Advances in ICT and the Likely Nature of Warfare

Kritika Roy

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2019
• ISBN:
  9781000759181
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Technologie et ingénierie
• Subtopic: Sciences et technologies militaires

This book focuses on how advances in ICT have brought about a sea change in the way people work, live and share while also making them vulnerable. These advances exhibit a fundamentally reformed global context for development that has not just been restricted to the civilian domain but has simultaneously impacted the military domain. The exponential pace of advances in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), robotics, big data, quantum computing or IoT (Internet of Things) pioneers a significantly different vision of work and society.

The current trends in warfighting present a very blurred picture of the future operating environment, but they give some shape to its likely direction. Military forces are trying to become much more flexible and have been adapting to these changes while emphasizing the importance of innovation and improvisation in order to counter challenges emanating from future scenarios. In this context, the book highlights the changing military strategies and tactics across nations vis-à-vis the hanging and emerging ICT technologies. It also highlights the importance of looking at present institutions, legal frameworks and principles as well as at the restraining factors inherent in realpolitik in order to understand if nation states are ready.

Please note: Taylor & Francis does not sell or distribute the Hardback in India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka

ONE

Introduction

Background

The advances in technology have been a critical determinant of a nation state’s quest for control and dominance in the international system. The ripple effect that these advances in technologies have had on military doctrine, organisation, strategy and tactics is tremendous. For instance, China’s invention of the stirrup in the fifth century immensely increased the efficiency of soldiers on horseback, and the Mongols invention of a “composite bow,” could easily be used while riding a horse thereby giving mobility to a static long-range weapon. Hence, technological innovations have had game-changing impact on warfare and military balance was compelling.

Even during the latter part of history, these advances in technologies were crucial in determining the outcome of many battles. For instance, the implementation of the bayonet dramatically altered infantry warfare, and the invention of the canon made the security provided by the castle or fortress obsolete and also rendered many weapons useless. Subsequently, the coming of machine guns, submarines, aircraft and the aircraft carriers all were considered to be the key game-changers of battlespace. However, a major breakthrough was achieved with the introduction of atomic bombs. To date, no other military weapons system have had such a profound influence on warfare as the atomic bomb. It clearly demonstrated its massive destructive capabilities when used on Hiroshima (August 6, 1945) and Nagasaki (August 9, 1945) where the after-affects are still being felt. In the early 1970s, the introduction of computers produced another most impactful revolution called the “Information Revolution,” that was centred on the concept that the dominant factor in war is the ability to collect, analyse, disseminate, and act upon battlefield information. In particular, the pervasive understanding among scholars that increasing dependence on information and communication systems supporting combat forces would give a distinct advantage to nation states in terms of situational awareness and knowledge of battlespace dynamics.

The coming of the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) age has triggered revolutionary changes in battlefield dynamics. The advances made in ICT have transformed the capabilities, functioning, operations and security perceptions of nation states. Emerging ICT technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI), robotics, cloud-based platforms and “Internet of Things” (IoT)—where more and more interconnected devices can interact, has been enhancing efficiencies of systems as well as also posing security risks. Use of digital currencies for transactions, and big data for predictive analytics are reshaping several services, with potentially substantial impact on systemic stability and security of Critical Information Infrastructure. The ICT revolution has, thus, resulted in the availability of a range of information technologies that are purpose-built and task-specific and has also created vulnerabilities for each of the members of the international community.

Today’s globalised world has been built upon a web of networks. These interconnected networks have eased the way of life and enhanced efficiency by integrating key operations and processes in the arenas of Critical Information Infrastructure such as banking and finance systems, power-grids, railways, etc., and has fortified state capabilities with improved Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance capabilities, early warning systems, etc. But at the same time, the states seem to have become more vulnerable to myriad threats like cybercrimes, identity theft, cyber espionage, etc. The ICT revolution has not only been used by the state actors but also non-state actors to maximise their interest at a low cost. With the growing cases like the Stuxnet attack on Iran’s nuclear facility, Denial of Service (DoS) attacks on Estonian organisations, or the use of spy malware or ransomware like Flame, Petya, etc., one can unequivocally claim that the era of “contactless-digital” warfare has dawned. The perpetrators are usually invisible and difficult to trace back, be it individuals, state actors or state-sponsored actors. A comprehensive understanding on these emerging forms of threat will be vital to evolve strategy to remain invulnerable.

