Chapter 1
The Three Worlds of Prospectors, Settlers and Pioneers
Our senses tell us that we all live in one world, and – true enough – we share one planet. But our senses mislead us if we conclude that we all experience the same reality, and that fundamentally, we all see the world in the same way. If we did, then ‘what worked’ for one could work for all, and we’d just need to provide enough facts or education, or the same type of inducements to resolve any argument, or end any conflict.
In reality, as far as communication and motivation are concerned, we have not one world but three. These three worlds are hidden from us because they are not physical but psychological: yet what divides them are our most deeply held beliefs about what is ‘really important’. For Settlers, the deep forces draw people to seek out safety, security, identity and belonging. For Prospectors, it is the yearning for success, the search for esteem of others, and self-esteem, while for Pioneers, the constant drive is for new ideas, the quest for connections waiting to be made, and living a life based on ethics.
We can all recognize these forces as ideas, but people in the three worlds feel them very differently, and so deeply that we are rarely conscious of them ourselves. Once upon a time these worlds were known only as theories but today it is possible to lay them bare, thanks to a host of measurements which cut through the confused fog of opinions and attitudes and reveal a hidden template which underlies human behaviours, from the level of the individual, through clubs and communities, up to the dynamics of nation states.
The journey this book takes you on will make those worlds visible. If you want to run a business or a campaign, engage in politics or understand current affairs, be ‘persuasive’, influence people, win friends or simply understand what is going on in the world, it will help to understand these three very different worlds, and what makes them tick.
This book is about what shapes these worlds, and how, although we look out through them, we don’t normally see them. The different motivational forces of these worlds exert consistent pulls on our behaviour, and the choices that we make. These forces may pull people from different worlds apart, leading to some activities dominated by just one world, be it Settler, Prospector, or Pioneer. When politicised and polarised, such ‘values clashes’ can become very nasty.
In other cases, people from two or three worlds may do the same thing, yet for fundamentally different reasons. Because we tend to adjust our opinions to fit with our behaviours, this can lead to disagreement about why something should be done, even when there is agreement that it should be done.
Either way, when the forces underlying the worlds of Prospectors, Settlers or Pioneers lead them to clash, or to disagree over ‘the reasons why’, it can cause a lot of misunderstanding, puzzlement and frustration, even conflict. This happens at any scale from the individual, through to groups, right up to countries.
When an offer or activity or idea is in tune with the underlying forces, it not only ‘makes sense’ but it ‘feels right’. When these deep-seated drivers collide, we can see that others are fundamentally wrong, on the basis of ‘common sense’. That is, on our version of ‘common sense’.
Are we really prey to invisible unconscious forces over which we have no control? What an awful thought. Isn’t this the opposite of what we were taught at school, when we are told about the importance of forming political views, and growing up making sensible choices, about weighing up options, gathering the facts and deciding for ourselves what to do as rational independent human beings in everything from sex to social issues and shopping?
Yes, it is pretty much the opposite – and there’s a very good case for saying we should all be educated about how human minds really work because if we remain blind to such influences we can be more easily exploited by others, more prone to frustration, and less happy.
Professor George Lakoff made just such a call – for a ‘New Enlightenment’ – in his book The Political Mindi. Lakoff studies how ‘framing’ influences the way we perceive options, and how ‘frames’ act as unconscious mental boxes or metaphors which can easily be used to manipulate the outcomes of media or political debates. It is called ‘reflexive’ thinking because, like a knee-jerk reflex, it happens but we only consciously think about it after it’s happened. ‘Reflective’ thinking, which concerns analysis and synthesis, philosophy and weighing up facts and figures and arguments, is what we are told from school onwards is the ‘right’ and ‘objective’ way to think, superior to ‘mindless emotion’.
In the best-selling Influence – The Psychology of Persuasionii, Robert Cialdini explored another area of reflexive thinking – the ‘rules of thumb’ that influence behaviour, known as ‘heuristics’. The Consistency Effect is one of these – the way we adjust our opinions to fit with what we actually do. We do this because it would be uncomfortable to have an opinion at odds with our actions. It’s why you mostly can’t change behaviours by changing opinions, and why you can’t understand motivation from opinion polling.
Another heuristic is ‘Liking’, the well known effect in which if we like someone, for example if they are made to look more attractive, we are more likely to treat them well, whether it means rewarding them with our vote, giving them better treatment or service, or agreeing with them after hearing a debate.
Other heuristics include Effort, Exchange and Social Proof. These are used regularly in sales and marketing and, increasingly, by social marketers, political strategists and campaigners. The Effort heuristic simply says that we value something more if we have invested effort in it, than if the same thing was acquired with no effort. This may be seen as ‘common sense’ but is clearly not ‘rational’ in a utilitarian economic sense. There is no rational reason why the £5 you found in the street is less valuable than £5 for which you worked hard but there are of course emotional reasons. ‘Exchange’ is the reason why some charities make you a small gift, such as an unsolicited free pen in a direct mail envelope, when asking for your money. The reflex of ‘giving if you receive’ is deeply embedded.
