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Part I
Setting the stage
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1 Introduction
Susanne Hanger-Kopp, Jenny Lieu, and Alexandros Nikas
In this book, we tell stories of low-carbon transitions â which are almost always also energy transitions â as a means to illustrate associated risks and uncertainties. Stories or narratives are descriptive, non-technical accounts of work that goes beyond single academic disciplines, highlighting the perspectives of the stakeholder groups involved. They allow for a thorough qualitative account of case-specific detail with respect to policy and governance processes and stakeholder perceptions, which are important for understanding both transitions and the risks and uncertainties associated with and inherent in these transitions. They allow for a comprehensive inter- and transdisciplinary view of risks and uncertainties, which is critical for enhancing risk governance. Finally, they allow for a writing style accessible to a wider, non-academic audience, which is particularly important for informing policymaking processes.1
Most recently, storytelling found its way into international policy processes. The Talanoa Dialogue, introduced at the 21st Conference of the Parties (UNFCCC, 2015), aims at sharing stories and building empathy and trust. Talanoa is a tradition of inclusive, participatory, and transparent dialogue from the South Pacific. Such a process enables participants to advance knowledge through common understanding and prospectively contributes to better collective decision making that advances the global decarbonisation and adaptation agenda (UNFCCC, 2016). Where are we? Where do we want to go? And how do we get there? These are the key questions structuring the dialogue, essentially leading to narratives about low-carbon transitions.
These transitions are essential to achieve decarbonisation and combat climate change but come with a host of associated risks and uncertainties. As a key element in each of the narratives presented in this book, transition pathways describe what the world should look like over time for realising a common goal. Said descriptions can include, but are not limited to, technological choices, institutional set-ups, and drivers for behavioural and infrastructure changes. Aiming at a low-carbon future, such pathways include global agreements and climate targets, national strategies and emission targets, as well as concrete policy instruments to implement them. These in turn rely on resource allocations and investments, as well as behavioural change at both organisational and individual levels. Such pathways are not forecasts but represent deliberately defined cases of past, present, and future system development. They allow useful exploration of, and learning from, states of the world, given that their narratives are salient, credible, and legitimate (Cash et al. 2003, Rounsevell and Metzger, 2010).
The narratives in this book have been developed through the work of the EU Horizon 2020-funded TRANSrisk project. They refer to national and subnational levels but are considered in the broader context of global climate change and decarbonisation governance. Globally, the Paris Agreement constitutes the most important overarching aim for low-carbon transitions. It is a high-level legal framework attempting to pave the way for global low-carbon and resilient development. The agreementâs binding nature is weakened by the absence of sanctions, its non-punitive, non-adversarial design, and the lack of clear implementation policies. Its key elements are the organisation of the contributions in terms of emission reductions by the parties; the relationships and transactions between developed, developing, and least developed countries; and funding mechanisms to realise actions. The Paris Agreement addresses both mitigation and adaptation concerns â with respective implications for and explicit focus on finance, technology transfer, and capacity building â and most recently also considerations for loss and damage. With respect to mitigation, the most surprising outcome of the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP) was the introduction of the new, highly ambitious mitigation target aiming to limit temperature rise to below 1.5°C. Although the target of 2°C remains part of the agreement as the upper limit temperature target, this implies a radical redefinition of low-carbon pathways as discussed, analysed, and assessed up until 2015.
Partiesâ contributions to the agreement are embodied in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Based on the agreement and the newly introduced stocktaking mechanism, each party prepares, communicates, and maintains their NDCs autonomously, taking full responsibility for their implementation while respecting the principles of environmental integrity, transparency, accuracy, completeness, comparability, and consistency. The Paris Agreement, however, does not provide procedures and methodologies for the determination of NDCs. This means that, ultimately, any specific action towards the targets of the Paris Agreement is the responsibility of individual countries.
The EU as a unique regional player for climate governance
Among the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the European Union (EU) is the only supranational body, which provides another level of coordination and legislation. Indeed, the EU acts as a single party in international climate change negotiations, adding to the levels at which EU progress must be monitored: community and member state. Three main strategies are at the heart of the EUâs decarbonisation policy: the 2020 climate and energy package; the 2030 climate and energy framework; and the 2050 low-carbon economy roadmap.
The 2020 climate and energy package is binding legislation to ensure that the Union meets its climate and energy targets for the year 2020. It sets out the 20-20-20 targets, i.e. a 20% cut in greenhouse gas emissions (from 1990 levels), a 20% share of EU energy from renewables, and a 20% improvement in energy efficiency.
The 2030 climate and energy framework also includes three key targets: a 40% cut in greenhouse gas emissions (from 1990 levels), a 27% share of EU energy from renewables, and a 27% improvement in energy efficiency.
Finally, the 2050 low-carbon economy roadmap represents the EUâs long-term vision towards a âvirtually zeroâ emissions society. The roadmap is solely focused on cutting emissions, aiming at an aggregate reduction of 80% (from 1990 levels) and an intermediate target of 60% by 2040. The 2050 low-carbon economy currently represents a mere âstatementâ and most of its framework is still under development.
In light of the Paris Agreement and the challenging actions it entails, the European Commission (EC) is presently updating its long-term decarbonisation strategies for 2050 and beyond, and is seeking public consultation in the revision process. The new strategy will need to consider how the EU can meet the ambitious 1.5°C target, which has not yet been reflected in its current climate policies.
EU targets provide an important indicative framework, but the Emissions Trading System (ETS), as a market instrument, and regulatory instruments, such as the Renewable Energy Directive, more concretely structure the Unionâs pathway towards a low-carbon future. Whereas the ETS applies one instrument across the EU, community regulations acknowledge the needs for tailored strategies in each member state.
