Opinion Polls and Volatile Electorates

Problems and Issues in Polling European Societies

Matt Henn

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2019
• Print ISBN: 9781138324541
• eBook ISBN: 9780429834820
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: Politics
• Index: Politics & International Relations

Published in 1998, Opinion Polls and Volatile Electorates presents a comparative overview of the development of opinion polling in late-capitalist and post-communist societies. The author considers two related issues to help readers understand the role of polls in political affairs and the prospects for polling in the the future. Firstly, it is argued that there are certain tendencies unfolding in both late-capitalist and post-communist societies (which the author terms Complex Politics) which make polling an increasingly difficult activity. The processes affect the ability of polls to measure public opinion effectively, and to contribute to political democratisation. Secondly, the book examines whether polls extend or inhibit democratic processes. The long-standing debate between advocates and critics of polls is considered and applied to both large-capitalist and post-communist societies. It is concluded that while opinion polls may in certain ways improve democratic practices, they can also be used by powerful special interest groups to frustrate these aims.

1 Introduction

Opinion polling as an activity is well entrenched in advanced capitalist democracies. Polls are now an integral part of political landscapes, and they are likely to become even more so, particularly in relation to electoral politics in the future. Largely, this is as a result of the functions which they are able to perform in bringing political elites and citizens closer together within political systems. Polls are often characterised as consultative mechanisms through which political leaders can tap into and gauge the needs, interests and demands of the citizenry; for some writers, they ultimately facilitate political linkages and popular input into political decision-making. But polls may also play a significant role in the competition between political elites for power and influence. This is most obvious at the electoral level, where polls are often used as sources of political intelligence by political parties to gain an understanding of the dynamics of public opinion, and to maximise support and votes at elections.

This book aims to examine both the extent to which political opinion polling can contribute to democratic processes in different countries, and the degree to which polling is tied to the developing processes of restructuring and transition which are taking place in contemporary advanced societies. Specifically, the examination will focus on political opinion polling in both late-capitalist and post-communist societies. In doing so, it will consider two key related issues: firstly, how shifting political contexts impact upon the ability of polls to measure public opinion, and in so doing, affect their capacity to contribute to political democratisation in a meaningful and effective way; and secondly, whether polls extend or inhibit democratic processes.

Principally, this analysis is organised around the concept of Complex Politics. This has as its core an analytical framework which focuses upon various aspects of the political systems in both late-capitalist and post-communist societies which impinge directly upon political opinion polling. These are political culture, party systems, mechanisms for political participation, and the policy process. It is argued that, despite the obvious differences in context and recent history, the complexity of contemporary political environments in which polls operate in both types of political system are such as to display broadly similar issues and problems for opinion pollsters.

In the period between 1945 and 1989, the contexts for polling could not have been more different. In communist societies, there was a marked division between the state and society, with virtually no meaningful public input into the political process. Governments had an avowed mission to transform society according to an overriding commitment to a particular ideology, ostensibly on behalf of the citizenry. In such contexts, there was little scope for opinion polling. Opinion polls were perceived by governing elites as having little or no practical, philosophical or ideological relevance. Essentially, internal public politics did not exist. Politics were generally only public at the international level, with governments either extending friendship to other communist political systems, or engaged in an ideological offensive against global capitalism. Internally, societies were highly politicised in terms of party membership and public propaganda, but there was a notable absence of politics in the sense of publicly competing interests and adversarial opinions. One-party states were the norm, with political priorities limited to one goal (the emancipation of humankind) while class, and hence class struggle, was not officially acknowledged to exist. There was no effective choice between parties; there were no conflicting ideologies concerning how society and the economy should be run; and there were therefore presumed to be no political differences amongst citizens/voters. As Webb (1986, p. 11) put it:

One overriding factor, the predominance of the communist party and its particular philosophy, means that much of the subject matter which was the source of the growth of opinion polling in Western countries ... reporting divided opinions in the community on political issues, do not happen.

Where polling did take place, it was usually carefully controlled by the political elites, and met with significant scepticism by the public. However, in periods of political reform and liberalisation where there was a modicum of public participation in political affairs, there was heightened polling activity, and the conditions for polling were considerably more favourable than under Stalinist governments.

In capitalist societies during the early decades after the Second World War, political landscapes were more conducive for polling. There was comparatively more public access to, participation within, and attachment to the political process; as a consequence, citizens generally considered the various forms of public politics, including opinion polls, seriously. The competition between rival parties for political office made them more susceptible, accountable, and responsive to public opinion, including the results of opinion polls. And finally, the party systems were usually relatively stable with a limited number of competing parties, and typically they were characterised by strong and enduring alliances between voting groups and these parties. These alliances were based upon relatively homogenous and clearly defined value systems, with stable social and economic contexts. Furthermore, the general economic and social priorities for any government were likely to be agreed across the dominant parties. In this way, the political landscapes were largely stable. As a result, public opinion was relatively fixed and predictable, and therefore relatively straightforward to measure with opinion polls.

