1.2 The Prophets of the Doomed Turned Into Scientists
For well over a century, the world has been hearing that we are about to run out of fossil fuel in matter of decades. First it happened with coal. In 1865, Stanley Jevons (one of the most recognized 19th century economists) predicted that England would run out of coal by 1900, and that Englandâs factories would grind to a standstill. Today, after over 150 years of Jevonsâ prediction of the impending disaster, US EIA predicts that the coal reserve will last another 325 years, based on U.S. coal production in 2017, the ârecoverable coalâ reserves would last about 325 years (EIA, 2018c).
When it comes to petroleum, as early as 1914, U.S. Bureau of Mines predicted, âThe world will run out of oil in 10 yearsâ (quoted by Eberhart, 2017). Later, the US Department of Interior chimed in, claiming that âthe world would run out of oil in 13 yearsâ (quoted by Eberhart, 2017). Obviously, the world has not run out of oil, the world, however, has been accustomed to the same âdoomsday warningâ and whooped it up as âsettled scienceâ (Speight and Islam, 2016). Starting with Zatzman and Islamâs (2007) work, this theme of ârunning out of oilâ has been deconstructed and over a decade later, the actual settled science has become the fact that itâs not a matter of if falsehoods are perpetrated it is a mater of why. In 2018a, Islam et al. made it clear that the entire matter is an economic decision, concocted to increase short-term profit. Science, let alone the science of sustainability, cannot be based on falsehood and deception.
It is the same story about âconcernsâ of climate change and the hysteria that followed. All studies miraculously confirmed something scientists were paid to do whip up decades ago (Islam and Khan, 2019). Now that that âscienceâ has matured into settled science, carbon has become the enemy and the âcarbon taxâ a universal reality.
If anything good came out of centuries of New Science, it is the fact that this âscienceâ and these scientists cannot be relied upon as a starting point (paradigm) for future analysis because each of those tracks will end up with paradoxes and falsehoods that would reveal themselves only as a matter of time.
1.3 Paradigm Shift in Sustainable Development
Both terms, âparadigm shiftâ and âsustainabilityâ have been grossly misused in recent years. Paradigm shift, a phrase that was supposed to mean a different starting point (akin to the Sanskrit word, ŕ¤ŕ¤ŽŕĽŕ¤˛ŕ¤Ž, Amulam, meaning âfrom the beginningâ) has repeatedly and necessarily used the same starting point as the William Stanley Jevons (1835-1882), John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) the two most prominent alarmist of our time, both of whom were inspired by Adam Smith (1723-1790), the âfather of Capitalismâ and virtually added nothing beyond what Adam Smith purported as the âultimate truthâ. Scientists, in the meantime, followed suit with regurgitating Atomism (a doctrine originally started by Democritus), recycled by Newton in name of New Science. The loop was completed when engineers blindly followed that science and defined âsustainabilityâ in a way that would satisfy politicians, whose primary interest lies in maintaining status quo â the antonym of progress. It is no surprise, therefore, our survey from over decade ago revealed that there is not a single technology that is sustainable (Chhetri and Islam, 2008). That leaves no elbow room for petroleum engineering to survive, let alone to thrive. Unsurprisingly, even petroleum companies have resigned to the âsettled scienceâ that carbon is the enemy and petroleum resources have no place in our civilization (Islam et al., 2012; Islam and Khan, 2019).
The current book is a continuation of our research groupâs work that started publishing on the subject of global sustainability involving energy and environment, dating back to early 2000s. In terms of the research monograph, we started the paradigm shift from economics, the driver of modern civilization, aptly characterized as the brainchild of Adam Smith. When our book, Economics of Intangibles (Zatzman and Islam, 2007) was published, it was perhaps the first initiatives to recognize the role of intangibles in economics and eventually all science and engineering. At that time, the very concept of intangibles in Economics was perceived to be an oxymoron. Ten years later, it became recognized as a natural process (Website 5), and a recognized branch of economics (Website 6). Now we know that without this approach, we cannot solve a single paradox. For that matter, economics is a branch that has the most number of paradoxes among all disciplines. It is quite revealing that after publishing some dozen of research monographs on the topic on sustainability in energy and environment, there had to be an encore of the original work on Economics to present specifically economics of sustainable energy (Islam et al., 2018a) â a book that solved all major paradoxes, included many cited by Nobel laureate economists.
By adequately introducing a paradigm shift in economic consideration, new features to sustainability could be invoked. When the concept of intangibles is introduced to fundamental engineering analysis, âzero-wasteâ production becomes a reality. There again, when we introduced the concept of zero-waste as distinct from waste minimization over a decade ago, it was met with scepticism (Khan and Islam, 2012; Chhetri and Islam, 2008). Even the academics couldnât stomach the concept that rocked the foundation of their long-term belief that waste can only be minimized and sustainability is a matter of adding another means to cover up the immediate consequences of the âtoxic shockâ, which no doubt made a lot of money for those who initiated it, leaving behind a âtechnological disasterâ. Today, zero-waste engineering is accepted as a frontier of sustainable development (Khan and Islam, 2016).
Perhaps the biggest shock was when our research group introduced the concept of Green Petroleum in mid 2000âs. When our books on Green Petroleum (Islam et al., 2010; Islam et al., 2012) were introduced to the general readership, the phrase Green Petroleum was considered to be an oxymoron. The word âgreenâ was reserved for renewable energy sources â something we deemed to be unsustainable (Chhetri and Islam, 2008). Ever since that pioneering work, the world has become more accustomed to the phrase âGreen Petroleumâ although petroleum engineers remain clueless about how to fight against the âcarbon is the enemyâ mantra that has swept the entire globe outside of the 3% scientists, who are marginalized as âconspiracy theoristsâ, âcreationistsâ, etc. In defence of the 97% alarmists, the 3% never talked about real science, instead resorting to denying climate change altogether (Islam and Khan, 2019). The biggest victim of this saga has been real science and real engineering. Today, when petroleum engineers talk about sustainable development, they mean coupling with biosurfactants, or generating some energy with solar or wind power. They have all but forgotten petroleum itself is 100% natural and that if a paradigm of ânature is sustainableâ - a time honoured principle that has millennia of history to back it up, there is nothing more sustainable than petroleum itself.
With that paradigm shift, our research group was able to debunk the following myths, some of which are in the core of every technology of modern era.
Myth 1: Natural resources are limited, human greed is infinity;
Myth 2: There is no universal standard for sustainability, therefore, total sustainability is a myth;
Myth 3: Environmental integrity must come with a cost and compromise with cost effectiveness must be made;
Myth 4: Human intervention is limited to adding artificial or synthetic chemicals;
Myth 5: 3 Râs (Reduce, Recycle, Reuse) is the best we can do;
Myth 6: Energy and mass are separable, meaning mass has no role in energy transfer;
Myth 7: All physical changes are reversible and original state can be restored as long as external features are...
