Chapter 1
Introduction: The Nature of Droughts
Living in Australia, a land of âdroughts and flooding rainsâ and the most drought-prone continent in the world, it is not surprising that, like many Australians, I have an acute awareness of the perils of drought. Drought comes with images of crops wilting, livestock being destroyed, dust storms, bushfires, dry farm dams, empty reservoirs, dying trees and drastic restrictions on water use. As a freshwater ecologist, I have become only too aware of the damaging and lasting effects of drought on freshwater systems. Projects planned and premised on the availability of sufficient water have been compromised, if not halted. Thus, drought has moved from being a matter of concern for me to becoming a hazard to research, and it has now grown to become a major research interest of mine. This interest has been heightened by the realization that of the two major flow-generated hazards to freshwater ecosystems â floods and droughts â our ecological understanding of floods is much more comprehensive and deeper than our understanding of droughts (Giller, 1996; Lake, 2000, 2003, 2007).
The literature on the ecology of drought and freshwater systems is limited in quantity in comparison with that on floods and other disturbances (e.g. pollution). It is also very scattered across different types of publications, is uneven in quality, and some of it is quite difficult to access (Lake et al., 2008). Following the international conference on the âRole of Drought in the Ecology of Aquatic Systemsâ in Albury, Australia in 2001 (Humphries & Baldwin, 2003), I read much of the literature on drought and freshwater ecosystems and produced an interim report (Lake, 2008). This present book is the culmination of this extended research effort.
Drought is a ubiquitous climatic hazard. It is a recurring climatic phenomenon and its frequency, duration, intensity, severity and spatial extent all vary with locality and with time at any one location. As a hazard, it is determined relative to the prevailing normal conditions of a locality. Thus, partly because of this variation, it has been difficult to find a universal definition of drought; indeed, âa universal definition is an unrealistic expectationâ (Wilhite, 2000). This lack of generality makes the effects of drought difficult to evaluate and compare among localities and regions across the world.
The numerous definitions of drought can be split into two forms: those that define it as a natural climatic phenomenon and those that define it as a hazard to human activities (especially agriculture). The latter type of definition is understandably much more common. Examples of drought definitions focused on human impacts include:
- âa deficiency of rainfall from expected or normal that, when extended over a season or longer period of time is insufficient to meet the demands of human activitiesâ (Tannehill, 1947);
- âdrought is a persistent and abnormal moisture deficiency having adverse impacts on vegetation, animals, or peopleâ (National Drought Policy Commission (USA), 2000);
- âa drought is a prolonged, abnormally dry period when there is not enough water for usersâ normal needs' (Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Government, 2006).
This type of definition leads to an imprecise determination of drought, as it depends on the nature of human activities that are judged to be impaired by drought. However, it is nevertheless perfectly understandable, as the declaration of drought at a locality can have serious economic and social implications.
In looking at the effects of drought on freshwater ecosystems, it is above all necessary to define drought as a natural phenomenon, whilst recognizing the many interactions between human activities and drought. Following Druyan (1996b), drought can be defined as âan extended period â a season, a year or several years â of deficient rainfall relative to the statistical multiyear mean for a regionâ. It should be noted that ârainfallâ is usually the major form of precipitation, but other forms such as snow, and even fog, can be important. This definition relies on the availability of lengthy data sets (25â30 years) to determine the âmultiyear meanâ. Furthermore, the determination of the âmultiyear meanâ may be incorrect when there is a long-term trend in the climate â a move away from the assumption of no significant change in long-term mean values or stationarity (Milly et al., 2008).
In this work, I will be regarding drought as a phenomenon affecting ecosystems and their constituents rather than one affecting human activities. Defining drought this way must, however, recognize that human activities can either create conditions that increase the likelihood of drought or may exacerbate natural drought. For example, the clearing of vegetation may render land more prone to drought (Glantz, 1994), and extraction of water for human use from waterways can exacerbate the low flow conditions generated by natural drought (Bond et al., 2008). Thus, there will be many instances in which the drought affecting biota and ecosystems will be exacerbated by humanity's use of water and land.
