Winning the Day Trading Game

Lessons and Techniques from a Lifetime of Trading

Thomas L. Busby, Patsy Busby Dow, Patsy Busby Dow

• Publisher: Wiley
• Year: 2023
• Print ISBN: 9780471738237, 9780471738237
• eBook ISBN: 9781118046241
• Topic: Business
• Subtopic: Finance
• Index: Business

Take a proven approach to short-term trading. Winning the Day Trading Game offers an insider's view of the trading life and provides proven strategies for profitable trading. Professional trader Tom Busby explains how the strategies that made him so much money early on in his career ultimately failed during the 1987 stock market crash and then reveals how he reinvented himself as a high-percentage day trader. He interweaves personal experiences with technical explanations to outline the cornerstones of his technique. In highlighting his own trading experiences, Busby clearly explains how to beat the market by balancing the impulses of greed and fear, managing risk at all times; and taking responsibility for your trading. Thomas L. Busby (Mobile, AL) has been a professional trader and broker for 25 years, working with Merrill Lynch and Smith Barney. He founded the Day Trading Institute in 1996 and it has grown into one of the most successful trading schools in the world.

CHAPTER 1

The Crucible Black Monday

October 19, 1987. When the sun rose on that Monday morning, I felt financially secure. I had a great job, a beautiful house, nice cars, money in the bank, and a belief that the future would bring me greater and greater riches. By the time the sun set that evening, I was broke!

During the course of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 500 points. The Dow lost approximately 22 percent of its total value in a single day. One trillion dollars of financial assets vanished as quickly as a tiny puff of smoke in a strong wind. And, of course, the Dow was not alone. The Nasdaq also fell, losing more than ten percent of its value.

The United States financial markets underwent a free fall and there seemed to be no stopping, or even bracing, the fall. Furthermore, the decline was not limited to the United States. Major markets around the globe took a nosedive. It was as though a flame on Wall Street quickly got out of control and spread around the world faster than a fire in a parched, dense thicket. Close to home, the Canadian market reeled from historical losses and dropped over 20 percent before the disaster ended. The international scene was not any better: by the week’s end, the average stock value on the London Financial Times Stock Exchange had declined by over 20 percent; Asian markets also tumbled. On October 20, the Nikkei experienced the biggest loss in its history. The market in Singapore was down significantly for the week. After experiencing a huge decline on October 20, the Hang Seng closed for days. In the wake of the crash, the Australian market suffered a record double-digit loss. Some exchanges and indices closed for a few days in the hope that the break or timeout would serve to calm jittery nerves. The reality of a global economy became all too real.

What caused the crash? Theories were cheap. Everybody had one. Program traders, soaring federal debt, high bond yields, market overvaluation—these were only a few of the speculated causes. In reality, all of these factors probably played a role. I didn’t know the cause, and I really didn’t care.

To me, the debate was strictly academic. What was real was that I, and some of my clients and dearest friends, had lost a lot of money. I had lost not only my wealth, but my self-confidence as well. I was broke and my faith in my trading ability was undermined. I grieved for my clients and for myself.

Even in the depths of my despair, there was no time for pity or resignation. I had a wife and two small children depending on me. It was time to be tested. Failure was not an option.

FROM PORK BELLIES TO PAN AM

At the time of the crash, I had been a trader for almost a decade. My experiences with the stock market began in 1978 when I was stationed in Spain with the U.S. Air Force. One of my fellow officers was trading pork bellies. He often talked to me about his experiences and the money he was making. He made it all sound very exciting and easy. I knew absolutely nothing about trading pork bellies or anything else, but I wanted a piece of the action. I did not have a clue as to how to begin, and the only brokerage firm I had ever heard of was Merrill Lynch. (This was back in the days when their major television advertisement was the bull in the china shop.) I truly thought that Merrill Lynch was the only brokerage firm in existence.

