The Silver Lining of Project Uncertainties

Ting Gao, Thomas G. Lechler, PMP, PMI-RMP

• Publisher: Project Management Institute
• Year: 2013
• Print ISBN:
  9781628250329
• eBook ISBN:
  9781628251197
• Topic: Business
• Subtopic: Decision Making
• Index: Business

Turn Project Uncertainties into Opportunities for SuccessAre you prepared to navigate the unpredictable nature of project management? The Silver Lining of Project Uncertainties provides a practical guide to transforming project uncertainties into valuable opportunities. This insightful resource helps project managers, business leaders, and students understand how to differentiate risk from uncertainty and maximize project value.

• Master the art of uncertainty management and risk assessment.
• Identify and exploit hidden opportunities within project uncertainties.
• Enhance stakeholder engagement and drive project success.

Discover how to leverage strategic thinking and business acumen to turn potential setbacks into pathways for innovation and value creation. This is a must-read for anyone seeking to thrive in today's dynamic project environments.

Case Study Results

In this section we analyze the collected data from the 41 case studies in detail and seek to find answers for the research questions raised.

The Nature and Sources of Project Uncertainties

To identify uncertain situations in projects, the interviewees were asked to think about situations in their project that surprised them. The situations related to uncertainties during project implementation vary widely across the 41 cases. In general, we classified the identified sources into six categories (see Table 3).

The most frequent category of project uncertainties is related to a project's stakeholders. About 38% of the identified uncertainty scenarios are related to specific characteristics or activities of stakeholders. Two less frequent categories of uncertainties are linked to the organizational and the external contexts in which projects are implemented. Specific project characteristics and malmanagement are the least frequent events related to uncertainties. In particular, malmanagement was a category of uncertainty that was surprising. In these cases uncertainties were caused by improper management procedures that neglected common project management standards.

The different uncertainty categories are discussed in detail in the following section.

Table 3: Identified Sources of Uncertainties

Uncertainty Categories	Uncertainty Sources	Frequencies
Stakeholder uncertainty	Inexperience, change, contracts	17
Organizational uncertainty	Mergers and acquisitions, politics, unknown legacy system	10
Technological uncertainty	Technical issues, tight specifications	8
Contextual turbulences	Legal, market	6
Project characteristics	Unknown complexity	2
Malmanagement	Self-induced uncertainty, false assumptions	4

Stakeholders as a source of project uncertainties

Stakeholders represent a main source of project uncertainty. In 17 out of the 41 cases, stakeholders induced uncertainties into a project's implementation (see Table 4). They elicit uncertainties in many ways. The most frequent sources for uncertainties are related to the capabilities of different stakeholder groups, behaviors of stakeholders, or unexpected changes of key stakeholders.

The many different stakeholder-related reasons for project uncertainties also demonstrate the complex nature of this category and pose significant challenges for project management during project implementation. The following cases describe in more detail the stakeholder issues identified in the study.

Specific behaviors of key stakeholders, such as opposition and requirement changes, led to project uncertainties in our cases. The following three cases demonstrate how the behaviors of stakeholders cause project uncertainties. In particular, change requests are frequent causes for project uncertainties. In one case we could even identify opposition by a key stakeholder group that led to significant delays and major project uncertainties.

Table 4: Stakeholder-Related Sources of Uncertainties

Uncertainty Sources	Cases
Customer-induced changes/Contracts/Diverse needs	Case 06, Case 23, Case 37
Rejection from clients	Case 31
Requirements changed by project owner	Case 39
Opposition from external stakeholders	Case 40
Inability of contractor or vendor	Case 07, Case 10, Case 30
Inexperienced project manager	Case 17, Case 26
Inexperienced subcontractor	Case 18
Contractor-client relations	Case 15, Case 21
Change of key stakeholders	Case 27, Case 33
Unknown project ownership	Case 01

Case 40

Project Mission: The design and construction of several sports fields and parking lots at a municipal park.

It was planned as a 60-day project; however, after 9.5 years, the political processes involved have not permitted the project to be completed to date. Political opposition from a special interest group was triggered when the excavation was started. The opposition caused uncertainty as to the scope and schedule of the project.

Case 06

Project Mission: Design and deliver new locomotives to enhance the state's railroad capability.

In this case the customer had accepted responsibility for procuring the spare parts as specified in the contract. When the customer failed to do so, the company had to identify alternative options for securing these parts. Customer-induced uncertainty created a change in the implementation phase.

Case 39

Project Mission: Provide data controls and content spending controls for usage calls.

The initial requirements were changed by the owner, who became actively involved in the project three months after project start. This situation led to significant budget and schedule uncertainties.

Case 06 is a representation of the classical situation of customer or client-induced changes, while Case 39 is interesting because the changes were requested by the project's owner. The owner was not in place when the project started, but when they got involved they changed the initial requirements in order to simplify the original six features down to one.

Capabilities of stakeholders play a major role in project uncertainties. In more than 20% of the cases, uncertainties were caused by the misjudgment or lack of capabilities of key stakeholders. Inability or inexperience of contractors or subcontractors leads to uncertain project situations. It seems that contractors are often selected on criteria other than their capabilities and capacities. The following two cases are good examples of this kind of situation.

Case 07

Project Mission: Public park improvements in order to increase usage and attract boaters and fishermen from other parts of the area.

Due to bankruptcy, the general contractor selected in the original bidding process was unable to get bonded as required to work on the public project. This led to the need to find another general contractor, mainly causing schedule uncertainties.

Case 18

Project Mission: Provide flight-qualified electronic components to a customer.

The inexperience of a subcontractor was one source of uncertainty. The initial upfront assumptions made by the subcontractor were not realistic. In addition, the reviews of drawings at the subcontractor's company were done without considering its capacity. For example, the lamination was expected to be straightforward but proved to be difficult to accomplish. The inexperience caused variation in processes to be greater than expected.

Inexperienced project managers are also a source for uncertainty, as demonstrated by the following two cases.

Case 17

Project Mission: Deploy and implement a new web-based software application that permits scientists to enter ideas and route them around the globe for review, to gain concept approvals.

The project manager did not have a sufficient understanding of the legal issues in the contracts. The load test plan was hurried and not effective. The push to short-cut the test plan caused errors for which the vendor did not compensate the company. Close management of the vendor's coding was missing. Because the contract did not permit back-charges to the vendor, the project manager used internal IT resources to help the vendor solve a problem that under contract should have belonged solely to the vendor.

Case 26

Project Mission: Find a more environmentally friendly paper alternative for containers used by a college food service.

The project manager did not consider the structure of the replacement container, which was later found to be unstable by someone else. Only heat, cold, and leakage properties were considered for the container design. Properties of stability were not considered.

Over the lifecycle of a project, it is not unusual for key stakeholders to change, as demonstrated in the following three cases.

Case 01

Project Mission: Enhance intermodal transportation security of a specific port.

This project was originally scoped to provide a demonstration of what could be done to enhance security of a port. The supporting and funding U.S. Senator retired while the project proposal development was under way.

Case 27

Project Mission: Transfer funds between participants in a syndicate.

The first project manager was an external consultant. When the initial project manag...

Table of contents

• Cover Page
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Table of Contents
• List of Tables and Figures
• Acknowledgements
• Introduction
• Conceptual Foundation for the Case Study Approach
• Research Methodology
• Case Study Results
• Implications for Project Management Research
• Implications for Project Management Education
• Implications for Project Management Practice
• Limitations and Outlook
• References
• Appendix