Drought must be distinguished from aridity. Aridity occurs where it is normal for rainfall to be below a low threshold for a long and indeterminate duration, whereas drought occurs when rainfall is below a low threshold for a fixed duration (Coughlan, 1985). In arid areas, provided there is a good long-term rainfall record, it is possible to distinguish drought when it occurs in spite of the prevailing regime of low rainfall. Aridity in a region means that there is an overall negative water balance due to the potential evapotranspiration of water exceeding that supplied by precipitation, with precipitation being low, usually less than 20 cm per year (Druyan, 1996a) and highly variable. At some times in arid regions, precipitation may exceed potential evapotranspiration, but in the long run there is a continual deficit in precipitation. In drought, precipitation is less than potential evapotranspiration for an extended period, but not permanently. Again, the assumption of stationarity is challenged if extended droughts are part of the onset of a drying phase, a climate change or a move toward aridity.
As stressed in Wilhite (2000) and Wilhite et al. (2007), drought is a very complex phenomenon and it remains a poorly understood climatic hazard. (2005) Bryant (2005) ranked 31 different natural hazards, ranging from drought to rockfalls, in terms of nine hazard characteristics: degree of severity; length of event; area extent; loss of life; economic loss; social effect; long-term impact; suddenness; and occurrence of associated hazards. Drought scored the most severe on all characteristics except for the last two, and it is the most severe natural hazard in terms of duration, spatial extent and impact.
Surprisingly, drought did not score as severe in terms of the occurrence of associated hazards. Droughts in many parts of the world, from North America to Indonesia, can be associated with severe and very extensive bushfires. In drier areas, severe dust storms, such as in the Great Plains of the USA in the 1930s (Worster, 1979) or in eastern Australia, are produced during drought. Most other natural hazards are of short duration, of limited spatial extent, and are due to an excess of forces (e.g. cyclones) or of material (e.g. floods). However, drought is an unusual hazard as it is generated by a deficit; out of 31 different types of natural hazard, it only shares this critical characteristic with subsidence (Bryant, 2005).
1.1 The social and economic damage of drought
The range of impacts of drought on human economic and social activities is immense. This is perfectly understandable, as water is essential for life and for the sustainable operation of natural and human-dominated ecosystems, both aquatic and terrestrial. Drought can reduce agricultural production, with direct losses of both crops and livestock, as well as causing the cessation of both cultivation and livestock population maintenance. Land may be lost to future production by dust storms, loss of vegetation and erosion. Forest production may be damaged both by severe water stress to trees and by severe and extensive bushfires. Water restrictions may reduce energy production (e.g. hydro-electricity), industrial production and the availability of clean water for human consumption. Water loss in rivers may even limit water transport; for example, in the 1987â1988 drought in the USA, barge traffic on the Mississippi river was limited by the low depths of the channel (Riebsame et al., 1991). Economic losses can be incurred across a range of activities from agricultural and industrial to tourism and recreation. In addition, costs during drought may rise sharply, as reflected in food prices, water prices for industry, agriculture and human consumption, and in costs for drought relief to farmers and rural communities.
Drought is a natural hazard that humans cannot modify meteorologically. However, with forethought it may be possible to modify some of its impacts on natural ecosystems and on human society. Drought âhas both a natural and social dimensionâ (Wilhite & Buchanan-Smith, 2005); the human responses to deal with drought may vary from being hasty and reactive to being well-planned and proactive.
