1 What does the future hold for international courts?
Avidan Kent, Nikos Skoutaris and Jamie Trinidad
The twentieth century was the golden age of international law. Treaties and international organisations proliferated at an unprecedented rate, and many courts and tribunals were established to facilitate the smooth operation of this new structure of international relations. The network of international courts and tribunals (ICs) that exists today is an important feature of our global society. It serves as an alternative to other forms of dispute settlement, including gunboat diplomacy and even wars. Its emergence is widely regarded as a positive development; it is used by states and its authority is widely accepted. As former International Court of Justice (ICJ) president Gilbert Guillaume once wrote: âSome decades ago the slogan was âMake love, not warâ. It could now be âGo to court, not to warâ.â1
A critical juncture?
In her book, The New Terrain of International Law, Karen Alter identifies three âcritical juncturesâ that have shaped the development of the ICs universe: the Hague Peace Conference; the end of World War II/the âeruptionâ of the Cold War; and the end of the Cold War.2 The post-Hague events led inter alia to the establishment of the Permanent Court of Arbitration and the later Permanent Court of International Justice. The political aftermath of World War II led to the establishment of tribunals such as the ICJ, European Court of Justice (ECJ), Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACtHR), European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Tradeâs (GATT) dispute settlement system. The end of the Cold War led inter alia to the rise in prominence of the Bretton Woods Institutions (accompanied by the establishment of numerous trade and investment tribunals), and an increased international demand for accountability following atrocities in places such as Africa and the Balkans resulted in the establishment of international criminal tribunals.3
In her contribution to this volume, Alter claims that we are currently in the midst of yet another âcritical junctureâ. While previous âjuncturesâ resulted in the proliferation of international courts and were motivated by statesâ willingness to entrust at least a portion of their sovereignty to ICs, the current âjunctureâ is essentially different. Alter defines it as a systemic and broad âshared loss of faith in the old orderâ,4 focused mostly on âdismantling what existsâ.5 âThe dismantling nature of the current critical junctureâ, she explains, âhas put into question the entire international liberal order, which most international courts are part of.â6
We broadly share Alterâs assessment of the disruptive potential of current developments for the future of ICs and it seems timely to reflect on some of the challenges that ICs currently face and are likely to face in the years ahead.
We have organised these challenges under three loose headings: regional, institutional and procedural. Our purpose in doing so was to span the perspective from the general to the specific, offering readers a range of birdâs eye and wormâs eye views on the future of ICs. We do not attach special significance to these headings â they are a mere organisational device and few, if any of the essays in this volume fall squarely under one heading or another.
Regional challenges
A key consideration in editing this volume was ensuring, as far as possible, that diverse voices from around the world were represented. While the possible shift away from an âinternational liberal orderâ â which Alter examines by reference to developments in the United States, Poland, Hungary and post-Brexit-referendum UK â may be viewed with trepidation in some quarters, in others it could be viewed with indifference or even as a positive opportunity.
So-called ânewâ and rising non-Western powers are increasingly involved in international adjudicatory processes and their actions are shaping the current âcritical junctureâ in important ways. Nanying Tao describes in this context the transformation of Chinaâs attitude towards ICs; from a traditional position of hostility to that of an active litigant.7 Tao defines Chinaâs current attitude towards ICs as a âlove-hateâ relationship. On the one hand, China has embraced the use of economic tribunals to advance its economic agendas; it is now one of the most active users of the World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute settlement system and its approach towards the Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) has been favourable. On the other hand, Tao explains, when it comes to issues of sovereignty and territory, China is still haunted by the view that âinternational adjudication essentially serves Western imperialistic interestsâ; it is a view that underpins its dismissive attitude towards the South China Sea Arbitration (as manifested in Chinaâs âfour noesâ strategy: âno acceptance, no participation, no recognition and no implementationâ).8
China is not the only rising giant that has shown ambivalence towards international adjudicative processes. Anand and Singh explain how Indiaâs insistence on a traditional, state-centric approach towards ICs has resulted in a rejection of certain progressive developments, notably regarding the participation of non-state actors, whether as amici curiae (in the WTO) or as litigants (ISDS).9 India, the authors point out, is also generally hostile to developments which are perceived as increasing the reach of ICs into matters touching on sovereignty. It therefore insists, for instance, on the exhaustion of local remedies in its Model Bilateral Investment Treaties (BIT) (âeven as the domestic judicial system in India already crumbles under the backlog of casesâ10), and it rejects altogether any prospect of acceding to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court.
