Global Power Transition and the Future of the European Union
eBook - ePub

Global Power Transition and the Future of the European Union

  1. 126 pages
  2. English
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eBook - ePub

Global Power Transition and the Future of the European Union

About this book

Today, the European Union faces challenges that threaten not only internal cohesion but also its position in the global system. This book is about the future of the EU in the light of global power transition taking place in the twenty-first century and demonstrates how its future rests on a delicate balance between policy challenge, member states' interests, and convergence or divergence of societal values across its peoples.

The book examines factors behind the decline of the EU relative to the rise of China and other powers in the global hierarchy and what policy options are available for EU leaders to implement in order to compete as a global actor. It analyses determinants of regional integration and key policy challenges the EU faces in its quest for an "ever deeper union," and identifies significant factors (i.e., power relations, economic relations, emergent social values across the EU) that can explain the likelihood of further integration or conflict between EU member states.

This text will be essential reading for scholars, students, and practitioners interested in European Union politics international relations, security studies, and comparative politics.

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Information

Publisher
Routledge
Year
2017
Print ISBN
9781138283497
eBook ISBN
9781351981422

1 Introduction

The European Union (EU) represents the most successful and complex form of regional economic and political integration among sovereign member states. Starting in 1952, as the small and limited European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) of Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands, it moved forward with two parallel policies of deepening of integration and enlargement to become a complex union of 28 member states. Through the Copenhagen criteria, the EU is open to any European country that is stable, has a free market, supports liberal democracy, respects the rule of law, implements and enforces human rights, and accepts all obligations provided by previously agreed law. Throughout its history, the EU has followed a continuing, though irregular, course of integration, allowing different levels of integration among its members. Of the 28 members, 19 nations have adopted the euro and the majority of the remaining ones are expected to do likewise. The result is a two-track economic union where the larger and more integrated Economic and Monetary Union (EMU or Eurozone) coexists with the smaller and less incorporated non-Eurozone EU.
Going beyond nation-state sovereignty, members developed an integration path that is strictly economic in nature, yet also incorporates varying levels of political integration. Each integrative step brought institutional changes that comprise the principles of intergovernmentalism and supranationalism. As with the level of integration, enlargement of the EU has also not been smooth and has had some reversals. Switzerland and Norway applied for membership but did not join owing to opposition from voters. Morocco applied, and was rejected as it is not a European country. Francisco Franco’s Spain was also not accepted into the fold at its first application because it was not a functioning democracy. Turkey’s membership application and subsequent accession talks have gone on for many years and are now stalled. Denmark and Sweden have not moved to adopt the euro even though new Eastern European members seem set to do so. Outright dissolution also took place. Greenland and the Netherlands Antilles dropped their respective EU membership when they achieved self-rule from their home countries. The result of the British referendum on EU membership (Brexit) will lead to the first large devolution of the EU even though, notably, it will not reduce the membership size of the Eurozone. Generally, members of the EMU have been more firmly committed to the EU than their non-Eurozone counterparts.
In sum, the EU has gone very far, farther than most. The question for integration scholars is, how did a set of warring countries merge their destinies, especially in light of widespread skepticism? What conditions provided the fertile environment for such a project to flourish? In addition, can these conditions help us predict how the EU will continue on its path? Or will the seemingly interconnected challenges currently in play lead to retrenchment or perhaps disillusionment? This book sets out to answer these questions by first developing a theory of integration using a power transition perspective. Although power transition’s long legacy has been in explaining conflict, we will show how its ideas can also explain cooperation as deep as regional integration. In addition, we will add to the perspective’s explanatory power by including societal values and political trust. We continue our introduction by providing a short outline of the major events that moved the European integration agenda forward. We then briefly describe the EU’s current existential crisis. We finish the chapter by introducing our theoretical explanation.

