A Middle East Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction

A New Approach to Nonproliferation

Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Emad Kiyaei

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2020
• Print ISBN: 9780367489588
• eBook ISBN: 9781000071955
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: International Relations
• Index: Politics & International Relations

The establishment of a Middle East zone free of nuclear weapons, a concept more recently broadened to cover all weapons of mass destruction (WMD), has been before the international community for decades. In this book, two experts from the region explore why the matter remains unresolved, and outline a comprehensive yet achievable roadmap to a Middle East free of WMD.

Weapons of mass destruction pose an existential threat to global peace and security. But nowhere is it more urgent to stem their spread than in the Middle East, a region fraught with mistrust and instability. Accounting for these geopolitical realities, including the ongoing talks to curb Iran's nuclear program, the authors present a practical and innovative strategy to a Middle East free of weapons of mass destructions (WMD). They outline a phased approach toward disarmament in the region, prescribing confidence-building measures and verification tools to create trust among the region's governments. Their vision also sees the realization of a WMD-free zone within a broader regional agenda for security and cooperation to advance socioeconomic and political progress.

This book will be of great interest to students and scholars of international relations, politics and security studies in the Middle East.

1 Regionalization of the Iran accord

To achieve a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East requires measures to enhance transparency and verification in the conventional and peaceful applications of nuclear, biological, and chemical technologies around the region. Luckily, the tremendous international effort to resolve, through diplomatic means, Iran’s nuclear ambitions resulted in the extensive Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015. The numerous rounds of negotiations and the obstacles encountered in reaching the deal highlight the necessity of sustained political and diplomatic efforts to achieve such an ambitious and wide-ranging endeavor. Ultimately, the historic accord could serve as a foundation in the region for further expansion of the transparency and verification mechanisms created during those negotiations.

The signing of the JCPOA on July 14, 2015, following more than a decade of failed nuclear negotiations between Iran and the EU3 + 3, marked a peaceful settlement of the Iranian nuclear dispute. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unanimously approved the accord on July 20, 2015, ushering in a new era in Iran’s relations with the international community.¹ The UNSC is primarily tasked with maintaining international peace and security with the sole power within the United Nations to pass binding resolutions to all 194 UN member states, impose international sanctions, and authorize the use of military force.² The JCPOA is the most comprehensive agreement ever achieved on nonproliferation; it contains the most far-reaching transparency and verification mechanisms ever implemented in the history of the NPT. It closes all possible pathways to a nuclear weapon and prevents any covert weapons programs. While the JCPOA represents one of the most important diplomatic and nonproliferation achievements of the last several decades, regrettably, President Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA in May 2018 has showcased the vulnerability in maintaining such complex multilateral agreements. However, the ongoing international effort to salvage the nuclear deal aims to ensure that its complete unraveling is not contingent on Trump’s decision. There are encouraging signs that all other parties to the agreement (United Kingdom, Russia, Germany, France, EU, and Iran), with the notable exception of the United States, are determined to support the full implementation of the JCPOA. Ultimately, the survival of this historic nuclear accord and the process through which the international community succeeds or fails in resolving this current impasse will be paramount to global nuclear nonproliferation and the achievability of any future NWFZ and WMDFZ in the Middle East.

Iran’s nuclear negotiations

The achievement of the JCPOA offers a blueprint for multilateral negotiations and provides examples of the concessions and political will required by all sides to move the process forward. It is worth noting that the JCPOA details technical processes that have enabled the international community to render Iran’s nuclear program peaceful.

While the JCPOA was aimed specifically at resolving the Iranian nuclear dispute, the composition of the final document can serve as a basis for parts of the final WMDFZ agreement; particularly useful are the sections within the JCPOA that deal with enhanced monitoring and verification tools for nuclear activities and infrastructure. Also, the dispute resolution mechanism and confidence-building measures could be of use in the development process of the WMDFZ. The key to an eventual WMDFZ will be the coupling of multilateralism through diplomacy with the closing of current loopholes in nonproliferation treaties to stem weaponization. For this reason, a closer look at the process that achieved the JCPOA, with details on the key elements of the agreement, provides a realistic and plausible approach to the wider ambition of ridding the region of all weapons of mass destruction. This overview will also illuminate the sheer magnitude of the agreement and the intricate details that had to be ironed out among the negotiating parties. This understanding will be crucial prior to tackling the ramifications arising from President Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA.

Chronology of important milestones in JCPOA negotiations

The monumental achievement of the JCPOA involved some of the most complex diplomatic negotiations ever undertaken. An examination of these efforts and key milestones detailed subsequently can provide a glimpse into the arduous process necessary to implement a WMDFZ that requires the backing of the entire Middle East.