Brexit also denotes the effort of a state to distance itself from a highly integrated international legal order. Indeed, the prime minister Theresa May has declared that the ambition of the UK is to take back control of its laws by leaving the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice, among other things. Nikos Skoutaris, in his contribution to this volume,11 shows that this may be a much more difficult exercise than proponents of Brexit might have anticipated. A close look at the UKâs Withdrawal Agreement, the EU Withdrawal Act and even the UKâs âChequersâ proposal for a future relationship with the EU indicates that the influence of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) on the UK legal order is likely to remain significant after Brexit.
Will ICs survive this critical juncture? Alter notes that she âdo[es] not actually think that the international law project, or most of the existing substantive international law, is itself in questionâ.12 âInternational lawâ, she believes, âwill endure,â due to its moral superiority, the fundamental values that it protects and the lack of an alternative.13 Other contributors to this volume seem more reluctant to accept the moral superiority of international law as a given and some explicitly link the âenduranceâ of international law with the willingness and ability of ICs to adapt their institutional practices.
Institutional challenges
Based on an empirical study of statesâ declarations, Zuzanna Godzimirska explains that historically, ICs such as the WTOâs Appellate Body and the ICJ have âenjoy[ed] substantial levels of support among their Membersâ.14 She warns, however, that this state of affairs is rather fragile and even the actions of one state alone (referring to the United Statesâ attempts to effectively dismember the Appellate Body) could potentially jeopardise this delicate state of affairs.
The critique of Investor-State Arbitrations (ISA, or ISDS) is even more stark. The perception of this dispute settlement mechanism as biased towards wealthy Western investors, conducted in a secretive manner obscured from public scrutiny, has resulted in certain Latin-American states denouncing the ISA and withdrawing from the Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes between States and Nationals of Other States (ICSID Convention). Many other states are revising their investment agreements.
Nevertheless, Armand de Mestral and Lukas Vanhonnaeker predict that the ISA will not disappear â âthe weight of over 3200 BITs and RTAs with investment chapters will be too great to allow this.â15 In addition, the lack of a viable alternative supports this prognosis. Instead, these contributors argue, âthe most probable development of the international investment protection, including the ISA, is incremental change of both the substance and the procedure of the system.â16 One example of such change is the adoption of rules on transparency, such as those adopted under the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) or in a variety of ânew generationâ BITs. A more drastic change would be the arrival of the EUâs proposed international investment tribunal including an appellate level. Such a measure would, it is hoped, increase transparency, consistency and coherence of jurisprudence.
International criminal tribunals have also been subjected to stinging criticism, much of it reflecting North/South tensions. â[T]he field of international criminal justice is experiencing a time of change,â writes Nicholson;17 the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) are closing, a new generation of hybrid courts is emerging, and the International Criminal Court (ICC), perhaps the cornerstone of this system, is beginning to feel the weight of longstanding criticism reflected in the first withdrawals from the Rome Statute. The proliferation of hybrid courts is a countervailing trend, reflecting sentiment that forums like the ICTY and ICC are too remote from the communities most affected by their activities.
The ECtHR also faces a distinctive set of contemporary challenges, in part as a result of a resurgent populism in important Council of Europe (CoE) member states. In his chapter, Bill Bowring reflects on his decades of experience representing claimants against Turkey, Russia and the UK. On the one hand, Bowringâs account documents the story of tenacious individuals who have persevered in the face of long delays and other institutional hurdles; on the other hand, it is a warning of what could happen if powerful states, in the grip of populist and authoritarian politics, disengage from the system. The twin aims of dispensing effective justice to individuals while retaining the âbuy inâ of key states may not always be mutually compatible, which makes the challenge of ensuring that the ECtHR remains a relevant institution in the twenty-first century all the more formidable.
Amid all the turbulence, the reputation and authority of the ICJ has remained relatively solid. This is arguably due to the ICJâs traditionally narrow understanding of its own judicial remit. Philippe Sands has noted elsewhere in this respect: âThe Court had given a reasonably robust Opinion on the illegality of Israelâs Wall, [FN omitted] but in other cases it had skirted around the difficult issues that really mattered, in the face of political divisions.â18 Sands mentions the Courtâs Advisory Opinions regarding Kosovo and the legality of nuclear weapons as examples. One might also refer here to the Courtâs reluctance to deal with Russiaâs actions in Georgia and the Ukraine. In his contribution to this volume, Francesco Messineo rejects expectations such as those expressed by Sands (and others), according to which the Court should play the role of the âultimate authority speaking âeternal truthâ on all questions of internation...