The Trend Forecaster's Handbook

Second Edition

Martin Raymond

• Publisher: Laurence King
• Year: 2019
• eBook ISBN: 9781786276643
• Topic: Social Sciences
• Subtopic: Sociology
• Index: Social Sciences

The Trend Forecaster's Handbook is a sharp, highly visual textbook and teaching aid for students and tutors keen to know more about the world of trends, trend forecasting and consumer-insight techniques.This 'how to' book provides the skills to understand and track trends and use them to inform their research, design and product development. Highly visual, the book introduces the world of trend forecasting and consumer insight in a step-by-step way, with quotes from, interviews with and case studies of key players. Each chapter provides practical exercises and examples that allow students to experience the techniques or methodologies explored.Trends are a fundamental part of our emotional, physical and psychological landscape, and by forecasting trends we can begin to understand what drives and motivates consumers. This in turn can help to make the difference between a design that sells and one that languishes on the shelf.Reviews"Highly visual and a genuinely eye-opening insight into the way designers can spot and dictate visual and cultural trends, keeping their work constantly at the cutting edge." – Computers Arts Project"The book is clear and concise, offers a journey through the unexpected, and engages the reader with clear guidelines. It offers insider knowledge and soundbites from those working in the industry." – Just4Textiles"The Trend Forecaster Handbook is a well published and intelligently written book for starting 'forecasters' looking for theoretical background and interesting experiences." – The Pop-Up City

Table of contents

• Contents
• Foreword
• Chapter 1. The Anatomy of a Trend
• The Definition of a Trend
• The Future Imperfect
• The Millenial Hipster
• Memes and Trend Viruses
• Diffusion of Innovations
• Diffusion of Innovation Types
• Memes: All Your Base Are Belong to Us
• Crossing the Chasm
• The Raw Movement
• Femininity Rebranded
• The Diffusion of the Innovation Curve
• Case Study: Anne Lise Kjaer
• The Filter Bubble
• The Overton Window
• Actively Open-Minded Thinking
• Summary
• Chapter 2. The Trend Forcaster’s Toolkit
• A New Openness
• Weak Signals: New Things in the Culture
• Cultural Brailling and Horizon Scanning
• Influencers
• Cultural Scanning
• Cross-Cultural Analysis
• The Bias Trap
• Techniques: Selecting Your Expert Panel
• Techniques: Depth Interviewing
• Case Study: Henry Mason
• Summary
• Chapter 3. Intuition and Strategic Foresight
• The Foresight Brain
• Gut Intuition
• Strategic Intuition
• Techniques: Boundary Crossing
• Flash Foresight
• Techniques: Improving Empathy
• Strategic Foresight Practices
• Three Horizons Scanning
• Techniques: Using Observation
• Case Study: Patricia Lustig
• Backcasting
• Summary
• Chapter 4. Network Forecasting
• Intuitive Forecasting Networks
• Techniques: Colloborative Unnocation Networks (CoINs)
• Dawn of the Superforecasters
• Dots, Nodes, Hubs, Links and Supernodes
• The Law of Preferential Attachment
• Techniques: Ensuring Network Diversity
• The Law of Weak-Tie Networks
• The Rule of Diversity in Networks
• The 80/20 Principle
• Hierarchical Networks
• Colloborative Networks
• Distributive Networks
• Determining a Network’s Purpose
• Avoiding the Self-Similarity Bias
• Beware the Proximity Principle
• Cultivating Trust
• Case Study: Lucie Greene
• The Anatomy of a Superforecaster
• Adversarial Collaboration
• An Ethical Backbone
• Givers, Takers and Matchers
• Summary
• Chapter 5. Cultural Triangulation
• Decoding the Future
• Cultural Triangulation
• The Interrogation Stage
• Techniques: Successful Question Framing
• Case Study: Ariane van de Ven
• Research Framing
• Trend Index Wheel
• Polling Consumers
• AI and Descriptive Analytics
• The Observation Stage
• The Intuition Stage
• Techniques: Undertaking Photographic Case Studies
• Case Study: The Future Laboratory
• Writing Up Your Report
• Summary
• Chapter 6. Scenario Planning
• The Multiple Futures Machine
• Scenario Planning Stages
• Techniques: Successful Role Playing
• Alternative Forecasting Methodologies and Techniques
• Case Study: Anab Jain
• The European School and the American School of Scenario Planning
• Summary
• Chapter 7. Foresight, Strategy and Sprint Innovation
• The Ideation Machine
• Research and Innovation Stages
• Techniques: Working Through the Innovation Process
• The Inspiration and Research Stage
• Techniques: Running a Successful Workshop
• The Translation and Challenge Stage
• The Immersion Stage
• The Product and Development Stage
• Case Study: Cat Tully
• Summary
• Notes
• The Future Laboratory Glossary of Trends
• Index
• Picture Credits
• Acknowledgements