The Caribbean Basin To The Year 2000

Demographic, Economic, And Resource Use Trends In Seventeen Countries: A Compendium Of Statistics And Projections

Norman A Graham, Keith L Edwards

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2019
• Print ISBN: 9780367305970
• eBook ISBN: 9781000315066
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Politique et relations internationales
• Subtopic: Commerce Général

This book analyzes long-term demographic, economic, and resource-use trends in seventeen Caribbean basin countries. It points to the potentially destabilizing role of rapid population growth incorporating forecasting techniques to examine the impact of the factors for each country to the year 2000.

1
Introduction and Overview

Introduction

Considerable analysis and policy prescription have been directed toward developments and emerging problems in the Caribbean basin countries of late. Certainly, there is no shortage of views on the ways in which these developments and problems pose policy and security challenges for U.S. policymakers; and President Reagan's Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) and Central American policy have generated considerable analysis and debate.¹ Most of this writing and research, however, has generally taken a near-term view, focusing on proximate threats and policy guidance and ignoring or insufficiently treating the major long-term demographic, economic and resource use trends in the region. This study is an initial attempt to explore these trends and their implications for U.S. interests and security in the long term.

The study is essentially a comparative analysis of demographic, economic and resource use trends in seventeen Caribbean basin countries. A variety of techniques was used to forecast these trends to the year 2000 for each country. These techniques and the assumptions and data used in their application are discussed in considerable detail in Chapter 2.

Overview

In general, the results of the projections and analysis make it clear that many of the Caribbean basin countries face a long-term struggle against severe demographic and economic pressures. This, of course, assumes no dramatic improvements in their trade and aid environments and no drastic policies to curb population growth in the near future. It also assumes, however, some fertility decline, varying from country to country according to recent trends, and moderate economic growth, both of which may not in fact occur in all cases. These trends, of course, can only worsen for several countries if the present conflict and instability in Central America continues or widens.

Table 1.1 summarizes the projections for the future growth of total population in the region, given current and expected age distributions, fertility rates, life expectancy and migration patterns in each of the countries. The total population in the Caribbean basin will likely increase by nearly 50 percent to more than 77 million by the year 2000. Population

TABLE 1.1 Total population of the principal countries in the Caribbean basin for 1982 and 2000

Country	Total Population in 1982	Total Population in 2000
Cuba	9,853,100	11,600,800
Guatemala	7,694,000	12,636,100
Dominican Republic	6,249,500	9,276,900
Haiti	6,110,800	9,628,200
El Salvador	5,094,600	8,718...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• About the Book and Authors
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• List of Tables and Figures
• Acknowledgments
• 1 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
• 2 METHOD AND DATA SOURCES
• 3 COUNTRY PROFILES
• 4 INTERRELATIONSHIPS AMONG DEMOGRAPHIC, ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS
• 5 IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. INTERESTS AND POLICY