessment of the economic impacts of climate change. Relevant economic linkages are likely to, for example; also reach into adjoining regions, thus adding an additional layer of complexity. This would require more economic modelling, which was clearly beyond the scope of this project.

Besides a deeper understanding of detailed mechanisms of climate change, what are needed are pan-European methodologies and comparative research. There are many studies that have been conducted at a national or a regional level, which should be scaled up to a European level. An expert-based, multi-criteria classification of all 231 habitat types of the NATURA 2000 directive in regard to their climate change sensitivity is one example, as so far only about 80 of the central European habitat types have been classified accordingly.

Besides expanding, up-scaling and integrating existing research approaches, this book identifies a great need to make qualitative and institutional aspects of climate change, as well as adaptation and mitigation, compatible with the quantitative assessments conducted. The Alpine space study charted a way forward in this regard, but systematic, pan-European methodologies, including reviews and classifications are needed to integrate institutional aspects into pan-European studies.

Current climate models differ greatly in their projections of future climatic conditions. It should be important that future research projects on climate change vulnerability are resourceful enough to use of all, or at least the major, climate model data. This would, first of all, decrease the uncertainty, which is very high when using only one climate model and one emission scenario, as done exemplarily here. Using more models and scenarios would also lead to a more robust database upon which to perform sensitivity, impact and vulnerability analyses.

Most importantly, further research is needed with respect to projecting sensitivity indicators into the future. ESPON's DEMIFER project broke new ground in projecting demographic trends up to the year 2100. However, what about other social and economic trends? Of course it is difficult, some may say impossible, to make such long-term projections for issues and variables that are volatile and constantly shaped by human intervention. Thus the challenge of climate change and the advances made in modelling future climates puts pressure on other disciplines to also develop sophisticated models or scenarios. Without such research, any climate change impact or vulnerability assessment is fraught with the great weakness that one can only relate dynamic, future-oriented climate data to static sensitivity data.

1.3 Structure of the book

This book is structured into three parts, each of which starts with introductory chapters. The first part starts with the methodological framework and approach and explains the selection of the forcing scenario and the climate model. The following chapters then analyse the climatic stimuli and the climatic exposure of Europe towards selected climate change parameters. Two chapters assessing economic impacts and an integrated impact assessment to determine regional vulnerability patterns follow this. European adaptive and mitigative capacities, respectively, are subsequently analysed. The adaptive capacity is then integrated into the climate change impacts to determine European regional vulnerabilities.

The second part of the book describes how the methodological approach of the project was both applied and further developed in several case studies. These case studies represent different scales, starting from multi-national river regions through national scales towards a federal state. The case studies also represent different geologic, climatic and socio-economic settings.

The book concludes with future challenges for Europe in integrating climate change vulnerabilities into regional development, for example, cohesion funds.

References

BMVBS (Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development) (ed.) (2010) National Strategies of European Countries for Climate Change adaptation: A Review from a Spatial Planning and Territorial Development Perspective. (pdf) Available at: <http://www.google.de/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCoQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbsr.bund.de%2Fnn_629248%2FBBSR%2FEN%2FPublications%2FBMVBS%2FOnline%2F2010%2FDL__ON212010%2CtemplateId%3Draw%2Cproperty%3DpublicationFile.pdf%2FDL_ON212010.pdf&ei=Udh2UK66NMjmtQaj2oH4Dw&usg=AFQjCNFE-iqs3El57AyBbLL8JWsjpispSA> (accessed 10 October 2012).

Commission of the European Communities (2009) Impact Assessment. Commission Staff Working Document accompanying the White Paper Adapting to Climate Change: Towards a European Framework for Action. Commission of the European Communities, Brussels.

IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007—Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Stern, N. (2007) The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review (online), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Available at: <http://www.hmtreasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_index.cfm> (accessed 26 September 2012).

World Bank (2008) The Global Monitoring Report 2008, World Bank, Washington.

Chapter 2

Methodology for an integrated climate change vulnerability assessment

Johannes Lückenkötter, Christian Lindner and Stefan Greiving

TU Dortmund University, Institute of Spatial Planning (IRPUD), August-Schmidt-Strasse 10, 44227, Dortmund, Germany

Abstract

The ESPON Climate project is based on an IPCC conceptual framework that is widely used in the climate change and impact research community. According to this framework, rising anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions contribute to global warming and thus to climate change. This anthropogenic contribution runs parallel to natural climate variability. The resulting climate changes differ between regions, that is, each region has a different exposure to climate change. In addition, each region has distinct physical, environmental, social, cultural and economic characteristics that result in different sensitivities to climate change. Exposure and sensitivity together determine the possible impact that climatic changes may have on a region. However, a region might in the long run be able to adjust, for example, by increasing its dikes. This adaptive capacity enhances or counteracts the climate change impacts and thus leads to a region's overall vulnerability to climate change.

2.1 Introduction

This chapter describ...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Title Page
• Copyright
• Biographies
• Acknowledgements
• List of Contributors
• Chapter 1: Introducing the pan-European approach to integration on climate change impacts and vulnerabilities into regional development perspectives
• Chapter 2: Methodology for an integrated climate change vulnerability assessment
• Chapter 3: Identifying a typology of climate change in Europe
• Chapter 4: Climate change exposure assessment of European regions
• Chapter 5: Physical, environmental, social and cultural impacts of climate change on Europe's regions
• Chapter 6: Economic impacts of climate change on Europe's regions
• Chapter 7: Assessing adaptive capacity to climate change in European regions
• Chapter 8: Exploring mitigative and response capacities to climate change in European regions
• Chapter 9: Overall impact and vulnerability to climate change in Europe
• Chapter 10: Role of case studies—methodological concept
• Chapter 11: Integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change: the case study North Rhine–Westphalia
• Chapter 12: Climate change impacts on the Hungarian, Romanian and Slovak Territories of the Tisza catchment area
• Chapter 13: Tourism, climate change and water resources: coastal Mediterranean Spain as an example
• Chapter 14: Sensitivity analyses of the ESPON Climate framework, on the basis of the case study on flooding in the Netherlands
• Chapter 15: Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Alpine space: a case study on the adaptive capacity of the tourism sector
• Chapter 16: Comparative analysis of the case studies
• Chapter 17: Implications for territorial development and challenges for the territorial cohesion of the European Union
• Index