The contemporary world has reached a pivotal moment of escalating injustices and apocalyptic risks, but also of unprecedented opportunities. Mounting pressures of social and ecological problems are met by a confluence of intellectual trends that allow the questioning of entrenched assumptions and the unleashing of a forward-oriented sociological imagination. This monograph explores pertinent trends, alternative visions, and new directions for sociological research. The Introduction provides in its first part a brief sketch of the social, historical, and intellectual context of sociologyâs forward-turn and in its second part an overview of key arguments developed in the individual chapters. The diversity of theoretical approaches and regional expertise reflect the complexity of challenges and the multiplicity of future projects on a shared planet.
Opening Futures
Not long ago, during the 1990s, the Washington Consensus of neoliberal policies emerged so victorious from the Cold War that the âend of historyâ appeared as its mantra. In contrast, the current Zeitgeist, or âspirit of the timeâ, appears better captured by the notion of âcrisisâ. Yet, there is something inherently puzzling about this new crisis discourse (Schulz 2016c). A financial crisis has shaken much of the world, but instead of giving way to a new economic regime, the previously established neoliberal templates persist like zombies. Billions of dollars were mobilized almost overnight to rescue banks, but austerity was imposed on the many. Today, broad sectors of European populations worry about a ârefugee crisisâ, while the refugees themselves worry about even more fundamental crises. For human livelihood on the planet, the specter of climate change has become ever harder to ignore and gives âcrisisâ yet another dimension of meaning. The many âmorbid symptomsâ of our time seem to fit Antonio Gramsciâs famous characterization of âcrisisâ as an âinterregnumâ in which âthe old is dying and the new cannot be bornâ. This raises the questions: What could then lead to the new? What role could sociology play in the inventing of the new?
The widespread lack of future imagination has been noted over the past few decades in a number of time-diagnoses by authors as diverse as Alvin Toffler, Norbert Elias, JĂźrgen Habermas, Claudio Lomnitz, and Slavoj Ĺ˝iĹžek. For example, the futurist Toffler argued in his famous Future Shock (1970) that âChange is avalanching upon our heads and most people are grotesquely unprepared to cope with it.â Historical sociologist Elias (1987) came to similar conclusions within a yet longer time-frame when he wrote: âToday we have basically lost the ability to think of a future. Most people do not want to go beyond their present â they do not like to see themselves as a link in the chain of generations.â Discussing political implications, critical theorist Habermas (1985) spoke of an âexhaustion of utopian energiesâ that hampered the âlegitimacy crisisâ of Western welfare-states. The anthropologist Lomnitz (2003) diagnosed in the Mexican context a âpresent saturationâ that âdisables constructive futures engagementsâ. The philosopher Ĺ˝iĹžek (2011) argued that the Western imagination is so curtailed that it needs no censorship, as its movies can show apocalyptic asteroid collisions but are unable to depict a future beyond capitalism.
Yet, futures thinking does take place; it is just not well distributed. Naomi Klein (2001) has prominently shown how elites use âshockâ during âcrisesâ to impose blueprints faster than civil societies can mount resistance. Now a question for sociology: How could this be turned around? What could make publics from the grassroots stronger, unleash their imaginative capacities, and lend them more efficacy? What does it take to democratize futures?
Before tackling this question, it is worthwhile to reflect on how academia and the social sciences relate to anticipative thinking. How do disciplines differ in taking a position vis-Ă -vis the future? For one, the prominent anthropologist Arjun Appadurai (2013) has recently castigated his discipline for neglecting the future. Appadurai criticized that âanthropology remains preoccupied with the logic of reproduction, the force of custom, the dynamics of memory, the persistence of habitus, the glacial movement of the everyday, and the cunning of tradition in the social life of even the most modern movements and communitiesâ.
Yet, would a similar verdict not apply to sociology too? Have sociologists neglected the future perhaps even more spectacularly or at least failed to address it in terms that are more explicit? In business schools, it is quite common to see course offerings on the future. Marketing research revolves around studies about the anticipation of consumer choices and trends. Some of the brightest students are being taught how to devise algorithms for fast-paced trading in financial derivatives, so that profits can be made from âfuturesâ, before anyone else even thinks about them. Yet, future courses are largely absent from the sociology curricula in most countries.
Such avoidance of the âfutureâ was not always the case. To the contrary, the classic founding figures of sociology were driven by their interest in the future. As religious beliefs in some future telos gave way to the positivist search for social laws during the disciplineâs formative period in Western Europe, sociologists in traditions from Auguste Comte to Emile Durkheim thought this kind of knowledge to be useful for managing or administrating society. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Karl Marx shared underlying assumptions when he pronounced the laws of history would be pointing to a necessary triumph of the oppressed, though he did recognize in his more empirical writings that there were no historical automatisms but plenty of maneuvering room for contingent action. Throughout his life, W.E.B. DuBois sought synergies between sociology and open political activism. Pioneering feminist sociologist Charlotte Perkins Gilman came to broad fame as author of a best-selling utopian novel, Herland (1979 [1915]), the story of an alternative world governed by women.
The belief in an open future has been understood as the hallmark of the modern consciousness of time. As the historian Reinhart Koselleck (2004 [1979]) noted, the âspace of experienceâ and the âhorizon of expectationâ are increasingly disassociated. This fundamental contingency opens the horizon of the possible for social and political creation. What is could have been different. The existing reality could have been differently shaped through non-determined human action, in more or less reflexive as well as in more or less conflictive or cooperative ways.
The striking absence of explicit âfutureâ engagements in the contemporary sociology of many countries can be seen as a by-product of a defensive strategy aimed at gaining respectability by emulating the supposedly rigorous methods of the âhard sciencesâ while avoiding the inherently unpredictable. However, the time seems now ripe to re-examine such premises in a broader way. There are at least four crucial intellectual trends...