Part I
Background
1 Assessing Mogheriniâs âThe European Union in a Changing Global Environmentâ from within a âreflexive modernâ world
Sabine Selchow
Introduction
In June 2015, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (HR) Federica Mogherini published the document âThe European Union in a changing global environment: A more connected, contested and complex worldâ (EU 2015). This document assesses the EUâs security environment. In the process of the development of the EU Global Strategy (EUGS), the document served two purposes. First, it constituted the basis on which the European Council gave Mogherini the mandate to develop the new EU Global Strategy (European Council 2015). Second, it served as the point of reference for those who were to contribute to the development of the EUGS in the consultative process that Mogherini initiated. But the document did not lose its relevance after the publication of the EUGS; it remains the central official assessment of the security environment. This is because, in contrast to other security strategies, the document of the EUGS does not provide its own assessment of the EUâs strategic environment. It is âThe European Union in a changing global environmentâ that keeps serving this purpose.
Strategic assessments of security environments, such as âThe European Union in a changing global environmentâ, are more than texts. They are part of the symbolic negotiation of the world, that is, they are part of the negotiation of what is thinkable and doable (see further Selchow 2016a; also, Kaldor and Selchow in this volumeâs conclusion). Guided by an understanding of the contemporary world as being âreflexive modernâ, and grounded in a systematic analysis of the web of meanings âEuropean securityâ that is produced through the document, this chapter argues that there is something remarkable about Mogheriniâs strategic assessment: it holds radical openings towards âEuropean securityâ beyond modern premises, i.e. it holds openings for a future EU that is fit for âreflexive modernâ times.1
European security in a âreflexive modernâ world
In 2013, the European Council invited the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy to assess âthe impact of changes in the global environment, and to report to the Council in the course of 2015 on the challenges and opportunities arising for the Union, following consultations with the Member Statesâ (European Council 2013, p. 5). In June 2015, HR Mogherini presented her assessment, entitled âThe European Union in a changing global environment: A more connected, contested and complex worldâ (EU 2015). On the basis of this assessment, the European Council concluded the HR would âcontinue the process of strategic reflection with a view to preparing an EU global strategy on foreign and security policy in close cooperation with Member Statesâ (European Council 2015, p. 5). The EU Global Strategy (EUGS) was published in June 2016.
The development of the strategic assessment âThe European Union in a changing global environmentâ was a collaborative exercise that took place over the first six months of 2015. At its heart was âan informal working group, including representatives from the European External Action Service, the European Commission, the Council Secretariat and the European Councilâ (Tocci 2015, p. 119). The strategic document was not only to serve as the ground, on which the European Council asked Mogherini to prepare the EU Global Strategy, but also as a key point of reference in the development of the EUGS. The EUGS, too, was to be developed through a consultative process that was to stretch âbeyond the circles of the foreign policy community and get everybody involvedâ (Mogherini 2015b). âI want a strategy that responds to the ideas, the fears, and even the dreams of the European citizens, the young and the older generationsâ, explained Mogherini (ibid.) when she launched the process. An important motivation for this consultative process was the understanding that the development of the EUGS is:
not only about foreign policy, it is not only about our role in the World, but it can be and must be very much about us, about Europe, about who we are, how we work together, what as Europeans we share in terms on common foreign and security policy. It is about making a European public opinion on foreign policy and security policy emerge.
(Ibid.)
As one of Mogheriniâs advisors put it, âthe primary purpose of an âexternalâ strategy is actually internalâ (Tocci 2015, p. 116). With this, Mogherini and her team aptly captured the nature of documents like the EUGS as well as âThe European Union in a changing global environmentâ. These are not just texts that describe a reality that exists outside themselves but are part of the construction of this world. They make the world meaningful. They âsystematically form the objects of which they speakâ (Foucault 1972, p. 49). As such, texts, such as the EUGS as well as Mogheriniâs initial strategic assessment of the EUâs security environment, are part of the social negotiation of the world. More precisely, they produce and reproduce âinterpretive dispositionsâ (Doty 1993, p. 298) that make some things imaginable, thinkable and doable and others not (see further Selchow 2016a; Selchow 2017; also, Kaldor and Selchow in this volumeâs conclusion).