The national, subnational, and local pathways needed to achieve these international and national decarbonisation targets are much more complex than international agreements let on. Indeed, any such high-level policies are not meaningful if lower-level contexts are insufficiently understood. Top-down approaches, in terms of both policy choices and policy analysis, insufficiently reflect the realities on the ground. They should be complemented by bottom-up approaches that consider the unique circumstances of a varied group of stakeholders â particularly in order to understand barriers to the implementation of relevant policy choices, as well as their potential negative consequences and positive side effects. Fully understanding such risks and respective opportunities requires a diverse and flexible set of methods, and deep involvement of stakeholders. This is because a risk is not only context dependent but also largely depends on its perception, i.e. the eye of the beholder. Risk categories drawn from a single discipline therefore only constitute a limited subset of possible risks. These are often risks for which data is available and can therefore be quantified in terms of mathematical probabilities or variance. However, because they neglect risks that cannot be grasped by computable data, they may not be able to provide a complete picture for decision making or may insufficiently explain decisions made.
This book attempts to illustrate the diverse set of risks and uncertainties â both quantifiable and non-quantifiable â associated with low-carbon transition pathways, and thus contribute to informed decision making and improved risk management. This is particularly important considering the need for a transparent and sustainable decision-making process that leads to socially just and legitimate outcomes that are also politically and economically acceptable.
Following this introduction, Chapter 2 provides the conceptual background for our understanding of risks and uncertainties. This framing is innovative in its simplicity and its interdisciplinary, cross-thematic applicability. It is necessary to understand some of the terminology in the narrative chapters, but not an essential read to understand the main messages conveyed. Our framing of risk and uncertainty builds on the premise that risks are always context specific, perhaps more so than the transition pathways with which they are associated, and that risk perception plays a key role in understanding, communicating, and mitigating risks. It is therefore important that we use clear and complete descriptions of the risks we talk about.
In Chapters 3â13 we introduce transition pathways from countries across the globe, which derived from research processes integrating socio-economic modelling and stakeholder engagement efforts. The narratives presented here do not cover all possible contexts exhaustively, but rather attempt to present a broad range of pathways demonstrating the variety of actions needed at various levels within different cultural contexts, in order to deliver on the decarbonisation objectives of the Paris Agreement. Indeed, every country, every sub-national region even, will have specificities that make it unique. We thus attempt to achieve diversity in terms of political setting, socio-economic context, main levels of governance, and technological innovation systems.
Each narrative provides the relevant context to understand the current state of policy in the specific area discussed (âWhere are we?â), the respective aims for the sector (âWhere do we want to go?â), and the risks and uncertainties associated with the policy choices that could get us there (âHow do we get there?â). The inter- and transdisciplinary methods used to obtain these narratives are kept short and distinct from the main narratives themselves, in order to create a more fluent reading experience. The respective detailed methodological descriptions can be found elsewhere for further consultation.
The 11 narratives are organised into four Parts that represent four main themes: (1) pathways for the transition of large-scale incumbent industry systems; (2) pathways towards renewable electricity systems; (3) pathways for energy efficiency in the building sector; and (4) pathways focusing on renewable energy technologies at household and community levels. The themes indicate the main level of analysis, but all consider (inter)action at multiple scales of governance, particularly with respect to risk perception of relevant stakeholders. As we will see in the next few paragraphs, some narratives fit more than one thematic description.
Under the first theme (Part II), we explore pathways for the transition of incumbent large-scale technology systems in Austria (Chapter 3), Canada (Chapter 4), and the United Kingdom (UK) (Chapter 5). Many countries across the globe still have dominant incumbent industries at the heart of their markets, which are strongly rooted in society and provide employment to large numbers of people. They can prove difficult to touch for politicians. Apart from the cases described here, this is, for example, the case with countries that invest heavily in fossil fuels, such as Poland (coal), Australia (coal), and Brazil (oil). Subjecting such industries to major changes with many associated uncertainties is economically and politically difficult. However, many of these industries are major contributors to climate change. They have also reached their limits with respect to incremental emission reductions, such as increasing efficiency. If they want to play a role in a low-carbon future, they face more fundamental changes, such as replacing coal as the major source of energy in the steel-making process.
In this book, we describe three large-scale industrial pathways and their associated risks and uncertainties. For Austria, we focus on energy supply for the iron and steel sector. For Canada, we discuss the Alberta oil sands, including the Athabasca oil sands from the perspective of the Indigenous people affected. For the UK, we examine the expansion of the nuclear power sector, which is a realistic option, vis-Ă -vis a nuclear phase out in favour of renewables. Kenya and Indonesia, featured in Part V, also illustrate regional and national technological lock-ins, complementary to local-level transitions. Both countries currently rely heavily on coal and oil for electricity production. In Indonesia one replacement for fossil fuels is biogas-for-electricity production, whereas Kenya has large geothermal resources as an opportunity to replace fossil energy.
The second theme (Part III) includes pathways towards renewable electricity systems in Chile (Chapter 6), the Netherlands (Chapter 7), Spain (Chapter 8), and Switzerland (Chapter 9). Solar power technologies have developed with incredible speed over the past two decades, with solar photovoltaics (PV) in particular becoming a competitive alternative to fossil fuels. As a standalone technology, or in combination with wind power, it has become an integral part of most national energy strategies. However, a range of barriers may still hinder successful implementation, and potential negative consequences resulting from implementation at scale are still insufficiently understood. In this book, we discuss the risks and uncertainties of transitioning to a solar-based electricity system for Chile, considering particularly its potential effect on energy poverty. The Netherlandsâ narrative includes the development of solar power and explores two alternative pathways, one centred on a large-scale solar parks, the other on small-scale rooftop installations. The Spanish case study offers lessons learned from the past: as a frontrunner in solar power technology and other renewable energy, the country was also among the first ...
