Wisdom on Value Investing

How to Profit on Fallen Angels

Gabriel Wisdom

• Publisher: Wiley
• Year: 2009
• Print ISBN: 9780470457306
• eBook ISBN: 9780470530887
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Business
• Subtopic: Finance
• Index: Business

Wisdom on Value Investing offers author Gabriel Wisdom's insights on succeeding in difficult markets. One of his favorite approaches-which is part classic value investing and part behavioral finance-is called "The Fallen Angels Investment Strategy, " and it prepares investors to look past short-term value assumptions in order to capture profits. Throughout this book, Wisdom will show you how to capitalize on value plays where the fundamentals are actually strong, but the "general wisdom" surrounding the security has turned negative. He discusses how stocks with the most promise are ones that Wall Street has marked down without regard to their underlying value, and reveals how this type of intrinsic value discount provides a margin of safety during difficult times, and substantial upside rewards for those who find them early enough.

• Takes value investing one step further by mixing significant amounts of behavioral finance into the analysis
• Prepares investors to take advantage of other's mistakes
• A time-tested strategy for any type of market-up or down

A classic look at value investing with a twist, this book will put you in a better position to succeed in both bull and bear markets.

Includes a Foreword by Mary Buffett and David Clark, authors of Buffettology.

CHAPTER 1

Ten Traits of the World’s Greatest Bargain Hunters

If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period? Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. This reaction makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.

Warren Buffett

Successful investing isn’t rocket science; it’s harder.

Michael J. Moore, portfolio manager

The world’s greatest investors are like rock stars. Masters of the universe, from a distance the great ones are larger than life. They possess an almost magical ability to extract great sums of wealth from thin air. And they make it look easy, or the result of plain old-fashioned luck. Perhaps that’s why the conventional wisdom holds that “investing is not rocket science.” However, the assumption that anyone, regardless of training, can make money using money is false. My colleague and business partner Mike Moore likes to say that if investing were rocket science, it would be far easier to succeed as an investor than it actually is. After all, rocket science relies on the immutable laws of physics, which work every time. Successful investing requires that you train yourself to be skeptical of what everyone seems to know at the time, including investment soothsayers of all stripes.

Look back over the last 200-plus years of investing in the U.S. stock market, and markets of all kinds, and you will see a road littered with the good intentions of people who, relying on irrefutable logic, thought they would make money, but instead lost it all. Sprinkled among the losers are the consistent winners, who generally buy and sell at the right times and consequently profit from their investments. The process itself is straightforward enough—buy a stock or a business or some real estate at one price and sell it at a future date for a higher price. It couldn’t be any easier, could it?

Of course, anyone with experience in financial markets knows that making consistent, solid, profitable investments over time is anything but simple or easy.

Why do some people have a magic touch and others the kiss of death when buying and selling stocks?

In answering this pivotal question, one very helpful exercise is to study the habits of successful investors, in much the same way that a researcher such as Jane Goodall studies the behavior of chimpanzees to learn how they thrive in the wild. Fortunately, for this endeavor, we don’t have to camp out in the African bush and sleep with gorillas. Instead, we can study the trades made by the world’s top investors over the years and glean insight into the methods behind their astonishing successes. We can gather these bits and pieces together to form a set of rules to live by in the rough-and-tumble arena of stock marketing investing. I call these rules the Ten Traits of the World’s Most Successful Investors. They are intended as a guide for anyone who wants to dip a toe in the water of investing without taking a bath. They form the foundation of my approach to successful investing and serve as a jumping-off point on any discussion of the finer points of making money in the stock market.

It’s important to recognize that the traits of top investors run counter to the instincts of most, if not all, human beings. As I will discuss in more detail in the coming pages, we are hardwired to avoid pain and seek pleasure, and that means we want, even need, to sell when prices are plunging and buy when they are rising.

When the value of our investments is dropping, our DNA literally programs us to sell to avoid further losses, and when we see everyone around us complacently whooping it up over a market that only seems to go up, it programs us to follow the herd even though common sense and our observations of the most successful investors would tell us otherwise.

The good news is that with proper preparation, education, and planning, we can overcome our impulses and make decisions that are diametrically opposed to what the mob is doing at any point in time. In this way, we can avoid the psychological and behavioral forces that cause many people to panic and lock in losses when the market takes a downturn. In the face of hysteria, we can buy bargain-priced stocks when the market is tanking. We can temper our delirium when prices are rising and force ourselves to make a cool, calculated decision to sell, thus locking in profits and eliminating our risks.