The EU through time

What we now call the European Union grew out of the ashes of World War II. The level of death and destruction during the battles between opposing ideological forces had never before been recorded in human history. Famine and disease existed in large stretches of continental ruin. It is estimated that 39 million Europeans lost their lives and many of those who survived carried their wounds into old age.1 On top of the trauma that war produces, the world witnessed how some members of our species can attempt to systematically annihilate other members, thereby introducing the term “crimes against humanity” into our vernacular. In an attempt to produce a working system of peace,2 the political elite started Europe down the path of integration.
Under a reality of what seemed like new battle lines being drawn between the US and the Soviet Union, a French businessman, Jean Monnet, and the French Foreign Minister, Robert Schuman, began steps to forge a new level of cooperation centered on French and German reconciliation. The first step was the uniting of their coal and steel productions under a single supranational authority. The Schuman Declaration would soon produce the ECSC among the original six member states. The new regional organization included institutions that would evolve into the current EU institutions: the High Authority would develop into the European Commission, the Common Assembly is the predecessor of the European Parliament, the Special Council of Ministers would become the Council of the European Union, and the Court of Justice would later be the Court of Justice of the European Union.
In just five short years after the founding of the ECSC, the six decided to take a step further and began the creation of a common market through the signing and ratification of the Treaty of Rome, which created the European Economic Community (EEC). Ultimately, the common market would allow the free movement of people, goods, services, and investment. The goal was to create a single market where individuals can seek out and take advantage of economic opportunities without being barred due to national citizenship. At the start of this process, the treaty required the member states to establish a customs union. The resulting common tariff policy on all products and services external to Europe began ahead of schedule in 1968.
The treaty also established the previously mentioned EU institutions as well as the European Council, which includes the heads of state or government of the member states. Also important to note is the first steps towards a common fiscal arrangement through the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The CAP provides subsidies to the farming sector from a common pool of moneys drawn from the member states. It would be possible, under this policy, for a member state to receive more than it contributed and vice versa. Although the funding of the CAP had consumed the majority of all EU expenditures in the past, reforms enacted in 2013, which came or will come into force between 2014 and 2020, will reduce its budgetary impact.3
The 1970s saw a few major events that were critical for the advancement of European integration. The European Parliament (EP) was given more legislative authority and at the end of the decade voters for the first time could directly elect their members of parliament. Another change was the first enlargement of the EEC to include Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. Ironically, this enlargement introduced two member states (Denmark and the UK) that would distance themselves from another critical event: laying down the foundation of the single currency.
In 1972, the original six established the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) or currency snake, which was a commitment to limit their margin of currency fluctuation to 2.25 percent.4 The Werner committee report outlined this as the first of many steps towards completing a monetary union by 1980.5 However, as a result of economic recession and the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, many of the six could not maintain their commitments. The fallout settled into a Deutsche mark zone in northwestern Europe, which would later be important for the future of the single currency.
The economic downturns and the problems with the ERM caused some soul searching in the following decade among the EU political elite. In addition to admitting three new members (Greece in 1981 and Spain and Portugal in 1986), they negotiated and ratified the Single European Act (SEA) in 1986. The SEA began a six-year voyage to harmonize national regulations so that the goal of total free trade of goods and services would be achieved by removing these non-tariff barriers. The SEA also gave the European Parliament more legislative powers and the EU more say in developing regional environmental protections.
The start of the 1990s was a new world for Europe. The disintegration of the Soviet Union, fall of the Eastern European communist states, and reunification of Germany transformed what was once a decades-long security threat into an opportunity to truly create a working peace system. However, continental peace would need to wait a few more years until the violent breakup of Yugoslavia was settled. The trinity of concerns – the economic collapse in the east, massive numbers of refugees escaping war in the Balkans, and the war itself – was the backdrop for a major push to further unite Europe. The EU completed the common market in 1993 and expanded its membership in 1995 (Austria, Finland, and Sweden). The completion of the common market set the stage for the next large step for integration: the 1993 Treaty on European Union (Maastricht).