However, especially since 1989, political landscapes in both late-capitalist and post-communist societies have become more complex, and in many respects this complexity provides significant challenges for the opinion pollsters as they endeavour to measure public opinion. These circumstances are characterised by the lack of a unified political culture, by heterogeneous value systems, by heightened electoral volatility and the breakdown of traditional voter/party alignments, by the emergence of new parties and shifting party alliances and coalitions, by variegated participation in political affairs, and by greater susceptibility of the parties to public opinion. The post-communist societies represent extreme cases of such situations. There is significant scope for opinion polling activities in such societies, but the political conditions are such that they make it particularly difficult for the pollsters to undertake their work effectively and accurately. One important issue which this analysis raises is the extent to which these processes are taking place in late-capitalist societies like Britain? This book suggests that it is possible to make meaningful comparisons between late-capitalist and post-communist systems as far as political opinion polling is concerned. This is largely because the post-communist systems exhibit certain political features which are apparent in Western societies (such as the emergence of disparate and competing value systems, and the establishment of multi-party systems and so on), while countries like Britain and many of its neighbours in Western Europe are undergoing restructuring processes which are combining to facilitate the development of complex political landscapes more typical in Central and Eastern Europe.

In order to project the course of development of polling, the likely issues that pollsters will need to address in the future, and the shape and nature of the links between polling and the processes of democratisation in late-capitalist societies, it is instructive to refer to the current experiences of pollsters and polling in the transitional states of Central and Eastern Europe. As the processes of political pluralisation and restructuring take place in these former communist societies, this will help to identify the major problems which pollsters are likely to face in countries such as Britain and elsewhere in continental Europe when attempting to gauge political opinions, beliefs, orientations and behaviour as their own societies become more variable and complex.

From such analyses, it is concluded that polls help to extend and strengthen the political linkages between citizens and their political representatives, but that any notion that this facilitates greater 'democracy' is tempered by the control of polls by a small number of elites representing dominant interests. It is found that in both late-capitalist and post-communist systems, polls are often used by politicians and political elites to gauge the mood of the electorate on issues and policies, and monitor voters' reactions to political events. In this way, polls form a useful link between citizens and policy-makers, and provide a vehicle through which the public are able to exert a degree of influence in political affairs. This is particularly the case in post-communist societies, where the new political regimes have limited experience in the art of government. In both types of society however, there is a tendency towards manipulation of the public through opinion polling, in that the data are not so much used for the purpose of incorporating public views into the policy-making process, but rather to set agendas, and as sources of political intelligence through which to develop strategies designed to gain political power and influence. These findings relate to a theoretical understanding of the locus of power in competitive democracies. They suggest that although polls perform a useful channel of popular input into political affairs, ultimately dominant elites continue to wield power in society; by contrast, there is little evidence that polls have shifted political power to the mass of citizens.

Furthermore, the processes of restructuring which are currently taking place in advanced capitalist and post-communist political systems are such that pollsters are confronted with a series of contextual issues which are combining to undermine their ability to accurately measure popular needs and aspirations within contemporary societies. Pollsters will therefore need to re-appraise their methodologies and techniques in the new context of Complex Politics.

Chapter Plan

To address these issues, it is necessary to clarify the scope for, development, status and role of political opinion polling in contemporary societies. In order to do so, an appreciation of the social, economic, political and cultural restructuring which such societies are undergoing is essential. With this in mind, an organising framework is established which focuses on various elements of political systems which are likely to impinge upon the political opinion polling process. Chapters 2,3 and 4 attempt to do this. Chapter 2 considers the debate concerning the role of opinion polls as agents of democracy. The focus is such that it provides an indication of the extent to which polls have the capacity either to improve or impede democratic processes in contemporary societies. Chapters 3 and 4 then distinguish three polling contexts: capitalist, communist and post-communist. It is possible to identify from these three categories a context for polling which is defined as Complex Politics. This incorporates polling contexts in both latecapitalism and post-communism. It is important to state here that the term Complex Politics does not refer to some new phase in the evolution of contemporary societies. Instead, it is intended as a means of articulating processes of change and restructuring in late-capitalist and post-communist societies which relate to political opinion polling. Consequently, Complex Politics is a context for polling, and it is proposed only insofar as it helps us to gain an insight as to the scope for, and ability of political opinion polling in the various shifting political environments of contemporary societies.

Later chapters attempt to provide analyses of the contemporary political landscapes in these Complex Politics societies. Chapters 5 to 7 concentrate on polling in capitalist societies, with an emphasis on Britain. Chapter 5 traces the emergence of opinion polling, focusing on the relationships with the mass media, political parties, and other client agencies. Chapter 6 looks at polling in the context of a transforming British political system. Focusing primarily on electoral politics, it surveys the relative political stability of the 1950s and 1960s and compares this with the re-structuring of later years - the emergence of new political parties and movements, and the alleged break-up of the class-party alliances. In doing so, the discussion explores contemporary theories of voting behaviour and considers the implications they hold for pollsters in terms of the design of political opinion surveys, and in particular of data collection techniques. The implications for these developments are discussed in relation to opinion polling in chapter 7. Here, opinion polling throughout the late-capitalist world is reviewed - Western Europe, the USA, and Australasia - particularly in terms of the performance of polls in some recent elections.