The growing capabilities of nations to exploit ICT for political, economic and military predominance have added a geopolitical dimension to this networked arena. In this context, the role of militaries and the way militaries will be organised and equipped will undoubtedly undergo transformation as they will need to adapt to the Information Age. This diffusion of technology blended with military systems is challenging. The attacks on the communications and sensing systems of any country could occur with little or no warning at all, thus impacting the ability to assess, coordinate, communicate, and respond. As a result, future conflicts between states may prove to be unpredictable, costly, and difficult to control. Therefore, countries are continuously working towards developing weapon systems and capabilities which can effectively respond to Information Warfare.

States face a constant dilemma with regard to integrating and utilising “dual-natured” ICT and interfacing it with the emerging technologies. The increased sense of vulnerability among nation states due to the advances in ICT has completely altered the views of the countries on how to secure and protect their population, borders and critical assets. Nevertheless, going back to a “network-less” world is also not an option. Thus, the nation states’ conundrum in addressing this paradox of progress has clearly been evident over the years.

Due to the rapid advances in ICT technologies, there has been a sense of realisation among nation states that warfare in the twenty-first century will not be fought on a physical battleground but rather on a virtual battlefield, the implications of which will be felt on the physical world. In this context, the monograph has sought to assess the kind of advances being made in ICT like AI, autonomous systems, machine deep learning, etc., and the challenges that it would pose for the nation states. Certainly, these advances in ICT represent incremental improvements on what has already existed and enhance the competencies of the military along dimensions that have been traditionally valued. These kinds of technological developments present relatively few challenges to the armed forces as they would reduce unnecessary material, personnel and collateral damage and aid in increasing battlespace awareness. Based on these strengths and weaknesses generated by the ICT revolution, the research has sought to examine the manner in which these technologies have figured in the warfare strategies of major powers. For instance, modern armed forces endeavour to obtain superiority over the enemy by deploying advanced technologies like Artificial Intelligence, robotics, humanoids, and, above all, digital communications and computer networks compel them to adopt new warfighting techniques. This has fundamentally redefined the way warfare is being conducted.

Finally, the study has also attempted to articulate the concerns of nation states with regard to integrating and utilising these information and communication technologies so as to protect their critical infrastructure and key resources. The research also analyses India’s position in overall threat assessment emanating from advances in ICT. An attempt has been made to evaluate its readiness in formulating a national security matrix in the information era while gauging the degree of preparedness the country has to deal with the prospect of future wars.

Survey of Literature

A succinct survey of the changing complexities of modern warfare and, as a result, a country’s ability to secure itself, has led to an understanding that ICT stands on the forefront of myriad changes in the nature of warfare. The effectiveness of technological breakthrough as argued by various schools of thought in the theoretical realm plays a key role in ascertaining the evolution of nature of warfare. The literature on change in military organisations suggests that “major change” in warfare only comes about either through a defeat in war or through a significant civilian intervention or could be a combination of both. For instance, in the 2008 Russo-Georgian war, Russia realised its inherent shortcomings in terms of military and technological capabilities. Vladimir Putin, the current president of Russia, became the main driver of change, aiming to create a military that would be a reflection of Russian power in the international stage. Putin wanted to prevent Russia from being cornered by the Western powers. It was with this conviction in mind that Putin set in train a series of reforms in the military arena. Thus ascertaining the premise that civilian intervention has a significant role to play in transforming many aspects of warfare. Contrary to this view, an alternative perspective suggests that technological breakthrough can also be raisons d’être for the perceived changes in the likely nature of warfare. Scholars believe that the dominance over a technology often follows the principle of “first move” advantage. This understanding of technology may be problematic in the sense that it tends to create a race (akin to cat and mouse chase) to gain superiority and technological edge, thus creating lethal and deadly weapons in the process. (Rod Thorton, “The Changing Nature of Modern Warfare,” The Rusi Journal (UK), v. 160, n. 4, pp. 42–44, September 4, 2015.)