I was stationed at Torrejon Air Force Base in Madrid and the brokerage house was in the city’s central business district. I had to use the subway, which I usually avoided because I found it so difficult. My Spanish was poor and my southern accent added a slow twang to the few Spanish words that I knew. Then, as now, I couldn’t roll my tongue. In an effort to communicate, I gestured profusely. This small-town boy found downtown Madrid daunting. As I searched for the brokerage office, I just kept asking directions and gesturing. It was southern Spanish spoken with hand signals.

When I finally arrived at the office, I opened an equities account with the intention of trading pork bellies. I was so ignorant and naive that I didn’t understand that pork bellies were a commodity and, therefore, couldn’t be traded via a stock account. If you want to know the truth, I am not sure I even knew that pork bellies were commodities and equities were stocks. At any rate, I am sure that I did not have a clear view of the significant distinctions between the two.

Nevertheless, I opened an account. The military published The Stars and Stripes, a paper to boost the spirits of service people abroad and to help them stay in touch with events at home. I began following the financial information and paid close attention to the stock quotes, even though the quotes were about three days old. That was the extent of my market research. After reading The Stars and Stripes for a number of days, and considering the information presented, I decided to purchase my first stock. I bought 100 shares of Pan Am and another 100 shares of Eastern Airlines. I eagerly awaited every issue of The Stars and Stripes so that I could follow the fluctuating price of my holdings. It was exciting to be a stockholder and I enjoyed talking about my new portfolio.

Unfortunately, in the long run, my investments did not work out and both companies filed for bankruptcy. I had no stops; it was an all or nothing mentality. When both of my stock picks eventually went belly up, I lost everything from my first venture. However, I was not easily dissuaded. One loss did not make me a quitter. I enjoyed investing and I continued to study the markets looking for other stocks to purchase and other investment opportunities. Trading was the closest profession to sports that I had ever tried and I quickly gravitated to it. I had no idea that I would eventually become a professional trader. I just enjoyed the markets.

My Avocation Becomes My Vocation

After getting out of the military and returning to the United States, I settled in Oklahoma City and started attending law school. Trading for a living was not part of my life plan; in fact, I never even considered it. I intended to be a lawyer. I enrolled in law school while also continuing to invest in a small trading account. My trading was a hobby from which I hoped to eventually make a few bucks. My broker, Henry, and I soon developed a friendship and he introduced me to stock options in oil companies. At that time, oil was king in Oklahoma City. Henry taught me his trading strategy for options. It was a very easy three-step plan that he called the Bigger Fool Theory. The essence of the theory was simple: Buy a stock at a high price and there is always someone (a bigger fool) who will buy it from you at an even higher price.

Here is how the system worked. A stock price would rise one day, we bought it on the second day, and we sold it on the following day. I began regularly watching the market. Just as the strategy dictated, if an oil stock went up one day, I bought it on the second day, and then I sold it on the third day. Believe it or not, I successfully executed this strategy over and over again. Oklahoma City was booming and oil prices seemed to go up every day. The Bigger Fool Theory was working like a charm for me and my account was growing. I seemed to have a knack with options as evidenced by my profits. I didn’t know that the odds of trading options to the long side were like playing the lottery.

One day I was surprised to receive an invitation to come to the local brokerage house and meet the boss. From the time I entered the door until the time I left the office, I was treated like royalty. I soon learned that the office manager was aware of my successful options trading. Everyone seemed to be impressed and they offered me a position. I was still attending law school and planned to finish my studies. I was not sure I wanted to be a broker or work in the financial field. I intended to be a lawyer. I communicated my feelings to them. However, the firm offered me a chance to achieve both objectives: accept the position with them and attend law school at night. I could be a broker in the Oklahoma City office and my studies would not be interrupted. It was an offer I could not refuse. I took the deal. From that day forward, my life would never be the same. I began the journey to becoming a trader. I started to educate myself about the stock market. I wanted to learn all of Wall Street’s secrets.

Soon I received training in New York; not long thereafter I obtained my brokerage license and I returned to Oklahoma City where I honed my skills. I did well and gained the confidence of my clients and the management team at Merrill. I was dedicated to profitably managing my clients’ portfolios and assisting them with their financial wealth management. I liked the industry and saw the potential to succeed and achieve my personal goals. Trading was both a passion and a profession for me. I loved it.