Chapters 8 to 10 examine opinion polling in Central and Eastern Europe. They provide a comparative context by focusing on similar issues to those provided in the previous chapters. This section incorporates material gathered via a postal questionnaire sent out to pollsters in nine countries during 1990-1993, and from qualitative interviews held with pollsters and their clients in Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia during 1991, and in Romania and Bulgaria in 1995.¹ The chapter considers the tasks and problems posed for pollsters in post-communist societies. These include issues such as variable and unpredictable public participation in opinion polls, as well as logistical and methodological problems. It also analyses the structural changes which are taking place in these transitional societies, and the impact they are having on political opinion polling. It explores the fragmentation of societies into new socio-economic groups, electoral volatility, and the general polarisation and atomisation of public opinion. Together with the emergence of a complex and undefined party system, it is argued that these factors combine to create a political landscape which is hard to quantify in the opinion polls, particularly in the field of electoral forecasting.

In the conclusion, the key tendencies which relate to polling in both latecapitalist and post-communist societies are reviewed. This serves as a framework for the analysis of the role of opinion polls in contemporary societies, and the degree to which they are both a function of political liberalisation processes as well as facilitators of democratic practice. The conclusion then highlights areas for further research suggested by this book.

Countries Chosen for Analysis

The analyses of the role, status and functions of political opinion polling in this book are confined primarily to capitalist and post-communist contexts, and are based largely upon case studies. To represent post-communist political systems which have developed from their communist roots, there will be a focus on the former Soviet Union, Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Hungary and the former Czechoslovakia. As an example of a capitalist political system, there will be a focus on Britain, although polling developments elsewhere in Europe, the USA, and Australasia will be referred to. The inference here is that where political landscapes are complex, such as in late-capitalist and post-communist political systems, then pollsters will confront a number of problematic factors which will combine to make their tasks increasingly arduous. At the same time, where political landscapes are less complex, then the problems for opinion pollsters will be less defined. Britain is regarded as a critical methodological case here to test the shift toward Complex Politics in late-capitalist societies. According to Almond and Verba, it came closest to their conception of the ideal 'civic culture' in the 1950s and 1960s. They suggested that there was a higli degree of political consensus relating to the post-war British state and its system of government, a strong sense of deference to political authority, and significant trust and confidence in Britain's political institutions and political arrangements (Almond and Verba, 1963, pp.197-198). Furthermore, it can be argued that traditionally Britain has had a comparatively stable, majoritarian system, with a limited number of well-established parties competing for governmental office and forming traditional alliances with blocs of voters. Indeed, Britain possessed, certainly up until the early 1970s, one of the most stable and enduring political systems within the advanced capitalist world (Crewe, 1977). At the heart of this stability, was the largely homogenous nature of society, with cleavages which were based predominantly on social class lines underpinning party-voter alliances. Finally, Britain has always been more tolerant of polls than many of its capitalist counterparts, such as Spain, Portugal, Italy, Belgium, France, Switzerland, Germany and others where polling is either banned at particular times within the electoral cycle, or else subject to external regulation.

Consequently, if Britain's political landscape begins to display features similar to those found in the post-communist societies, then it can be assumed that those other European capitalist political systems whose political landscapes are more complex historically than Britain's, are likely to undergo such changes more rapidly. The implications are that, if the developing processes of political complexity serve to undermine the ability of pollsters to effectively carry out their tasks in Britain in ways which reflect the situation in the post-communist political systems, then the situation will be more critical for Britain's more complex late-capitalist neighbours in Western Europe, Such developments may precipitate the need to reappraise methodological techniques, and develop new styles of measuring public opinion so as to prepare for these shifts toward more complex political landscapes throughout Europe. The analysis of polling in post-Second World War capitalist and post-communist societies which follows will give an indication of these developments and the likely scenarios for political opinion polling in the future in a variety of European contexts.

Notes

1. Full details of the methodology used for this study can be found in the appendix.

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• Dedication
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• List of Tables
• Preface
• Acknowledgements
• 1 Introduction
• 2 Opinion Polls, Power and Democracy
• 3 The Comparative Context of Opinion Polling
• 4 Opinion Polling and Complex Politics
• 5 The Development of Opinion Polling in Capitalist Societies: Britain
• 6 Complex Politics and Opinion Polling in Late-Capitalist Britain
• 7 Polling Performance in Late-Capitalist Societies
• 8 Opinion Polling in Central and Eastern Europe under Communism
• 9 Complex Politics and Opinion Polling in Post-Communist Societies
• 10 Methods and Issues in Polling Post-Communist Societies
• 11 Conclusion
• Appendix: Methodology for the Study of Opinion Polling in Central and Eastern Europe
• Bibliography
• Index