CHAPTER 1
A Cloudy Forecast
The cloudâshorthand for âcloud computingâ1âis transforming all spheres of our world: commerce, entertainment, culture, society, education, politics, and religion. Cloud start-ups are forming on a daily basis, and billions of dollars in wealth are being created as companies craft innovative strategies to exploit this opportunity. Conversely, long-standing corporate icons that have failed to do so are becoming history instead of making it.
The concept of a public cloudâshared, on-demand, pay-per-use resources, accessible over a wide-area network, available to a broad range of customersâmight appear to be a recent breakthrough, but there is nothing new under the sun, not even the cloud. The ancient Romans implemented the information superhighway of their time, constructing an unprecedented wide-area network with thousands of route miles of roads, called viae, using state-of-the-art engineering, following documented standards.2 The public network, made of public roads, or viae publicae, was complemented by and interoperable with metro networks, the viae vicinales, and private networks, the viae privatae, creating an Internet of sorts. The roads of the Romans carried people, goods, and soldiers, but, perhaps most important, they also served as a communications network, enabling information, coordination, and control of the far-flung republic and then empire.
These viae were multiprotocol networksâcarrying pedestrians, animals, carts, military chariots, horses, and their ridersâwith class of serviceâmilitary and chariots in the center lane, pedestrians and slower vehicles to the side.3 Net neutrality was assumed: Any citizen could traverse the viae publicae and even had certain rights of passage on the viae privatae.4 By order of Caesar, the core of the network had congestion management: Transport carts were banned from the network coreâthe narrow, winding streets at the heart of Romeâfrom dawn until dusk.5 A complementary architecture was used for streaming content delivery: the aqueducts.
A variety of service providersâinns, taverns, posthouses, and the likeâbecame embedded in the fabric of this network, offering value-added services. Each innâcalled a cauponaâoffered lodging to travelers on an on-demand, pay-per-use basis: The traveler merely showed up, stayed, and paid. The inns serviced different classes of customers, from peasants to citizens and free men, and there were laws concerning security and limitations of liability. According to an edict issued by the praetor, a senior regulatory official of the time, the proprietor, or caupoâthe cloud service provider of the ageâwas responsible for ensuring that the travelerâs belongings were neither stolen nor damaged while resident at the service providerâs facility.6 Acts of the gods, such as fires, were excluded. Authentication, via the presentation of credentials or tokens, tesserae hospitalitatis, was required before service could be rendered.7 Advertising and branding were important even then. In ancient Pompeii, the Elephant Inn had a logo: a painting of a pygmy defending an elephant entrapped by a snake. The signage also offered capacity status updates: hospitium hic locatur (i.e., âinn to letâ).8
Even before Rome, the Greeks had inns, the Persians had public roads, the Assyrians had aqueducts,9 the Babylonians extended credit, and over 4,000 years ago, during the dawn of Western civilization in Sumeria, the advanced production, facilities, and power technologies of the timeâfarm implements, water rights, and oxenâwere offered for access under a pay-per-use model: leasing. Thousands of years later, in the Middle Ages, knightsâ armorâthe intrusion-prevention hardware of the timeâwas also leased.10 It can even be argued that key elements of todayâs cloud computing environments have been anticipated by early biological systems: ant colonies will determine the shortest path to âcontent,â such as sources of food, and exhibit behavioral plasticity, that is, will dynamically allocate resourcesâworker antsâto foraging, patrolling, nest maintenance, and midden work, that is, refuse pile maintenance.11
Clouds Everywhere
This proven architectural and business model, since applied to modern hotels, electricity, coffee shops, taxi fleets, rental car services, and others, has now come to computing, and in computingâas in meteorologyâthe cloud these days is covering a lot of ground. Now, as never before, information technology (IT) and cloud computing are having a broad impact.
The cloud is pervading the prosaic patterns of everyday existence. Teens, tweens, and even toddlers are tapping on touch screens or thumb-typing text messages. Even untethered applications, or âapps,â need to be purchased and downloaded via a cloud-based app store, but, more important, many applications require additional cloud-based services to function. Natural-language interfaces are enabled by cloud-based speech processing and semantic analysis; search requires the near-infinite processing and storage power of the cloud; social gaming is mediated via the cloud; high scores are uploaded to the cloud; apps and content are updated from the cloud; and status updates, files, photos, videos, reviews, and check-ins are shared via the cloud.
The cloud complements the consumerization of IT, and broadens and deepens its democratization. Businesses used to dictate the desktop, laptop, and software used by employees. But if applications in the cloud process data in the cloud, âbring your own deviceâ is a viable strategyâif not without security and interoperability concernsâpotentially reducing corporate expenditures while enabling consumer-employees to make fashion and status statements as well as live a blended work-family lifestyle. Democratization of IT means that not only device access but the creation and modification of applications can expand beyond the IT shop, unleashing a torrent of innovation and motivation through empowerment.
Gaming is moving to the cloud as well. Traditionally, you bought a console and cartridges or discs at a physical store. Then you could order over the Web. Then you could take delivery over the Web, via game downloads from an app store. Then you could use your console over the Internet, with up to four-fifths of gamers using connected consoles to play online, download games, or chat.12 Now, with âcloud gaming,â even high-performance gamesâformerly requiring advanced consoles built to exploit state-of-the-art computing enginesâare being played in real time on the net over even 3G networks, with polygons and video generated remotely but displayed on relatively low-performance endpoints, such as smartphones.13 It would be a mistake to consider gaming merely to be the province of, say, 14- to 24-year-old males. Gaming is not only popular across many demographics, but represents the state of the art in everything from interfaces to performance that will trickle down into more mundane business applications. Moreover, âgamesâ can represent a new era in collaboration: A long-standing problem in HIV researchâthe protein structure of the Mason-Pfizer monkey virus retroviral proteaseâwas recently solved by global players of the online game Foldit, illustrating âthe power of online games to channel human intuition and three-dimensional pattern-matching skills to solve challenging scientific problems.â14
The conduct of commerce is undergoing a revolution, with new players in online retailing, group coupons, video distribution, and bloggingâto name a fewâdramatically disrupting market ecosystems and driving long-established players out of business, while creating fortunes for some in the process. Behind the scenes, cloud-based collaboration, innovation markets, and contests are enabling companies to tap into the smartest and most creative minds in any field, regardless of geographic location. Procter & Gamble explained the straightforward math15: Fewer than 10,000 researchers within the firm, 1.5 million outside. Or letâs go beyond blue-chips: Sites like Mom Invented, which let moms go to market with mechanisms to prevent kids from unrolling toilet paper, are, well, on a roll.16
In short, the cloud is disrupting every dimension of business, whether it is the research, engineering, or design of new products and services; their manufacturing, operations, and delivery; or any point along the customer interface and its myriad moments of truth17âbranding, awareness, catalog, trial, customization, order processing, delivery, installation, support, maintenance, or returns.
Consider the customer engage...