The current era of globalisation has brought about a series of changes impacting nearly every aspect of human activity. At the heart of globalisation lies the spread of new ICT technologies which have increased the pace of globalisation through an increasing degree of interconnectedness and interdependency, thus enabling a global information environment. (Tarak Bakawi, Globalization and War, USA: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, 2005, pp. 546–47.) Various studies suggest that advances in ICT technologies have the ability to create new capabilities and products that can penetrate in society within no time. However, these revolutions have a paradoxical effect where on the one hand they provide nation states with a distinct advantage on the battlefield, and on the other make them more vulnerable. (Wiebe E. Bijker, The Vulnerability of Technological Culture: Cultures of Technology and the Quest for Innovation, New York: Berghahn Books, 2006, pp. 52–55.)

Many scholars have time and again reiterated that technological development is as destructive as it has been productive. (Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1993, p. 48.) Therefore, the advances in technology have always been central to the concepts of anarchy and power. With the coming of ICT age, there have been debates and deliberations on the discourse which focuses on understanding how ICT and power are interrelated. (Daniel R. McCarthy, Power, Information Technology, and International Relations Theory, UK: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015, p. 1.) Realists continue to ascertain that advances in technology in general and ICT in particular would always remain synonymous with power. (Stephen M. Walt, “The Renaissance of Security Studies,” International Studies Quarterly (Chicago), v. 35, n. 2, 1991, pp. 211–12.) The related literature highlights that those nations that are able to gain mastery over certain critical technologies ICT would always have an edge over those who are still in the nascent stage of development.

In the ICT age, “Information” is the key component and ICT technologies endow nation states with the ability to collect, process and disseminate an uninterrupted flow of information while exploiting or denying an adversary’s ability to do so. Thus providing states with operational advantage in a conflict scenario. Contrary to this belief, liberals opine that besides states there are other dominant actors in the international system that has complicated the understanding of power. (Tim Dunne, Liberalism in the Globalization of World Politics, New York: Oxford University Press, 2011, p. 78.) The increased interconnectivity and interdependence may tend to increase the threat matrix and vulnerability.

Constructivists talk about how information tends to shape perceptions and changes the conduct of war. In fact, virtual reality has been blurring the line between real and imagined. (Virtual reality here indicates the computer-generated virtual environment that one can explore in some manner and could be created in accordance to one’s needs and criteria.) Last, the literature on the theory of complex interdependence, besides sharing the liberal’s perspective, also advocates how the networked world would become more complex and more vulnerable. (Joseph Nye and Robert Keohane, “Power and Interdependence,” International Organisation, v. 41, n. 4, pp. 725–28.) It also highlights that states and their control over forces might dwindle in importance, but non-state actors will gain prominence. This could be attributed to the understanding that the non-state actors would have access to the same technologies, to unlock violence and destruction, that the state actors are trying to get to remain all-powerful. This may mark the end of State’s monopoly over power. (Johan Eriksson and Giampiero Giacomello, International Relations and Security in the Digital Age, London: Routledge, 2010.)

One of the crucial elements in the study of advances in ICT is also understanding the “equalising” effect of ICT that has been creating asymmetry among nations. The related literature reflects that ICT capabilities have been a source of asymmetry in many aspects of waging war, be it knowledge or capabilities, and often favours the offensive forces rather than defensive. There have been two dominant approaches to ICTs in International Relations, “technological instrumentalism” and “technological essentialism.” Both approaches tend to debar technological developments as a form of social power. Technological instrumentalism is posited on the assertion that technology in itself does not bring about a social change. That is to say that weapons are not biased towards offensive and defensive purposes. (Robert Jervis, “Cooperation Under Security Dilemma, World Politics (UK), v. 30, n. 2, 1978.) Weapons achieve this orientation when used either offensively or defensively. Contrarily, technological essentialism characterises technology as inherently being the cause of social change. (Jan A. Scholte, Globalization: A Critical Introduction, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2005, p. 35.)

