Climate Change Adaptation in Practice

From Strategy Development to Implementation

Philipp Schmidt-Thome, Johannes Klein, Philipp Schmidt-Thome, Johannes Klein

• Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell
• Year: 2013
• Print ISBN: 9780470977002
• eBook ISBN: 9781118474679
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Biological Sciences
• Subtopic: Global Warming & Climate Change
• Index: Biological Sciences

Climate change adaptation is increasingly recognized as complementary part to climate change mitigation.  Climate change affects sea level, the extent of flood prone areas and precipitation patterns among many others. To adapt to these changes, the tasks of municipalities and cities are to implement policies and strategies for changes in land use and coastal management as part of their future development.  It is of vital importance to address the uncertainties of climate change scenarios when proposing adaptation measures that are socially viable and economically reasonable.  The decision making process, promoted here, is based on scientific excellence as well on an integrated communication process.

This book provides a comprehensive overview of key elements required for effective analysis and assessment of climate change impacts, economic cost-benefit analysis, communication processes and creation and transfer of knowledge, governance issues and implementation of related policies. It describes the results achieved by the BaltCICA (www.baltcica.org) project whose contributors come from the scientific and public administration communities. The regional cooperation has led to the implementation of climate change adaptation in several case studies. The BaltCICA project developed concepts, methodologies and tools for climate change adaptation that can be translated across other global regions. 

Scientists and students working on the development of climate change and adaptation strategies;  public administrators in the related fields on local, regional and state level including environment, water management, civil defense; as well as professionals working with adaptation technologies, including engineering, technological solutions, urban planning agencies and construction, will value this innovative book. 

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Communicating Climate Change Adaptation: From Strategy Development to Implementation

Philipp Schmidt-Thomé1, Johannes Klein1,2, Anika Nockert1, Larissa Donges3 & Inga Haller4

1Geological Survey of Finland (GTK), Espoo, Finland

2Aalto University, Espoo, Finland

3Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock, Germany

4EUCC -- The Coastal Union Germany, Rostock, Germany

1.1 Introduction

This book displays climate change adaptation measures that were developed and implemented in the Baltic Sea Region. International and European institutions, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as well as the EU Commission (2009) have identified the necessity of actions to go beyond strategies and called for the implementation of adaptation measures (IPCC, 2007; COM, 2009). Examples that demonstrate the need for the implementation of climate change adaptation measures to be politically pushed towards the local level are the resolution on resilient cities adopted by the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of the Council of Europe (2012), the position paper on climate change by the Association of Finnish Local and Regional Authorities (Suomen Kuntaliitto, 2010) or the recently published policy document on climate change adaptation by the German Association of Cities (2012). The latter paper lists a number of adaptation measures cities shall take into consideration for future land-use planning.

Consistent with these calls for action, the Climate Change: Impacts, Costs and Adaptation in the Baltic Sea Region (BaltCICA) project particularly focused on the implementation of adaptation measures, which are summarised in this book. Representatives of regional and local authorities, municipalities, research institutes of various disciplines and universities from eight countries1 participated in the project. The BaltCICA project was the third consecutive project on climate change adaptation in the Baltic Sea Region conducted under the Geological Survey of Finland. The first of these projects, SEAREG,2 focused on awareness raising and structuring of the science-stakeholder dialogue. The second project, ASTRA,3 identified climate change impacts on regional development and formulated adaptation strategies. The BaltCICA project drew on the experiences of these projects and contributed to the implementation of adaptation measures. It produced new knowledge relating to climate change impacts, costs and benefits and governance of adaptation. It reduced uncertainty in decision-making in relation to adaptation by strengthening science-decision maker links and it increased participation of stakeholders and citizens in decision-making on adaptation measures.

Thirteen case studies dealt with a broad range of thematic areas, especially focusing on land-use planning and urban development for adaptation. Interdisciplinary work enabled a multi-faceted approach to these topics. This included modelling of climate change impacts on groundwater and flood-prone areas; the participatory development of adaptation measures with the cooperation of citizens, authorities, scientists and representatives of economic sectors; as well as the assessment of adaptation options with respect to costs, benefits and less tangible criteria such as environmental impacts or aesthetics. These methods were closely interlinked in order to foster climate change adaptation at the local level.

The methodologies to identify and implement adaptation measures were developed on a local level and communicated among project partners via study visits and workshops. These workshops enabled other project partners to both learn about new methodologies and to further develop them according to specific local needs in their respective case studies.

Scenario workshops were designed and employed for direct science-stakeholder cooperation. This methodology was adapted to local circumstances of each case study and applied to identify needs and viabilities of decision-making processes towards implementing adaptation measures. Adapting or changing current land-use plans and underlying regulations, is often a lengthy process. Therefore concrete adaptation actions have been employed in only some of the case study areas, meanwhile in several other municipalities decisions are currently being taken or are high on the political agenda. In any case, the BaltCICA project has had a notable impact in the case studies on developing methodologies on how to take the step ahead from formulating climate change adaptation strategies towards specific adaptation measures.