Two points make Mogheriniâs strategic assessment âThe European Union in a changing global environmentâ a particularly interesting document. First, due to its distinct institutionalised character and the outstanding relevance that the web of meaning âsecurityâ plays in the construction of the world it is a particularly influential text; the document plays a relatively powerful role in the symbolic negotiation of the world, and, as such, deserves scholarly attention. Second, the current negotiation of European security and, with that, the construction of the EU collective self through an assessment of the security environment, such as Mogheriniâs 2015 document, takes place in a distinct historical moment, which makes such exercise particularly sensitive. This is a moment, in which the global consequences of modernisation, in other words, the âreflexive natureâ of modernisation is more apparent than ever. Whether or not it is explicitly acknowledged, European security today is European security in a âreflexive modernâ world.
The notion of âreflexive modernisationâ is prominently developed in the work of sociologist Ulrich Beck (especially 1991, 1994, 2006, 2009; also, Beck and Grande 2007). As discussed in more detail elsewhere (Selchow 2016c, 2017), Beckâs various writings and ideas can be brought together, digested and interpreted in a way that brings out a picture of social reality according to which it is subject to and shaped by the interplay of the reflexive âbackfiringâ of modernisation, on the one side, and the prevalence of the tradition of the ânational perspectiveâ, on the other side. The term reflexive âbackfiringâ of modernisation refers to a process, in which societies and their institutions are confronted with the side effects of the process of modernisation (such as climate change and global terrorism (Beck 2003)). What is crucial for such an understanding of the world is that these side-effects are not to be understood as the dark side of modernisation but as its very success. Beck (e.g. 2009) uses the term âglobal riskâ to capture these side effects, these unintended consequences of decisions that are/were grounded in modern institutions (such as the nation-state, the market etc.) and basic modern principles (such as freedom, market dependence, rationality, progress, statehood, the obligation to give reasons, etc). As elaborated elsewhere in more detail (Selchow 2014, 2017), the concept âglobal riskâ captures that the unintended consequences of decisions are to be imagined as potentially being âsocially delimited in space and timeâ (see Beck and Grande 2007, p. 418). Furthermore, it captures that â as just mentioned â they are to be seen as the very success of modernisation, progress and advancements in scientific knowledge production. Finally, the concept âglobal riskâ captures that these potential side effects are to be seen as potentially producing non-knowledge (Nichtwissen) (Beck 2009; see also Wehling 2010). This means that decisions can no longer be grounded in an assessment of their potential unintended consequences that is shaped by a national container-thinking, and that is based on the (optimistic) modern belief in progress through scientific knowledge production. On the contrary, these potential unintended consequences, i.e. âglobal risksâ, need to be understood as âa result of more knowledgeâ (Beck 2009, p. 5; emphasis added), as opposed to something that could be âtamed â and dealt with through more (modern scientific) knowledge. In this sense, as Beck and Grande (2007, p. 417) put it, âglobal risksâ produce a distinct contemporary social reality because it brings along a âborderlessâ necessity to cooperate (Kooperationszwang), as well as an interrelation of responsibility (Verantwortungszusammenhang). At the same time, they bring along an âinherent uncertaintyâ because established modern institutions and modern principles do no longer hold the potential of addressing them (without producing âglobal risksâ).2 This is what it means to say that modernisation radicalises itself and reflexively âbackfiresâ. It does not only overturn its own institutions but also its own modern principles. âModernity in this sense is a sub-political ârevolutionary systemâ without a revolutionary program or goalâ, explains Beck (1991, p. 41).
The âreflexive backfiringâ of modernisation fundamentally challenges traditional perspectives on contemporary social reality, its modern (national) institutions and the (modern) grounds, on which decisions are made and legitimised. It challenges what is the second aspect that shapes contemporary social reality, namely the prevalence of the tradition of the ânational perspectiveâ (especially Beck 2006). The ânational perspectiveâ is a way of looking at the world that is blind to the above-sketched reality of the reflexive âbackfiringâ of modernisation that is manifest in âglobal risksâ; the adjective ânationalâ is used here in a relatively broad sense, referring more to âmodernâ than narrowly to ânationalâ. What Beck calls ânational perspectiveâ is a view at social reality that is grounded in the narrative of modernity with its above-mentioned belief in progress, optimistic scientific knowledge production (see further Selchow 2016c; also, Selchow 2017),3 and, not least, a (national) container-thinking that is the foundation of the international system (especially Beck 2006, pp. 24 and 48). With that, the ânational perspectiveâ produces an ideational layer that brings out and ânaturalisesâ institutions that are not only âinadequateâ in the face of a social reality, which is shaped by nothing less than the âbackfiringâ of modernisation itself and the very principles which brought them out, but that actually produces âglobal risksâ, as well as, concepts that âare historically obsolete but that nonetheless continue to govern our thinking and actingâ (Beck 2003, p. 255), and institutions, which Beck (in Grefe 2000) calls âzombie institutionsâ in that they appear to be âaliveâ in an imagined modern world but are actually âdeadâ in a reflexive modern reality.