Many authors have agreed to the proponents of technological essentialism. Evidently, the changing nature of warfare has been impinging on advances in ICT in the twenty-first century through its spillover effect in the military domain. With the coming of new technologies, it would become even more difficult to resist using them in war. (Greg Allen and Taniel Chan, “Artificial Intelligence and National Security,” Belfer Centre Study (USA), 2017.) Building a new breed of military equipment using new ICT technologies is one thing and deciding what uses of this new power are acceptable is another. The way countries are adapting to the changed environment is evident from their military strategy documents. Most of these documents shed light on preparations for a war that would be fought not on the battleground but rather on the virtual ground, indicating the dawn of information warfare. These technologies no doubt have many positive impacts, but at the same time it has made countries more vulnerable and created weak spots to be exploited by the adversary. The increased cases of cybercrime and cyberattacks speak volumes of the intensity of vulnerability these ICT tools have brought with it. (Susan W. Brenner, Cybercrime: Criminal Threats from Cyberspace, Toronto: Praeger, 2010, p. 45.)

Modern society is built upon a number of physical infrastructures such as transport, banking and finance, telecommunications and so on. The literature on security of Critical Information Infrastructure highlights that the seamless functioning of these infrastructures is essential for the well-being of a country. With the emergence of information technology (IT), all these infrastructures have been interlinked and are dependent upon information systems for their day-to-day functioning, maintenance and operations (Dunn, 2006). The evolving information infrastructure is complex and poses challenges to security measures due to decentralised operations, diverse technologies, multiple actors and varying interests of the stakeholders. If one juxtaposes the changing security scenario in India’s case it becomes very interesting to note where the country stands in terms of protection of Critical Information Infrastructure (CII) and security of its networks. With the push towards creating a centralised database (interlinked to all identity documents of an individual), safety of all its critical aspects becomes paramount in the country’s overall national security dynamics. (Brian T. Bennett, Understanding, Assessing and Responding to Terrorism: Protecting Critical Infrastructure and Personnel, New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons, 2007, p. 230.)

Various countries—including the United States and China—have been building capabilities that could avert the threat that emanates from the advances in ICT. Though it is still a matter of debate whether these actions are defensive or offensive, nevertheless India can learn several important lessons for enhancing the protection of its CII. India is quickly adapting to the changes introduced by the advances in ICT but contrarily India also ranks high on the number of cyberattacks. Experts are of the view that India needs to take cognisance of emerging technologies like AI, machine learning and big data analytics, and develop indigenous capabilities in these areas. Many scholars also believe that the country should also build capabilities for law enforcement, ensure monitoring and deal with legal challenges. All these elements have a strong technological dimension to them. (Prakash Katoch, “Network Centric Warfare,” Indian Defence Review (New Delhi), v. 28, January 27, 2014.)

To create a comprehensive understanding of the “vulnerabilities” that are caused due to the advances in ICT requires an in-depth understanding of fundamentals of Information Warfare and CII. Armed with a general understanding of the concepts of Information Warfare (IW) and Network-Centric Warfare (NCW), individuals and organisations are developing new ways of accomplishing their missions by leveraging the power of information and applying network-centric concepts. A great deal of what has been done is “picking low-hanging fruit” by direct application of new technology with existing practice. To jump to the next level, it is important to improve the understanding of how information is created and how NCW concepts can translate information into increased “combat power” and “military effectiveness.” (David S. Alberts, John J. Garstka and Frederick P. Stein, “Network Centric Warfare: Developing and Leveraging Information Superiority”, CCRP Publishing Series: Washington DC, 2000, p. 88.) This has been accomplished by first, articulating the key concepts of IW and NCW and the ways they are interrelated. Second, by analysing the degree to which these concepts are realised and last, by systematically an...