Routledge Revivals: Kyoto Protocol (1999)

A Guide and Assessment

Michael Grubb, Christiaan Vrolijk, Duncan Brack

• Publisher: Taylor & Francis
• Year: 2018
• Print ISBN: 9781138506046
• eBook ISBN: 9781351377911
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Biological Sciences
• Subtopic: Ecology
• Index: Biological Sciences

Originally published in 1999, The Kyoto Protocol provides a detailed discussion on the history, terms and implications of the Kyoto Protocol 1997. It explains the meaning of provision on emissions trading and other flexibility mechanisms, and provides a quantitative analysis using the Energy and Environment Programme's emissions trading model. It also contains the full text of the Kyoto Protocol and developments at the 4th Conference of the Parties in December 1998. This book will be of interest to academics working in the field of climate change, as well as the broader area of environment and sustainability.

Part I

The making of the Protocol

Chapter 1

Analytic foundations: science, response options and the IPCC

The climate is changing. Ten years ago, that was a very controversial claim. Now it is widely accepted that changes are being observed, that human emissions of greenhouse gases are a cause, and that such emissions will lead to far greater climatic changes during the coming century. In 1990, governments began to negotiate on what to do about it, and in the mid-1990s they started to debate more substantive commitments.

The result of the frenzied international negotiations that followed was the Kyoto Protocol, which sets specific binding targets for emissions of greenhouse gases from industrialized countries, together with an array of complex mechanisms to give flexibility in how they are implemented and to assist global efforts towards more sustainable development.

The negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol followed decades of scientific research and many years of economic and policy analysis. This first chapter sets out that background, and summarizes more recent scientific developments. The other chapters in Part I of this book describe the political background and negotiations themselves, and the Protocol that emerged from them. Part II then examines the import of what was agreed.

1.1 Origins and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The ‘greenhouse effect’ is not a new concern. As early as 1827 the French scientist Fourier suggested that the earth’s atmosphere warms the surface by letting through high-energy solar radiation but trapping part of the longer-wave heat radiation coming back from the surface. This is caused by a number of ‘greenhouse gases’, notably carbon dioxide and water vapour. At the end of the nineteenth century the Swedish scientist Arrhenius postulated that the growing volume of carbon dioxide emitted by the factories of the Industrial Revolution was changing the composition of the atmosphere, increasing the proportion of greenhouse gases, and that this would cause the earth’s surface temperature to rise.

The subject attracted little interest until the late 1950s, but in 1957 the International Geophysical Year provided the foundations for a global scientific community dedicated to understanding planetary processes and human influence on them, and established a network of monitoring stations. Observations immediately began to trace a steady rise in the concentration of carbon dioxide. A decade later, a study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) documented concerns about possible climate change, and by 1970 the Secretary General of the United Nations was sufficiently concerned to mention the possibility of a ‘catastrophic warming effect’ in his report on the environment.

The first World Climate Conference, in 1979, established the World Climate Research Programme that helped to stimulate and focus further research. During the 1980s the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) convened a series of international scientific workshops around which coalesced a tentative scientific consensus on the nature of the problem. Driven also by rising popular concern about environmental issues, during 1988 a series of international meetings culminated in the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), under the auspices of UNEP and the WMO. Although led initially mostly by the industrialized countries, all governments were invited to join and the IPCC has expanded over subsequent years to almost global participation. It is the reports of the Panel that provide the scientific underpinning for the diplomatic processes of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.¹

The purpose of the IPCC is to provide authoritative assessments to governments of the state of knowledge concerning climate change. In the ten years since it was established, it has evolved into what is probably the most extensive and carefully constructed intergovernmental advisory process ever known in international relations. Governments nominate experts with an established record of research and publication on relevant topics. From these, writing teams within each of three working groups are selected by the bureau of governmental representatives for their level and breadth of expertise, range of views and geographical balance. The texts they produce are subjected to widespread peer review involving hundreds of individuals and groups world-wide.

Each working group produces a Summary for Policymakers, and the IPCC plenary meeting agrees a Synthesis Report. Since this represents a statement of what governments officially accept as a balanced account of the state of knowledge and reasoned judgment, its precise wording is subject to intensive negotiation between governmental delegations. The full assessment reports remain, however, the responsibility of the appointed authors, and the IPCC itself is precluded from making policy recommendations. Its purpose is to establish the basis of internationally accepted knowledge upon which other forums can base their negotiations and conclusions.

There are many guides to the science of climate change, including a book by the chairman of the scientific working group of the IPCC, Sir John Houghton.² No attempt is made here to duplicate discussion of the various scientific debates. Rather, the main part of this chapter summarizes the findings of the IPCC that have been accepted by governments worldwide as the analytic basis upon which rest the world’s efforts to address climate change. The final sections outline some of the core debates and criticisms, and more recent developments.

1.2 Scientific foundations and the First Assessment Report of the IPCC

The IPCC produced its first report in 1990. The findings of Working Group I (science) probably had the greatest impact, with its key conclusion that rising concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were caused by human activities and would cause global temperatures to rise, with accompanying climatic changes. As the IPCC sought to explain, certain scientific fundamentals are undisputed. Greenhouse gases trap heat near the earth’s surface: the planet would be much colder without them. The concentration of greenhouse gases is rising, due primarily to human activities. That increase is likely to lead to general warming of the earth’s surface, though with important regional variations. These are the simple fundamentals on which all could agree.