Trait #1: Buy When Everyone Is Complaining, and Sell When They Are Celebrating

Buy when everyone else is selling and hold until everyone else is buying. That’s not just a catchy slogan. It’s the very essence of successful investing.

J. Paul Getty

The number one trait of successful investors is the ability to buy stocks (or whatever) when everyone else is panicking, and to sell when others are overly optimistic. This has been a hallmark of the world’s greatest investors since the days of Homer. Renowned oilman and investor J. Paul Getty said he got rich by buying when everyone else was complaining, and selling when they were celebrating. Former prominent hedge fund manager Mark Sellers told a graduating class of Har vard MBAs that the ability to succeed as an investor has nothing to do with IQ or education. “Everyone thinks they can do this, but then when the market is crashing all around you, almost no one has the stomach to buy.” Warren Buffett has observed that you always pay a premium for a cheery consensus.

Sure, the price of an undervalued stock may continue to fall after we have made a thoughtful purchase, and it might keep going up after we have cashed out. Timing the market to the precise top or bottom of any particular stock or industry segment is, for all practical purposes, impossible. The trick is to avoid getting rattled by the fluctuations of the market, leading to a precipitous buy or sell decision. Rather, the successful investor relies on his or her inner compass, based on a dispassionate analysis of the intrinsic value of a stock and market sentiment.

Trait #2: Have a Methodology to Weigh the Value of Your Holdings

If I had eight hours to chop down a tree, I’d spend six sharpening my axe.

Abraham Lincoln

The number two trait of top investors is to have a methodology for valuing the investments you hold or are thinking about buying. The price determined by an independent analysis is likely to be different from the current market price.

The world’s best investors look at a company’s share price relative to revenue, free cash flow, earnings momentum, and the rate at which shareholder equity is compounding. All of these factors can help determine the intrinsic value of a given stock, independent of what the market says that day.

This gives investors the luxury of ignoring market fluctuations; instead, they determine by their own objective criteria whether a stock is overpriced, priced near its actual value, or priced below its intrinsic value, making it a potential bargain and a candidate for our label of “Fallen Angel,” which was originally an old Wall Street term to describe a stock or bond whose market price has declined due to such circumstances as business cycles, recessions, or setbacks for the company in question.

Not all marked-down stocks qualify as Fallen Angels; some companies deserve to be devalued and should not be purchased even if their share prices are depressed.

Trait #3: Stick to Your Methodology When Times Are Tough

If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.

George Soros

The third trait of successful investors is having the wherewithal to stick to their guns, even when their actions run against the grain of market behavior and open them to criticism. We humans crave affirmation of our actions from our peers, friends, relatives, even total strangers. We feel comfort in knowing we are in the same boat as others, as evidenced in the old adage “misery loves company.” Unfortunately, misery is often the fate of investors who blindly follow the market’s rollercoaster swings. When it comes to successful investing, the crowd is often wrong. Those who mimic the crowd’s actions also share in its financial losses.

That’s why I urge you to develop your own criteria for deciding what a stock is worth, and then use those criteria even when it means bucking market trends. In the end, you should be better off for setting your own financial course. That means basing both buying and selling decisions on the stock’s intrinsic value, rather than getting swept up in the irrational highs or lows brought on by market swings.

Don’t get complacent and expect a stock to keep going up forever, because it won’t. Set a target for when to sell in advance, based on the analytical tools at your disposal, and stick to it, even if you think the stock is likely to keep going up. The chances of figuring out exactly when a stock has peaked are about as good as predicting the odds of a football game. Follow the lead of savvy investors and do your homework, determine when a stock has met or surpassed its intrinsic value by a reasonable margin, and then sell while others are eager to buy, locking in your profits.

Trait #4: Have an Exit Strategy

If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right three or four times out of ten should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong.

Bernard Baruch

The fourth trait of successful investors—having an exit strategy—dovetails with my last point. As I discussed earlier, decisions on whether to buy or sell are infinitely easier—and smarter—when you have pegged the intrinsic value of the stock based on your own measuring stick, apart from the fickle feelings of market mavens.

Great investors don’t pull the trigger on a purchase or sale based on a spur-of-the-moment impulse tied to the emotional ups and downs of the market. Instead, they plan and think about the optimum time to get in or out, then follow through with their strategies in logical, dispassionate fashion. The rest of us would do well to follow the lead of world-class investors, who chart their own course and often act in a manner contrary to the investing masses.

By paying careful attention to the intrinsic value of the companies, you are buying and selling in relation to what the market thinks they’re worth. By watching the reactions of the market to external stimuli, over time you will hone your ability to judge the most opportune times to enter or exit the stock market.