Social Proof pops up all over the place. It can be a major problem with emergency planning. When a siren or fire alarm goes off, people tend not to respond immediately but first to check to see if it is a real alarm, if it is an immediate threat and if it applies to them personally. The trouble is they do this not by following rationally set rules but by looking to see what others are doing. If everyone is doing the same thing, they may wrongly conclude that there is no threat and ignore the alarm. Similarly, when hearing there may be a flood, people often go to the riverbank or floodwall to assess the risk, copying others. So when the levee breaks, they may all be standing in the worst possible place. We could go on – there are many more ‘heuristics’.
So many unconscious reflexive influences such as framing and heuristics dominate our lives that we hardly make any ‘reflective’ thought-through decisions free from their influence.
Yet each frame is a one-off and heuristics are just rules of thumb, and are right ‘on average’, that is, right more often than they are wrong. If you assume all people are the same, then using heuristics is likely to help get you what you want. But in reality people are not all the same, and although every person is unique, we are all more similar to some people than others. People in the three worlds of Settlers, Prospectors and Pioneers are profoundly and consistently similar to each other, yet different between the worlds. For example, some ‘heuristics’ will work much more strongly in one of these worlds than in another, and some frames will come more naturally in one than another. The drivers or ‘values’ behind these worlds are another significant source of unconscious, ‘reflexive’ thinking which makes us do things not just because we decide to but because we must.
There are plenty of other versions of ‘three worlds’. The Norse creation myth featured the realms of the gods, the underworld and Middle Earth where we live, later made famous for new audiences in Tolkein’s Lord of the Rings. As well as this physical world, Christians have heaven and hell and some may believe they are both real places, although heaven and hell have so far resisted all attempts to show they exist. Then there are the three worlds of Hinduism, which includes the physical, the astral planes and the world of the great shining beings.
Philosopher Karl Popper invented three worlds as logical mental constructs in order to explain an understanding of reality. During the Cold War, western political thinkers and Mao Zedong had different versions of the First World, Second World and Third World based on superpowers, their allies and others.
The last of these is at least based on real things, albeit measured in only a few rather crude ways – the military and economic power of nations. Most of these other worlds though are simply concepts.
In contrast, the three worlds of Settlers, Prospectors and Pioneers can be measured by studying people, mainly by asking them a lot of questions. The worlds have three different sets of factors that are important and held to be true, or three types of ‘common sense’. At any one stage in our lives we occupy just one of those worlds, and the requirements or ‘rules’ of that world determine how we live our lives.
The one we are all born into is the Settler World, and there we may stay, unless we fully satisfy some fundamental needs. If we do, we become Prospectors, and if we satisfy another set of needs, we become Pioneers. As it turns out, it is possible to go from being a Prospector to a Settler, but not from a Pioneer to a Prospector: more of that later.
While we all have a close encounter with all three worlds every day, much about them is as alien to the others as if we really were ‘from a different planet’. So we tend to choose our friends and spend our time with others like us. It’s easier to get along that way.
Many social conflicts arise where the different logics of these worlds lead to ‘values wars’ – over how to deal with issues such as climate change, education, law and order or social problems for example. Preferences for hobbies and past-times, politics, brands and even the sense of right and wrong vary dramatically across these worlds.
So Settlers, Prospectors and Pioneers can often be found doing different things. For instance they all shop but while for Pioneers and Settlers it is mostly out of necessity, for Prospectors shopping is a social event which is almost an end in itself. It is a tailor made opportunity to acquire and display the symbols of success: the right bag, the right stuff, the best and the better. By trial and error and sometimes through planning, shopping malls are tuned to meet the unconscious needs of Prospectors. Plenty of mirrors for example, so you can see how great you look with that latest bag or gadget. This appeals to Prospectors much more than to the others.
Equally, you are more likely to find Settlers keeping up traditions or rallying to The Flag, while Pioneers will predominate in ‘alternatives’ and in ethical cause groups. When it comes to community organisations, Pioneers and Settlers tend to greatly out-number Prospectors.
You can also find them all doing the same thing but for different reasons. Take an example of fitting a solar panel on your roof. It might heat water or it might be the type that creates electricity from light – it doesn’t matter. In the 1980s and 1990s in a country like the UK, solar panels were peculiar, fringe technology. Just about the only people putting solar on their roofs were committed environmentalists motivated by a desire to take personal action against the threat of climate change. As we will see later, these activists were almost all Pioneers. A belief that to make the world a better place you have to be a better person, a willingness to engage in actions that others might think odd, a readiness to innovate and embrace change, and a sense that you can change the world by what you do yourself are all characteristics of the Pioneers much more (for example ten or one hundred times more) than they are of Settlers or Prospectors.
Although it’s still mostly a ‘Pioneer market’, today Settlers and Prospectors may also fit solar panels on their roofs. So what has happened? Broadly speaking, two different things. First, energy prices have gone up – and we have all been bombarded with messages about energy insecurity and the risk – indeed the inevitability – that oil supplies will run out. Settlers are fine-tuned to look out for risks and although they have a very low sense of self-agency (that is they tend to believe the world changes them, not that they can change the world), fitting solar panels promises some degree of energy independence. It makes your home a bit more like your castle. In America some of the same driving force leads people to adopt a ‘survivalist’ lifestyle.
Second, the whole idea of a ‘green lifestyle’ has increasingly featured in home décor and design magazines, on TV programmes such as the UK Channel 4’s Grand Designs, and in other communication channels which follow fashions. Gradually, solar energy has become more ‘fashionable’....