Contemporary Preventive Diplomacy

Bertrand G. Ramcharan, Bertrand Ramcharan

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2020
• Print ISBN: 9780367256227
• eBook ISBN: 9781000064322
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: Diplomacy & Treaties
• Index: Politics & International Relations

This book offers an explanation and evaluation of preventative diplomacy in an age of increasing precariousness. It emphasises the importance of pursuing diplomacy and human security in connection with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) which promote development grounded in peace, justice, and universal respect for human rights.

It explores and uncovers efforts to set up diplomatic channels designed to ensure relations between the great powers, intra- and inter-state conflict, terrorism and weapons of mass destruction, human rights, and the global watch over human security do not escalate out of control. Discussing evolving tensions between the United States and China, and the United States and Russia, this book recalls past examples of preventive diplomacy between them, and explores ideas for the exercise of preventive diplomacy in the future. Presenting evidence that contemporary preventive diplomacy is pursued not only by international or regional officials but also by nongovernmental organizations and individuals, the book emphasises the need to pursue and enhance a comprehensive effort to realize SDG16 and human security.

The book contains a range of practical recommendations to improve preventive diplomacy and provides a unique optic into understanding the threats facing the planet. It will be of interest to scholars and students of diplomacy, security studies, global governance and practitioners in government and international organisations.

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1 The United Nations

• Climate change

• Weapons of mass destruction

• Conflicts and violence

• Human rights

• SDG 16

• Conclusion

United Nations preventive diplomacy is inspiring in some instances, dynamic in areas such as climate change, original in providing peace and development advisers, persistent in the endeavors of its sub-regional centers for preventive diplomacy, inventive in the activities of its political department, frustrating in the recalcitrance of many governments (including great powers on the Security Council), and searing in its inability to prevent gross violations of human rights. Yet the purposes of the United Nations, as set out in the UN Charter and the General Assembly’s 1970 “Declaration on Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Cooperation among States,” are exactly to coordinate action to achieve common goals in these and other areas. See Box 1.1 below for details on the declaration.

Sustainable Development Goal 16 was meant to encourage a philosophy of development grounded in peace, justice, human rights, and inclusive, equitable, and strong societies, but it has so far not made its mark. In the midst of all of this, the UN secretary-general deploys his best endeavors, to the extent that political circumstances allow. Civil society is mobilizing to help protect the planet, and this is a new form of people-based preventive diplomacy.

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the UN secretary-general are the foremost practitioners of preventive diplomacy in the world today, dealing, as they do, with the gravest threat to humanity, providing international alerts and policy recommendations for action, and engaging more broadly in global advocacy for preventive and corrective actions. The work of the IPCC provides stunning evidence in support of the concept of contemporary preventive diplomacy presented in the Introduction to this book.

Box 1.1 The obligations of governments under the UN Charter

According to the very first article of the United Nations Charter, the purposes of the United Nations are, among others, to achieve international cooperation in solving international problems of an economic, social, cultural, or humanitarian character and in promoting and encouraging respect for human rights, and for fundamental freedoms for all without distinction as to race, language, sex, or religion and to be a center for harmonizing the action of nations in the attainment of these common ends. Article 55 of the UN Charter gives the organization a mandate to promote universal respect for and observance of human rights and fundamental freedoms for all. In Article 56, all members pledge themselves to take joint and separate action in cooperation with the UN for the achievement of the purposes set forth in the previous article.

In Resolution 26/25 (XXV) of October 24, 1970, the UN General Assembly adopted “the Declaration on Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Cooperation among States in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.”¹ This is considered a codification of the legal principles of the charter. In the declaration the General Assembly proclaimed that states have the duty to cooperate with one another, irrespective of the differences in their political, economic and social systems, in the various spheres of international relations in order to maintain international peace and security and to promote international stability and progress, the general welfare of nations, and international cooperation free from discrimination based on such differences.