Understanding social reality as being subject to âreflexive modernisationâ has profound implications for how to assess the state of the world and strategies to deal with contemporary challenges, such as the security of the EU and its member states. A âreflexive modernâ reality is a reality that requires institutions that are not based in and reproduce modern premises as these bring out âglobal risksâ, but institutions and premises that are different in kind to a ânational perspectiveâ. So, does Mogheriniâs strategic assessment hold pathways towards such a future? Does it hold openings that allow imagining a world beyond modern institutions and premises?
âEuropean Securityâ in Mogheriniâs âThe European Union in a changing global environmentâ
Mogheriniâs strategic assessment âThe European Union in a changing global environmentâ brings out a fascinating and complex world.4 The first noteworthy aspect of this world is its historical positioning; it constitutes, both, continuity and a radical break with the past. A sense of historical continuity is constructed in the text through the use of the word more. The world that is symbolically reproduced in and through âThe European Union in a changing global environmentâ is âmore connectedâ, âmore complexâ, âmore contestedâ (EU 2015, emphasis added). The word more indicates âdifference in degreeâ from the past, rather than âdifference in kindâ. It links the now with the past, indicating meaningful change but not a radical break with the past. At the same time, however, there is a radical and explicit break with the past, namely with the world that has been constructed in the 2003-EU Security Strategy (ESS 2003). This break is made at the beginning of Mogheriniâs strategic assessment. Its first sentence is: âSince the 2003 Security Strategy, the EUâs strategic environment has changed radicallyâ (EU 2015, p. 123). The world of âThe European Union in a changing global environmentâ is no longer âa post-Cold War environmentâ but a world of â21st century realitiesâ (EU 2015, p. 145). This break with the world of the ESS 2003 is remarkable because, in a different world, the status of historical knowledge and âlessons learnedâ is precarious. In a world that is âdifferent in kindâ, historical knowledge loses legitimacy (see further Selchow 2013) â in the case of Mogheriniâs âThe European Union in a changing global environmentâ this is the knowledge and âlessons learnedâ around the ESS 2003. In this sense, âThe European Union in a changing global environmentâ symbolically establishes a new beginning and a clear demarcation to the world of the ESS 2003.
A second noteworthy aspect of the world of Mogheriniâs strategic assessment is that it is âcomplexâ; it is a world of â21st century realitiesâ (EU 2015, p. 145) that are âcomplexâ realities. In the 2003 Security Strategy (ESS 2003), the adjective complex plays only a marginal role; here, âproblemsâ and âcausesâ are âcomplexâ. In the world of Mogheriniâs strategic assessment, however, it is nothing less but the âworldâ and the âenvironmentâ that are âcomplexâ. In other words, âcomplexityâ is the state of the world. This implies four things. First, established institutions are not able to deal with the new realities.
While the UN remains the principal guarantor of the sovereign equality among states, the composition of its Security Council and the distribution of voting rights in the International Financial Institutions no longer reflect current realities. The World Trade Organisation has grown in membership (and thus legitimacy) but not in ability to achieve consensus or advance multilateral trade liberalisation. The G20 has emerged as a major informal forum, reflecting global power realignments. But while it played a key role in short-term crisis management during the 2008 financial crisis, it has failed so far to tackle structural global challenges in economic growth, financial markets and development. No effective global institutions are in place to confront [âŚ] pressing challenges such as migration, cyber security, arms control or natural resource management.
(EU 2015, p. 138)
Second, there are shortcomings, if not failures in existing concepts, such as âborderâ or âpolarityâ. These concepts might have worked in the âpost-Cold War eraâ but fall short in the new reality. âThe world system is no longer bipolar, unipolar or even multipolar, the very notion of âpolarityâ is in questionâ (ibid., p. 136). The complexity of the world also implies the irrelevance of the clear distinction between âinternalâ and âexternalâ....