In 1982, the S&P Futures opened for trading. It was a watershed day for me. On that first day, I made the best and the worst single trade of my career. I bought the S&P at the open for a price of approximately 118.70. With the S&P currently trading at 1220.00, the trade would be worth $275,000.00 today! And that is just for one contract! That was my best trade ever because I have been buying it and selling it ever since. However, I also sold the S&P; that was my worst trade because if I had kept it, my investment would have yielded me incredible profits.

So, from the very beginning, I traded the futures indices. After studying futures, I added to my credentials by receiving a license to trade them. I quickly fell in love with this new market. As a beginning broker, I became concerned about the limitations of a one-way trading strategy. That is, if you buy stocks, you can only make a profit if the stock prices rise. But stocks move both ways. They go up and they go down. Therefore, the strategy that I had been taught was flawed. I knew I needed a strategy that worked in both bull and bear markets. Futures offered me the flexibility and the versatility that I needed. A stock trader with the best bull strategy in the world cannot profit from a bear market. Futures are not so restrictive. A good futures trader can make just as much money in a bearish market (maybe even more) than in a bull market. Trading opportunities are doubled. The trick is, of course, to correctly read the market and trade on the right side of it. That is where experience and education pay off.

I worked long hours and after four hard years, I was reaping the benefits. Within a short time I moved on and accepted a position with another established firm where I became a vice-president. I was one of the biggest producers in the office and, in fact, in the region.

Options became my obsession. You might say that I never met an option that I wouldn’t sell. Just before the crash in 1987, I had assisted one of my largest clients in making over a million dollars in the options market. That is a million dollars of profit in one month! I was one of the biggest retail options traders in the United States. I thought I was one of the chosen. Walking on water didn’t seem like that hard of a task. Then, came October 19, 1987, the day the floor evaporated beneath my feet.

My Mistake

I lost a lot of money on Black Monday. Let me tell you what happened. On Thursday, October 15, I was holding two contrary market positions. I was long 1000 S&P 100 puts and I was also short 1000 S&P 100 puts. My short position was offset by my long position and vise versa. There was no problem because the offsetting positions were my insurance against calamity. I was protected regardless of where the market traveled.

My problem surfaced on Friday the 16, just before the crash; my long positions expired but my short positions did not. They did not expire for another month; I was holding naked options. In other words, I had sold 1000 options that I did not own; I had guaranteed a buyer that I would deliver the options if the strike price was hit. On Black Monday the strike price was hit and I had to produce. Because I did not own the options, I was forced to buy them at a preset, high market price, even though the market was dropping like a ton of bricks.

If I had been able to hold onto my long puts for one more week, I would have made millions of dollars. But, the market did not wait for me. I was a day late and a thousand puts short. On Black Monday, with the market falling out of bed, all I could do was wring my hands and suffer. As the day progressed, I was literally throwing up in the trash can. That day, I experienced anguish that I never want to feel again.

THE AFTERMATH

I wish that I could say that on Tuesday, October 20, all was well for me, but that was not the case. I went to the office as usual, but the atmosphere in the office was far from usual. Our office was in turmoil. Throughout the financial industry there was total panic. Clients wanted to be assured that things were not so bad, but we could not offer that assurance. No one knew what that day or even the next day or week would bring. Everyone was asking questions. How much had been lost? Were we solvent? Were the markets going to continue to fall? Was the nation going to experience another depression like the one suffered in 1929?

Some analysts compared Black Monday of 1987 with Black Monday of 1929. Did the crash of 1929 cause the Great Depression? Was the world going to experience years of financial suffering? It depended on whom you read. Some writers predicted the worst while others framed the crash as nothing more than a correction. At any rate, a heavy sense of apprehension hovered over the financial industry. For a time, a sense of doom and dread engulfed the nation and the world.

Computer systems lacked the sophistication of the systems of today. So much information had been thrown at them so quickly that these titans of technology were not able to keep up and process the data. Over 600 million shares had traded hands on Black Monday alone. How bad was it? No one seemed to know. Wall Street firms feared the extent of their exposure. We were in quicksand and did not know what to do or where to begin to make sense of it. I remember selling some IBM shares and not knowing for days what my price was. It was clearly not the 2-second fill that we are accustomed to today.