Source: The author

Note

1 For the text of the declaration, see:
https://legal.un.org/avl/pdf/ha/dpilfrcscun/dpilfrcscun_ph_e.pdf.

This contemporary concept is much in evidence as the UN seeks to turn around the risks from climate change and weapons of mass destruction, to stem the tide of conflicts and violence, and to reduce gross violations of human rights. We discuss each of these areas in this chapter. As we will see, despite the best efforts of the UN secretary-general and the secretariat, the world organization continues to be constrained by its own governments—some powerful, some recalcitrant, many undemocratic, and many oppressive.

Climate change

In 2019, the IPCC published a Special Report on Climate Change and Land, authored by 107 experts from 52 countries. The report warned that the world’s land and water resources are being exploited at unprecedented rates, which, combined with climate change, is putting dire pressure on the ability of humanity to feed itself. This warning comes a year after the IPCC’s alarm-raising 1.5 degrees centigrade report, which found that the world needs to take urgent transformative action to avert the worst impacts of climate change beyond 1.5 degrees centigrade warming.¹

As the 2019 report notes, the window to address the threat from over-use of land and water resources is closing rapidly. A half-billion people already live in places that are turning into deserts, and soil is being lost at between 10 and 100 times faster than it is forming. A particular danger is that food crises may develop on several continents at once, according to Cynthia Rosenzweig, one of the report’s authors: “The potential risk of multi-breadbasket failure is increasing. All of these things are happening at the same time.”² If this is not preventive diplomacy, then what else is?

In September 2019, during the week of the UN Climate Action Summit, the IPCC released a report stating that sea-level rise is accelerating faster than scientists had predicted, putting hundreds of millions of people at risk.³ According to Nathan Bindoff of the University of Tasmania, one of the report’s authors: “Since 1993 the rate of warming of the global oceans has actually doubled—and the rate of warming is a contributor to the acceleration that we see in sea level rise.” As reported by another author, Hamish Pritchard of the British Antarctic Survey: “Megacities and low-lying Pacific islands are under threat. This will displace a lot of people.” With about 680 million people around the world living in low-lying areas, they could all be threatened by cyclonic winds, coastal erosion, flooding, and waves.⁴

As mentioned in the Introduction, global warming has made some wars more likely than they would otherwise have been and will make others more so in the future. Some experts already worry that the Arctic could be a flashpoint. As the icecaps shrink, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russia are currently bolstering their military presence there and China is building a nuclear-powered ice-breaker. Accidents can happen.

Accumulating greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme droughts and floods in some regions. Seasonal rains and monsoons are becoming more variable and less predictable. As one area grows parched, its inhabitants encroach on land traditionally farmed or used for grazing by others, leading to disputes, some of which are turning violent, especially in the Sahel. Environmental stress has already played a role in deadly conflicts in Burkina Faso, Chad, Cameroon, Mali, Niger, northern Nigeria, and South Sudan, as well as in states outside Africa such as Yemen.

Climate-induced war is a reason for governments to take global warming seriously. Since climate change will make some areas uninhabitable, many will migrate to towns or cities in their own country. Moving is a rational way to adapt to a changing environment. Governments should manage the influx, including by building roads and schools to accommodate the newcomers. Unless carefully managed, conflicts will ensue.⁵

In September 2019, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres convened a climate summit to bring world leaders, the private sector, and civil society together to support the multilateral process and to increase and accelerate climate action and ambition. The summit focused on key sectors where action could make the most difference—heavy industry, nature-based solutions, cities, energy resilience, and climate finance. World leaders reported on what they were doing and what more they intended to do by the time of the 2020 UN Climate Change Conference, where commitments are expected to be renewed and possibly increased.

Guterres had decided to call on world leaders to come to New York in view of the gravity of the situation of accelerating global emissions, with concrete, realistic plans to enhance their nationally-determined contributions by 2020, in line with reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 45 percent over the next decade, and to net zero emissions by 2050. Guterres acted because global emissions are reaching record levels and show no signs of peaking. The previous four years were the hottest on record, and winter temperatures in the Arctic had risen by 3°C since 1990. Sea levels are rising, coral reefs are dying, and the world is starting to see the life-threatening impact of climate change on health, through air pollution, heatwaves, and risks to food security. The impacts of climate change are being felt everywhere and are having very real consequences on people’s lives.⁶