November 24, 2013. The shift toward a diplomatic resolution, after years of failed attempts to settle the Iranian nuclear issue, accelerated after the EU3 + 3 and Iran signed an interim nuclear deal called the Joint Plan of Action, and a new round of talks were started to reach a mutually agreed long-term comprehensive solution to ensure Iran’s nuclear program would be exclusively peaceful.³ The Joint Plan of Action represented a serious step toward defusing the long-standing dispute.

February 20, 2014. The EU3 + 3 and Iran agreed on a framework, a plan of action, and a timetable to conduct negotiations on a comprehensive agreement within four months.⁴

April 9, 2014. Negotiations in Vienna ended on a high note, with the EU foreign policy chief at the time, Catherine Ashton, noting that negotiators “held substantive and detailed discussions covering all the issues which will need to be part of a Comprehensive Agreement,” but acknowledging that “a lot of intensive work will be required to overcome the differences which naturally still exist at this stage in the process.”⁵ They also agreed to start drafting the comprehensive deal in upcoming negotiations.

June 20, 2014. This round of Vienna negotiations ended with key issues unresolved. As a result, the deadline for an agreement was extended to November 24, 2014.

July 19, 2014. Following the extension, further rounds of negotiations were held, with Iran and the EU3 + 3 agreeing to extend the approved provisions in the interim Joint Plan of Action until a final deal could be reached.

November 24, 2014. The negotiations continued in Vienna, with progress made on previous challenges, but it was clear the November 24 deadline to reach a breakthrough was unattainable. Therefore, all sides agreed to a second extension, with an aim to finalize a comprehensive deal by July 2015.⁶

April 2, 2015. The negotiations finally reached a breakthrough in Lausanne. The negotiators agreed to a framework deal for Iran’s nuclear activities, with the details presented at a joint press conference held by High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran Mohammad Javad Zarif. The framework deal addressed key issues that had marred negotiations in the past and accelerated the process toward the final agreement. Primarily, it curtailed Iran’s two primary avenues to a possible nuclear weapon: uranium enrichment and the accumulation of plutonium. Therefore, Iran committed to limit its “enrichment capacity, enrichment level and stockpile” while also “redesigning and rebuilding a modernized Heavy Water Research Reactor in Arak that will not produce weapons-grade plutonium.” To rule out the possibility of reprocessing the spent fuel from the Arak reactor to amass weapons-grade plutonium, Iran agreed to refrain from future plans to build a reprocessing plant and to export all spent fuel.

Next came the mechanisms to verify Iran would adhere to these limitations. Iran agreed to strict monitoring and inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whereby the agency can make “use of modern technologies and will have enhanced access through agreed procedures, including to clarify past and present issues.” In return:

the EU will terminate the implementation of all nuclear-related economic and financial sanctions and the US will cease the application of all nuclear-related secondary economic and financial sanctions, simultaneously with the IAEA-verified implementation by Iran of its key nuclear commitments… . A new UN Security Council Resolution will endorse the JCPOA, terminate all previous nuclear-related resolutions and incorporate certain restrictive measures for a mutually agreed period of time.⁷

July 14, 2015. Intense negotiations continued, following the framework agreement reached at the Lausanne talks. With pressure mounting on negotiators from inside and outside their respective countries, the talks were, at times, at risk of collapsing. Ultimately, following seventeen days of negotiations in Vienna, on July 14, 2015, all parties agreed to the final text of the JCPOA.⁸

July 20, 2015. The UNSC unanimously passed a resolution endorsing the JCPOA, which opened the process for UNSC nuclear-related sanctions on Iran to be removed once the steps stipulated in the JCPOA where taken. The JCPOA details a step-by-step approach and reciprocal commitments (by Iran and EU3 + 3) as laid down in the agreement with endorsement by the UNSC. The JCPOA is composed of a general section addressing the main content of the agreement, the preamble and general provisions, nuclear matters, sanctions, an implementation plan, and a dispute resolution mechanism, and is supplemented with five Annexes (Annex I: Nuclear-Related Measures, Annex II: Sanctions-Related Commitments, Annex III: Civil Nuclear Cooperation, Annex IV: Joint Commission, and Annex V: Implementation Plan).⁹

September 17, 2015. Following official endorsement of the JCPOA by the UNSC, the members of the EU3 + 3 and Iran had a ninety-day period to pass the legislation in their respective parliamentary bodies. The United States completed its congressional review process on September 17.

October 13, 2015. Iran’s parliament, Majlis, passed a bill approving the deal, while Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei weighed in a week later with a conditional endorsement in which he outlined eight specific concerns over some aspects of the accord.¹⁰ Principal among Ayatollah Khamenei’s concerns ...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• Series
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• Acknowledgments
• Foreword
• Introduction
• 1 Regionalization of the Iran accord
• 2 Multiple initiatives to make the zone a reality
• 3 A phased approach for the zone
• 4 WMD challenges
• 5 Broader challenges
• 6 Moving forward
• Index