The markets closed for a couple of days to evaluate the situation and to try to settle accounts. When the actual losses were calculated, it was an ugly sight. Those who refer to 1987 as a market correction always amuse me. Instantly, I know that they lack credibility. Black Monday was not a correction; it was a crash. On Monday, October 19, 1987, Wall Street experienced its greatest single-day loss to date. The loss dwarfed that of Black Monday in 1929. In 1929, the loss was only a little over 12 percent, but in 1987, the loss was over 22 percent. It was almost double. A correction? I don’t think so. I, like many, many others, lost everything. I had to start over.

The financial loss that I suffered was catastrophic. However, believe it or not, that was not my biggest problem. My biggest problem was my loss of self confidence. I questioned my experience and my ability to trade. How could I not have seen what was coming? How did I let this happen to me? Was I to blame for the suffering of my family, my clients, and me? Should I have done things differently? What should and could I do now?

Over the next few weeks and months, I had to undergo a lot of soul searching. I questioned the basis and the rationale of the financial institutions that had been my source of livelihood for years. And, I questioned whether or not I had foolishly selected a profession in which years of work and labor could vanish in a single day.

Survive and Persist

As I thought about my plight, I remembered the struggles I had when I tried out for my high school football team. My nemesis was a big brute named Danny. At every practice, I had to face Danny. When we collided, my bones rattled and my brains shook. He must have weighed well over 200 pounds and he was as solid as a slab of granite. I was a freshman in high school hoping to make the team, and Danny, a soon to be all-state lineman, had made it his goal in life to peal my face, one layer at a time. Day after day, Danny tackled me—violently exhibiting his superior gridiron skills. When I saw that mountain coming at me, I had one thought: survive the blow. I braced for the impact. After I survived, I had another thought: flee. Quit. Forget about playing football. It is just too hard, and I don’t need the hassle. Danny was deadly.

I tried to convince my Dad to see it my way. I told him that I should quit. I explained to him how hard it was. I told him how big this other guy was and how humiliated I felt to be pulverized by him day after day. I promised to study more, work harder, be a better human being, but Dad would have none of it. “Don’t start something that you’re not going to finish. You wanted to join the football team. You went out for it and now you are going to finish it. You will not be a quitter.” So day after day I faced the mountain.

When tryouts ended, no one was more surprised than I was that I had made the team. I was not an all-star and I took my turn warming the bench, but I was on the team. Persistence had paid off and I wore the team uniform with pride.

On October 20, 1987, and for many, many days thereafter, I felt like that young high school freshman who was being battered by that mountain of a lineman. The air had been knocked out of me. I had to fight to survive. I wanted to quit trading, but I needed the money. I was a victim of the crash of 1987. That is the way I viewed myself. The market had victimized me. It had behaved in an irrational and inexplicable manner and it did so intentionally to hurt me. It was personal. Rationally, I knew that was not true, but I wanted to bla...

Table of contents

• John Wiley & Sons
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Acknowledgments
• Introduction
• CHAPTER 1 - The Crucible Black Monday
• CHAPTER 2 - Time Is Central
• CHAPTER 3 - Trading Is a Numbers Game
• CHAPTER 4 - Read the Tape
• CHAPTER 5 - There’s No Crying in Trading
• CHAPTER 6 - Riding the Rail
• CHAPTER 7 - Worry about Risk, the Rewards Will Come
• CHAPTER 8 - Respect the News
• CHAPTER 9 - Getting Down to Brass Tacks
• CHAPTER 10 - Preparation Pays
• CHAPTER 11 - A Study in Contrast
• CHAPTER 12 - Recap the Essentials
• CHAPTER 13 - An Afterthought for Consideration The Doctrine of Genius
• APPENDIX A - Glossary
• APPENDIX B - Getting Started
• APPENDIX C - Order Types
• APPENDIX D - Suggested Reading
• APPENDIX E - Helpful Websites
• Index