These responses are encompassed in the concept of vulnerability. The four essential components of vulnerability to drought are: capacity to predict drought; effective monitoring of drought with the capacity to provide early warning of drought attributes (e.g. extent, severity); effective mitigation and preparedness; and a readiness in society for the need to have a coordinated strategy to deal with drought. Various societies in different regions have different levels of vulnerability to drought, and thus there are âdrought-vulnerableâ and âdrought-resilientâ societies (Wilhite & Buchanan-Smith, 2005). While there are many drought-vulnerable societies, there are very few examples of drought-resilient societies, though in some regions, such as the USA and Australia, resilience at the societal level is improving (Wilhite, 2003; Wilhite et al., 2007).
In the south-west of what is now the USA, the Anasazi people in the Four Corners region developed a complex society, starting about 650 AD, based on the cultivation of maize supported by extensive and intricate systems of water harvesting, that lasted until the 13th century (Diamond, 2005; Benson et al., 2007). Two severe and lengthy droughts (megadroughts â droughts lasting longer than 10 years: Woodhouse & Overpeck, 1998) in the middle 12th and late 13th centuries greatly reduced maize yields, causing the abandonment of settlements (Diamond, 2005; Benson et al., 2006, 2007). To the hazard of extended drought, Anasazi society had a high vulnerability and a very low resilience â little capacity to recover.
In drought-vulnerable societies, drought may be linked with famine, disease and social upheaval â both now, as in the Sahel region of Africa (Dai et al., 2004a), and in the past. In the case of colonial India, the two severe droughts of 1876â1879 and 1896â1902 are estimated to have killed 12.2 to 29.3 million people, and in China the death toll was estimated to be 19.5â30 million people (Davis, 2001). Indeed, the failure of the monsoon in 1876â79 that caused drought over much of Asia caused a famine that âis the worst ever to afflict the human species. The death toll cannot be ascertained, but certainly it exceeded 20 millionâ (Hidore, 1996).
The high death toll from the two late Victorian droughts in India was no doubt linked to the great increase in drought vulnerability in rural India due to the commodification of village agriculture by Britain. A switch to growing crops for export swept away traditional and local means of storage and support to contend with drought (Davis, 2001). Indeed, the catastrophic impacts of drought on societies high in drought vulnerability and low in preparedness in India and China at that time (Davis, 2001), and in the âDustbowlâ in the 1930s in the USA (Worster, 1979) can be seen as significant historical events that had major effects on the futures of the affected societies.
Economic losses, mainly through reduction of agricultural production, can be immense; droughts are costly. For example, the drought years of 1980 and 1988 in the USA are estimated to have cost $48.8 billion and $61.6 billion (2006 dollars) respectively (Riebsame et al., 1991; Cook et al., 2007), while the very severe drought of 2002â03 in Australia (Nicholls, 2004) is estimated to have cost $A7.4 billion in lost agricultural production (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2004).
As droughts usually cover a large spatial extent and are invariably of considerable duration, they slowly produce ecological, economic and social deficiencies. These deficiencies, such as high mortality of biota (plant and animal, natural and domestic) and the poor condition and health of organisms, including humans, do not allow a rapid recovery once a drought breaks; there may be a long lag in recovery.
In human societies, the damaging social and economic effects can persist for a long time. For example, if drought gives rise to famine, children may become seriously malnourished and the effects of malnutrition on health and mental well-being may be lifelong (Bryant, 2005). The replenishment of seed for crops and of livestock numbers from remnant survivors are also lengthy and costly processes. Moreover fire, dust storms and overgrazing may severely damage pastures and croplands and even prevent full recovery (Bryant, 2005).
1.2 Major characteristics of drought
As suggested by Tannehill (1947), when he labelled droughts âcreeping disastersâ, it can be difficult to detect the beginning of a drought, as the deficiency of moisture in a region takes time to emerge (e.g. Changnon, 1987). As drought is a form of disturbance that steadily builds in (2000) strength, Lake (2000, 2003) suggested that it constitutes a ramp type of disturbance, which steadily builds in severity with time. For the same reason, it can also be difficult to detect the end of a drought as it gradually fades away (inverse ramp). However, if the dro...