I believe that I am going to be late to my class, and that causes me to run on a slippery sidewalk, lose my footing, and fall down, whereupon I find myself flat on my back looking up at the birds in the tree above me. I thereby believe that there are birds in the tree.
(Pollock and Cruz 1999, p. 36.)
Seeing and Hurting
Suddenly seeing Sylvia, I form the belief that I see her; as a result, I become rattled and drop my cup of tea, scalding my leg. I then form the belief that my leg hurts.
(Plantinga 1993, p. 69, fn. 8.)
In the first case, my belief that I am late causes my belief that there are birds in the tree, but intuitively I donât hold the latter belief on the basis of the former. In the second case, my belief that I see Sylvia causes my belief that my leg hurts, but intuitively the latter belief is not based on the former.
Itâs natural to think that the deviancy in causation has to do with how the causal path proceeds. In both cases, the causation is not direct but mediated through several stages of causation. And in both cases, the causal path involves elements that are entirely external to the subjectâs cognitive system (running, losing footing, rattling, etc.). This may suggest that deviant causation happens when the causation is not direct, or when the causal path doesnât happen entirely within oneâs cognitive system (see Korcz 2000, p. 540 for the latter suggestion).
Both suggestions are problematic. They are simply too strong, given that the relevant conditions also obtain in intuitively non-deviant causation. Suppose I infer âpâ from âp and q,â which is turn inferred from âp and q and r.â Then my belief p is intuitively based on my belief âp and q and r,â even though the causation is not direct, and even though the causation might involve purely physical activities happening in my brain, elements that are outside of my cognitive system: my belief âp and qâ might first cause some neurons firing, which in turn causes my belief p.
The thought that deviant causation must have to do with how the causal path proceeds also underlies the âcausal-manifestation theoryâ of basing recently proposed by Turri (2011, p. 393). According to the theory, deviant causation leading to your belief is causation that doesnât manifest your cognitive disposition. And Turri takes a cognitive disposition to be a habit to form doxastic attitudes in certain circumstances, such as habitually taking experience at face value, habitually trusting testimony of others, or habitually reasoning in certain patterns. (In what follows, I will use âcognitive dispositionâ and âcognitive habitâ interchangeably; itâs in line with Turriâs [2011, p. 391] own usage.)
This theory seems able to explain why the causation is deviant in Late and Birds and in Seeing and Hurting. In both cases, the causation is entirely accidental. It doesnât manifest my cognitive habits: I simply donât have the habit of believing that there are birds when I believe that I am late or the habit of believing that my leg hurts when I see Sylvia.
However, the causal-manifestation theory still doesnât get to the heart of the problem. Consider the following variant of Late and Birds.
Late and Running
Joe believes that he is late for class. This causes him to run, which causes him to believe that he is running. And the causation chain is by no means accidental: He has a cognitive disposition to believe that he is running when he believes that he is late for class. This is because he has a habit to run when he believes that he is late for class, and he has a habit to believe that he is running when he is in fact running.
In this case, Joeâs belief that he is running is intuitively not based on his belief that he is late for class, even though the causation between the two beliefs is not accidental but is a manifestation of his cognitive disposition. (You might doubt whether Joeâs disposition to believe that he is running when he believes that he is late for class counts as a âcognitiveâ disposition. But according to Turri, a cognitive disposition is just a habit to form beliefs in certain patterns, and by stipulation Joe does have a habit to form beliefs in the relevant patternâhe would believe that he is running whenever he believes that he is late for class. Or perhaps Turri will object that Joeâs disposition is not a cognitive one because itâs mediated through Joeâs disposition of running, a disposition outside of Joeâs cognitive system. But this objection will rule out too much. As I have explained earlier, mediation through purely physical activities in oneâs brain can be involved in normal, non-deviant causation.) So, whether an instance of causation leading to a belief is deviant doesnât seem to depend on whether the causation is accidental or is a manifestation of cognitive dispositions.4