The secretary-general’s special envoy for the 2019 Climate Action Summit, former Mexican diplomat Luis Alfonso de Alba, worked energetically to help ensure that the world had the tools, the vision, and the political will necessary to move forward on ambitious climate action for the benefit of all aspects of society. De Alba considered his task as being outreach to governments and the private sector, the raising of awareness, and “rais[ing] the level of the political discussion.” The world needs, he argues, “to have a common understanding on the benefits of acting quickly and in a coordinated manner. We need to develop a sense of collective responsibility because this is a problem that cannot be solved by one country alone.”⁷

Consequently, the summit brought together governments, the private sector, civil society, local authorities, and international organizations to develop ambitious solutions in six areas: a global transition to renewable energy, sustainable and resilient infrastructures and cities, sustainable agriculture, management of forests and oceans, resilience and adaptation to climate impacts, and alignment of public and private finances with a net “zero economy.”

The summit focused on nine interdependent tracks: (1) Enhancing climate mitigation of major emitting countries; (2) Social and political drivers, such as health, gender, and security; (3) Youth and public mobilization, streamlining youth participation across all related topics; (4) Energy transition, including boosting renewables, energy efficiency, and storage; (5) Industry transition, creating stronger commitment from emissions-heavy sectors such as steel and cement; (6) Infrastructure, cities and local action, to scale up ambitious commitments on low-emission and climate-resilient infrastructure; (7) Nature-based solutions, focusing on areas such as forests, smart agriculture, and oceans; (8) Resilience and adaptation, focusing on integrating climate risks into public and private decision-making; and (9) Climate finance and carbon-pricing, directing finance toward climate-resilient development.⁸

The summit saw the launch of several initiatives designed to boost nature-based solutions. These include a Global Campaign for Nature, which plans to conserve around 30 percent of the Earth’s lands and oceans by 2030; a High-Level Panel for the Sustainable Ocean Economy, which will work to build resilience for the ocean and marine-protected areas; a Central African Forest Initiative that aims to protect the region’s forest cover (which provides livelihoods for some 60 million people); and a Zero Carbon Building for All initiative aimed at making all buildings—new and existing—net zero carbon by 2050.

Also, as a result of the summit, some 2,000 cities have committed to placing climate risk at the center of their decision-making, planning, and investments. For example, tackling traffic congestion and pollution is the aim of the Action Towards Climate-Friendly Transport Initiative, which includes actions to plan city development in a way that minimizes travel, generates a shift from fossil-fueled vehicles to non-motorized and public transport, and increases the use of zero-emission technologies.⁹

It would be instructive at this point to take note of what the role has been of the Security Council, in theory the premier security organ of the UN. This is relevant to the submission we shall make in the concluding chapter that the world is now at a point when executive action will be needed to protect the earth and its inhabitants. The Security Council is the only organ in the UN with the authority to undertake such executive action. In recent years, the council has held debates on the topic of climate change, seeking to highlight the security risks from global warming and to generate international cooperation to contain and hopefully reverse them. Among other innovations has been the establishment, at the initiative of Germany, of a group of countries concerting their efforts on this problem.

The Security Council discussed climate change for the first time in April 2007. On that occasion views had been divided on whether this was a proper topic for the council. It next discussed the issue in July 2011. Again, views were divided. Related meetings were held in November 2011, July 2015, and November 2016. Some informal, “Arria-formula” meetings were also held in the intervening period.¹⁰

At the most recent Security Council meeting on the topic, in January 2019, over 70 member states participated, and statements were made in the debate by a dozen ministers. Addressing the meeting, the UN under-secretary-general for political, peacebuilding, and electoral affairs called for attention to be given to key issues such as the development of stronger a...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• Series Page
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Table of Contents
• List of boxes
• Foreword
• Preface
• Acknowledgments
• List of abbreviations
• Introduction
• 1 The United Nations
• 2 Africa: The AU and sub-regional organizations
• 3 Asia: ASEAN and other sub-regional institutions and proposals
• 4 The Americas and Europe: The OAS and OSCE
• 5 Conclusion: Optimism about civil society, and a proposed executive preventive role for the UN Security Council
• Select bibliography
• Index