Beyond that it gets more complex, principally because of the huge variety of additional influences upon the global atmosphere and temperature. These include natural feedbacks – changing global temperature itself changes the water cycle and associated cloud and ice cover, for example – and manifold extraneous influences, both natural (ocean current oscillations, sunspot changes) and human (sulphur and other emissions, and land-use changes). Disentangling these influences to predict the magnitude and consequences of human-induced climate change is a challenge of an altogether different order.

Nevertheless the IPCC, in its First Assessment Report conducted in little over a year, offered the central estimate that if greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise as projected, global average temperature would rise at around 0.3°C (±0.15°) per decade. This would be the fastest sustained, global rate seen for at least the past 10,000 years, and compares with a global average temperature difference of only 4–7°C between now and the last ice age. After a century or so, such warming would take the earth to temperatures beyond even the levels reached in the warm period before the last ice age, more than 100,000 years ago. The magnitude of the global warming seen to date was considered not inconsistent with predictions of climate models, but was rather lower and within the range of natural climate variability, so could not clearly be attributed to human activity.

Working Group II, which addressed the impacts of climate change, found widespread uncertainty and disagreement in its area. Sea-level rise (due primarily to thermal expansion of the oceans) and changes in rainfall patterns were expected to be major effects. The consequences for agriculture, wetlands, forest, coastlines and desertification could be significant, but the continuing high level of uncertainty, in particular about how climate would change locally, made it impossible to reach firm conclusions.

Working Group III, which reviewed potential responses to climate change, experienced substantial political disagreement over its deliberations. In the absence of any other policy forum, its report was subject to intense and highly politicized negotiations, in an atmosphere of widely diverging views over this relatively new issue. The outcome was a carefully hedged report whose one concrete recommendation was to start negotiations on a global agreement on climate change.

After considerable debate the assessment and recommendations were passed up to and accepted at the Second World Climate Conference in November 1990. The ministerial segment of that conference accepted the report and called upon the UN to open negotiations on what was to become the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN FCCC) (explained in Chapter 2).

Meanwhile, the IPCC embarked upon an update of specific aspects of the science and emission scenarios, published in 1992. Its plenary meeting in November 1992 reorganized the Panel to reflect the new context, including a recognition that the IPCC would have input into the Convention process, and an acceptance (albeit reluctant by some parties) that it could be allowed to examine issues of international economics. The meeting launched the IPCC towards producing a set of special reports in 1994 and, in parallel, the full Second Assessment Report, finally accepted in late 1995 and published in June 1996.

The Second Assessment Report (SAR) marked a crucial stage in the progress of global action to combat climate change. It is this second report, more than any other, that set the context for the negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol. Until the Panel produces its third assessment report (due in 2001), the SAR remains the most authoritative summary of the science of climate change.

1.3 Findings of the IPCC Second Assessment Report

The report’s main conclusions, as accepted by governments, were that:

• greenhouse gas concentrations have continued to increase as a result of human activities;

• global average temperature (and sea level) has risen, and recent years have been among the warmest since at least 1860;

• the ability of climate models to simulate observed events and trends has improved;

• the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate;

• on central emission projections, by the end of the twenty-first century global mean surface temperature is likely to rise by about 2°C, with a range of uncertainty of 1–3.5°C, and to continue rising for some decades thereafter even if greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized by then;

• sea level would rise, with a mid-range estimate of 50 cm by 2100 (range 15–95 cm), and would continue rising for centuries thereafter;

• significant ‘no regrets’ opportunities are available in most countries to limit emissions of greenhouse gases (below levels that would otherwise be achieved) at no net cost;

• the potential risk of damage from climate change is enough to justify action beyond such ‘no regrets’ measures.

These headline findings were supported by almost 2,000 pages of analysis. The remainder of this section explains the key findings and provides a brief guide to some of the underlying debates in the IPCC and their implications.

1.3.1 The science of climate change

The science report³ confirms that human activities are changing the atmospheric concentrations and distributions of greenhouse gases.

• Carbon dioxide had increased in concentration by nearly 30% from about 280 parts per million volume (ppmv) in pre-industrial times to 358 ppmv by 1994. It is the main anthropogenic greenhouse gas, projected to account for about 70% of the ‘radiative forcing’ of climate over the next century. The ‘carbon cycle’ is complex: some emissions are reabsorbed rapidly but much remains in the atmosphere for a hundred years or more. The main anthropogenic sources are fossil fuel combustion and land conversion, e.g. deforestation.

• Methane has more than doubled in concentration and on most criteria is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, but has a much shorter atmospheri...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Orignal Copyright
• Dedication
• Table of Contents
• Foreword
• Preface
• Acknowledgments
• About the authors
• Outline structure of Convention and Protocol
• Glossary
• Summary and conclusions
• Part I: The making of the Protocol
• Part II: Analysis of commitments, mechanisms and prospects
• Part III: Appendices
• Index