The project partners have communicated their activities and results beyond the Baltic Sea Region and Europe. In the course of these dissemination activities several new project ideas were born. Some international activities therefore round the book up with examples on how climate change adaptation is perceived and dealt with in areas outside of the Baltic Sea Region.

1.2 Structuring the communication processes

The identification of adaptation necessities and potentials requires interdisciplinary cooperation, not only between scientific disciplines but especially between scientists and stakeholders (including decision makers) (e.g. Adger et al., 2009; Dessai & Hulme, 2004). Therefore the communication process plays a key role. Only if decision makers, scientists and involved citizens agree on local necessities of adaptation options is it possible to develop reasonable and cost-effective options that can be implemented. For decision makers it is usually not practicable to develop measures against impacts that might potentially occur in 100 years. In the daily business of decision makers, the focus is often on current and near future land use patterns. Therefore it is necessary to understand motivations and interests of decision makers in order to find entry points in planning that may respect developments that lie in the farther future. It was shown during the project work that adaptation concepts that can be embedded into current political demands and interests raise the interest and thus also the acceptability among decision makers.

The communication with stakeholders during the BaltCICA project and its predecessors showed that overall ‘tool boxes’ are difficult to deploy or can even be counterproductive, as every municipality has its own history and special characters. An overall adaptation concept is often received sceptically, so that general concepts, for example, on how to start and endorse communication processes are helpful. But finally each approach for every respective case study has to be completely adapted to the special requirements of each respective case study.

It also turned out that preferred adaptation options are in fact those of no-regret character, that is, those that also offer protection to current hazard patterns. It proved useful to start off with current extreme events (including historical records) rather than using those of potential flood events that might occur in the future. The potential impacts of current extreme events revealed recent developments of local vulnerability patterns. Often it turned out that assets had been constructed in unsuitable, that is, currently hazard prone areas. In the communication process land use developments and future options were then combined with potential changes in sea level and hydro-meteorological phenomena.

The combination of current and potential future land use patterns, climate variables and extreme events then lead to an integrated understanding of present as well as emerging risk patterns. In some case studies adaptation measures were designed to avoid or withstand current impacts, with an outlook on enhancing these measures along with ongoing climate change. In these cases adaptation measures are currently being put into practice. In other cases even more radical approaches of retreat were discussed, which would be implemented and aligned to the life cycles of buildings and infrastructure, and the development of climate impacts.

The examples displayed in this book show that whatever option on climate change adaptation might seem to be important from a scientific perspective, the structure of the communication process with stakeholders is the decisive factor to implement cost effective as well as politically and socially acceptable implementation measures.

1.3 Climate change induced physical impacts on the Baltic Sea Region

Impacts of climate change occur and are perceived differently throughout the Baltic Sea Region. Depending on local circumstances, climate change adaptation processes are in various stages and address different challenges. This section gives an overview on climate change impacts in the Baltic Sea Region, as based on current scientific knowledge. Local impacts are, where necessary, further described and analysed in the respective case studies.

1.3.1 Air Surface Temperature (AST)

Long-term observations of the Baltic Sea Basin mean AST indicates both decadal and seasonal trends. Annual temperature anomaly estimates show stronger fluctuations for the northern areas (north of 60°N) for the investigation period 1961--2001 (Jones & Moberg, 2003; HELCOM, 2007). Negative AST anomalies until the 1920s were followed by a first warming phase ending in the 1930s (0.274 K/decade). After a period of cooling (−0.156 K/decade) the annual AST anomalies increased steadily since the 1970s, exceeding any previously observed rates in the early 1990s (1977--2001: 0.364 K/decade) (Jones & Moberg, 2003).

For the Baltic Sea Region south of 60°N the AST development is not dramatic. Up until the 1970s, no significant AST trends can be observed. Nevertheless, an even more distinctive AST increase since 1985 (1977--2001: 0.425 K/decade) (Jones & Moberg, 2003), was recorded and was strongest south and east of Tallinn and St Petersburg due to changing patterns of the atmospheric circulation (HELCOM, 2007). The annual linear AST trends for the investigation period 1871--2004 show an overall increase of 0.07 K/decade for latitudes <60°N and of 0.10 K/decade for latitudes >60°N (Heino et al., 2008). With an annual warming trend of 0.08 K/decade, the Baltic Sea ASTs increase faster than global temperatures (0.05 K/decade) (HELCOM, 2007).

For the southern area seasonal trends are significant in spring, autumn and winter, with the highest increase (0.11 K/decade) for spring temperatures (HELCOM, 2007; Heino et al., 2008). In the northern Baltic Sea Basin the most distinct warming trend is also recorded in spring (0.15 K/decade), whereas the development of winter temperatures is insignificant (Heino et al., 2008). Among other consequences, this resulted in a significantly prolonged growing season in the Baltic Sea Region.

Despite certain caveats and uncertainties, all existing projections indicate that atmospheric temperatures in the Baltic Sea Basin may continue to warm during the next decades. Simulations based on the IPCC A2 and B2 emissions scenarios of future AST in 2071--2100 show changes relative to the reference period 1961--90 between 2.8--4.8 K for the Baltic Sea Region (Meier, 2006). There are seasonal differences, indicating a stronger increase in wintertime AST as compared to summertime AST, which are especially high in the northern and eastern sub-regions of the Baltic Sea (Räisänen et al., 2004; HELCOM, 2007). Meier (2006) found the largest monthly mean AST change of 6 K in February (2071--2100). Moreover, the southern parts of the Baltic Sea Region may experience a more pronounced warming in summer than the northern parts (HELCOM, 2007).