Maastricht set up steps towards greater economic integration, as well as the hope for a greater single voice in foreign and security affairs and the harmonization of domestic laws. These items were referred to as the three pillars of the EU. The hallmark of the first pillar would be the creation of the single currency, the euro. The groundwork was already laid down by a restart of the monetary snake in 1979, the European Monetary System (EMS). Not wanting to repeat the problems of the older ERM, leaders created an artificial currency called the European Currency Unit (ECU) that all national currencies would fluctuate around by a margin of no more than 2.25 percent, except for Italy which was allowed a 6 percent fluctuation. The newer ERM would not, however, be centered on purely national responsibility like the old one. Since the ECU’s value was determined by a basket of member states’ national currencies, coordinated interventions in the ECU’s value would prevent states from falling out the 2.25 percent rule. The EMS was successfully maintained in the face of major economic problems including economic recessions in the 1980s. Thanks to the strong monetary policies of Germany, the ECU had a strong anchor with the mark, so much so that French President François Mitterrand adopted the franc fort policy which strongly aligned his country’s currency to the mark.6 After more rounds of negotiations associated with the establishment of the European Central Bank, policies regarding individual member states’ fiscal responsibilities, and how to progress towards, first, a fixed exchange rate for all currencies, the euro was born, in virtual form, in 1999. It entered into circulation in 2002.
Another major step in integration was the establishment of borderless travel through the Schengen Agreement. The agreement went into effect in early 1995 among a subset of countries: Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain. This allowed for even free movement since people and products no longer had to wait at border checks. The reduction of time saved money and thereby removed yet another non-tariff barrier. The ease of travel also aimed to instill in the younger, more mobile citizenry the idea that they were Europeans, with all the legal rights, benefits, and opportunities integration had to offer. Uncontrolled mobility also symbolized that security was becoming more of a common good that would be regionally guaranteed. By opening up borders, member states trusted that their fellow partners would successfully regulate nefarious activities in their domestic arenas.
The start of the twenty-first century held promise for European integration given the major advancements in the 1990s. Membership expanded in 2004 to include Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. This was the largest expansion in the EU’s history and included former security rivals, including states that were once part of the Soviet Union. The EU further expanded in 2007 with the admission of Bulgaria and Romania and then again in 2013 when Croatia joined. However, all was not well. As supranational institutions increased their powers through multiple treaties (many of which are mentioned in this introduction), voices started to speak out against the lack of public accountability. What was assumed by many in the political elite to be a “permissive consensus” among the public was turning into the democratic deficit critique.7 In addition, European integrationists felt that Maastricht had not progressed as much as hoped for, especially the second and third pillars.
To remedy these problems, a European Constitutional Convention was created to draft what would later become the Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe. The treaty would have produced dramatic changes to the governing supranational institutions and would clearly move the EU into a political union. The final version of the Constitutional Treaty was agreed to in 2004, but could only go into effect if all the member states, using their varying individual constitutional processes, ratified it. While those that chose to ratify the treaty using parliamentary means passed it, the death blow came when first the French and then the Dutch voters rejected it by referendum in 2005. Since the treaty lacked unanimity, the idea of a political union was sidelined.
In the aftermath, the EU completed the negotiations for the Treaty of Lisbon in 2007, which came into force at the end of 2009. Lisbon attempted to salvage some components of the Constitutional Treaty. One was the creation of the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, which would oversee the development of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) in partnership with the Council of the EU (formally the Council of Ministers) and the European Council. In addition, the High Representative heads the European Defence Agency and the European External Action Service. This advancement in external affairs gives the EU a legal entity, which allows it to participate in international negotiations and be the sole signature on treaties associated with security. Lisbon provided the EU the legal ability to form a CFSP in an intergovernmental fashion, not a supranational one. In other words, the member states themselves still have an important say in what the CFSP will and will not include, so it is not in the hands of an executive decision-maker. Finally, the treaty includes a common security and defense policy with a mutual defense clause: member states are now required to provide military assistance if another member is under attack.
Lisbon also attempted to address the “democratic deficit.” First, the treaty elevates the Charter of Fundamental Rights to the level of the EU treaties and is thus legally binding on all members. Second is the considerable increase in powers of the European Parliament. The EP’s legitimacy was transformed as it changed from an entity representing citizens of member states to one representing the citizens of the EU, thereby bypassing ...

Table of contents

  1. Cover
  2. Half Title
  3. Title Page
  4. Copyright Page
  5. Dedication
  6. Table of Contents
  7. List of figures
  8. List of tables
  9. Preface and acknowledgements
  10. 1 Introduction
  11. 2 Power transition and regional integration
  12. 3 Challenges facing the European Union
  13. 4 Determinants of EU integration
  14. 5 How does the future look for the EU?
  15. 6 Conclusions
  16. Bibliography
  17. Index

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