Under the Fallen Angels strategy, three occurrences generally inform us that it’s time to sell: The company has met or exceeded our estimate of its intrinsic value; a fundamental change has taken place in the market or the company that negatively affects the company’s ability to generate returns for shareholders; or we need to raise cash to invest in another, more favorable, opportunity.

The decision to sell should always be tied to a specific reason or goal, rather than following the investing crowd. Further, I advocate that whenever possible, investors should hold their purchases for the long term, a horizon of three to five years, to reap the benefits of compounding after-tax rates of return.

That’s not to say I advocate joining the “buy-and-hold” crowd, who buy a stock and hang on to it forever, regardless of the prospects of the company.

Paul Samuelson, Nobel laureate and professor of economics at MIT, conducted research that convincingly refuted the “buy and hold” strategy. Samuelson called that method of investing a young person’s game, reasoning that younger people have more time to recover from market crashes. While that may be true, no one has forever, and history shows that the longer you hold on to a broadly diversified portfolio, the higher the odds you will experience a significant market downturn.

As an example, stock market investors in the 1920s were flying high, enjoying fat profits. They were comfortable and complacent, but a few years later their portfolios had lost 81 percent of their value. Eventually, prices did climb back to pre-Depression levels. But few of us can wait 20 or 25 years for our investments to recover from a major crash. The world’s greatest investors recognize that investing over the long term does carry its own risks.

Trait #5: Be Properly Diversified, Not Overly Diversified

I don’t want a lot of good investments. I want a few outstanding ones.

Phillip Fisher

For the next trait of top investors, let’s take a peek inside their carefully managed portfolios. Trait number five is being properly—but not overly—diversified.

Diversity in a portfolio can be a good thing, but too little or too much of a good thing becomes a liability. With a properly diversified portfolio, a savvy investor can expect a 70 percent chance, or better, of making a profit. Who wouldn’t like those odds?

Successful investors do their homework, find stocks they rate highly, and confidently buy large positions in those issues.

It’s just as bad to have too little diversity. One common mistake made by investors is to buy only the winners, the darlings of the last market cycle. People come late to the party, wanting to put all of their money in whatever stock is hot. They pay little attention to fundamental valuations, but instead act on the “news” of the day, which is out of date by the time it hits newsprint, the airwaves, or cyberspace. Another way to be poorly diversified is to keep too much money in cash, with just a small position in quality companies. Investors believe they are mitigating risk with such a strategy, when in fact, they are guaranteeing that even if their investments do phenomenally well, they’ll make little or nothing. Such a strategy, if you can call it that, has no upside.

When it comes to investment allocations, I like an approach I’ve heard referred to as the rule of 100. Some have referred to it as the Couch Potato strategy because you can lounge in your La-Z-Boy, and make asset allocation changes just once a year. Start with 100, and subtract your age. If you’re 40, put 40 percent of your investment dollars in bonds, cash, and other low-risk instruments, and put the remaining 60 percent in growth-oriented equities. If you’re 60, reverse the allocation, with 60 percent in bonds and ...

Table of contents

• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Dedication
• Foreword
• Preface
• Acknowledgements
• CHAPTER 1 - Ten Traits of the World’s Greatest Bargain Hunters
• CHAPTER 2 - Fallen, Not Falling (An Important Distinction)
• CHAPTER 3 - Great Moments in Bottom Fishing: The Fallen Angels Hall of Fame
• CHAPTER 4 - Buy CATS (Cheap and Timely Securities), Avoid Dogs
• CHAPTER 5 - Cycles and Wall Street’s Wheel of Fortune
• CHAPTER 6 - Who Wants to Be a Billionaire?
• CHAPTER 7 - Time Arbitrage, the Rational Investor’s Ally
• CHAPTER 8 - The Pilot’s Checklist for Safe and Effective Investing
• CHAPTER 9 - The Science of Demographics: A Glimpse into the Future
• CHAPTER 10 - How to Pick Stocks: The Fallen Angels Formula
• CHAPTER 11 - Profit from Panic, Corrections, and Volatility
• CHAPTER 12 - The Little Chapter that Makes You a Better Investor
• CHAPTER 13 - Will You Know When to Sell?
• CHAPTER 14 - Real Estate: The Other Fallen Angel Opportunity
• CHAPTER 15 - Ten Fallen Angels for the Next Five Years
• CHAPTER 16 - Stocks and Bonds and Rock and Roll: My Story
• Appendix - RECOMMENDED BOOKS, WEB SITES, AND HELPFUL SOURCES
• About the Authors
• Index