1.3.2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

As the Baltic Sea is a relatively small and shallow semi-enclosed sea characterized by a low and strongly varying salinity of its surface waters (approximately 20 practical salinity units (PSU) in the Kattegat and 1–2 PSU in the Bothnian Bay and Gulf of Finland) (HELCOM, 2012), changes in SST occur comparatively fast. This holds true for both seasonal and long-term responses of sea temperatures to solar radiation and air temperatures.

Depending on the investigation period, analyses of SST data lead to different results. A reason for that is the long-term variability in the thermal development of the Baltic Sea. For example, the past 100 years were characterized by warming phases in 1920--40 and since the 1970s. These warming phases were interrupted by colder periods, whereby the SST increase rates of 0.65 K/decade since 1985 are unprecedented (Siegel, Gerth & Tschersich, 2008). The warmest years are observed since 1999 when there was a temperature rise of 0.8 K/year (Siegel, Gerth & Tschersich, 2006; HELCOM, 2007), showing strong seasonal and regional variations. The rise of temperatures in summer and autumn mainly determined the positive trend in SST for the Baltic Sea (Siegel, Gerth & Tschersich, 2008). On the other hand, analyses of modelled mean water temperatures for 1970 and 2002, averaged over all depths of the Baltic Sea, showed no trend at all (Heino et al., 2008).

Current simulations of the SST in the Baltic Sea Basin project a positive warming trend for the next decades. Regional coupled atmosphere-ocean models forced by the B2 and A2 emissions scenarios project an increase in annual mean SST between 2 to 4 Kelvin in the period 2071--2100 compared to 1961--1990, which would be most pronounced in the southern and central Baltic Sea (HELCOM, 2007). In comparison, Neumann and Friedland (2011), based their projections on the IPCC B1 and A1B emissions scenarios, assumed an increase in the order of 2–3.5 K until the end of the 21st century.

1.3.3 Precipitation

Compared to other parameters, precipitation varies greatly in time and space. Due to this and the poor data coverage as well as differing measurement techniques, it is difficult to establish long-term trends for the Baltic Sea Basin. Long-term observations indicate seasonally varying precipitation patterns. For each season, both increasing and decreasing trends can be found for the per...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Title Page
• Copyright
• List of Contributors
• About the Editors
• Chapter 1: Communicating Climate Change Adaptation: From Strategy Development to Implementation
• Chapter 2: Participatory Climate Change Adaptation in Kalundborg, Denmark
• Chapter 3: Adaptation to Sea Level Rise: Calculating Costs and Benefits for the Case Study Kalundborg, Denmark
• Chapter 4: Coastal Protection and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Didactically Processed Examples
• Chapter 5: Preparing for Climate Change: Planning Adaptation to Climate Change in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area, Finland
• Chapter 6: Adaptation to Floods in Riga, Latvia: Historical Experience and Change of Approaches
• Chapter 7: Climate Adaptation in Metropolis Hamburg: Paradigm Shift in Urban Planning and Water Management towards ‘Living with Water’?
• Chapter 8: Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Bergen: Ideals and Realities
• Chapter 9: Adaptation to Climate Change in the Smeltalė River Basin, Lithuania
• Chapter 10: The Geological Structure of Pyynikinharju Esker and the Local Effects of Climate Change
• Chapter 11: Climate Change and Groundwater: Impacts and Adaptation in Shallow Coastal Aquifer in Hanko, South Finland
• Chapter 12: Climate Change and Groundwater – From Modelling to some Adaptation Means in Example of Klaipėda Region, Lithuania
• Chapter 13: Climate Change – A New Opportunity for Mussel Farming in the Southern Baltic?
• Chapter 14: Impacts of Sea Level Change to the West Estonian Coastal Zone towards the End of the 21st Century
• Chapter 15: Geodynamical Conditions of the Karklė Beach (Lithuania) and Adaptation to Sea Level Change
• Chapter 16: Consequences of Climate Change and Environmental Policy for Macroalgae Accumulations on Beaches along the German Baltic Coastline
• Chapter 17: Climate Change Impacts on Baltic Coastal Tourism and the Complexity of Sectoral Adaptation
• Chapter 18: Tourists' Perception of Coastal Changes – A Contribution to the Assessment of Regional Adaptation Strategies?
• Chapter 19: Experiences in Adapting to Climate Change and Climate Risks in Spain
• Chapter 20: Developing Adaptation Policies in the Agriculture Sector: Indonesia's Experience
• Chapter 21: ‘Climate Refugee’ Is Not a Hoax. But We can Avoid it. Empirical Evidence from the Bangladesh Coast
• Chapter 22: Promoting Risk Insurance in the Asia-Pacific Region: Lessons from the Ground for the Future Climate Regime under UNFCCC
• Index