China: Tackle the Challenge of Global Climate Change

Angang Hu, Qingyou Guan

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2017
• Topic: Social Sciences
• eBook ISBN:
  9781351783934
• Subtopic: Ecology
• Index: Social Sciences

Global climate change is one of the challenges ever to confront humanity with the largest scale, widest scope and most far-reaching influence. As the biggest developing country with the largest population, China is the world's leading consumer of coal and energy, and one of the worst-hit victims of global warming. Consequently, China should assume its responsibility in making contributions to global sustainable development.

Based on the principles of fairness and efficiency, this study creatively puts forward two principles of global governance on climate change. The first entails replacement of the two-group schema of developed and developing countries with a four-group model based on the Human Development Index (HDI). The second entails application of the resulting model to specify the major emitters as principal contributors to emission reduction. In addition, it proposes a two-step strategy for China to tackle the issue of climate change. This book makes it clear that China should proactively engage in relevant international cooperation, actively participate in international climate negotiations, make clear commitments to reduce emissions, and assume the obligations of a responsible power to achieve sustainable and green development.

1
Introduction

Climate change and human development

Climate change is a global issue, and its impacts on the development of societies are causing worldwide concern. In addition to bringing about ecological, economic, and social disasters, global climate change has contributed to inequitable income distribution and even to national security challenges. Consequently, the issue of how to mitigate these effects constitutes a global challenge. The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, entails specific modalities for implementing concerted action as a global response to the climate change challenge post-2020. This agreement has enabled the international community to finally emerge from the shadows of the fruitless Copenhagen Conference.

1.1 The research context of climate change: The considerable challenges it poses for human development

Ecologists have long been concerned about resource depletion and environmental pollution problems.¹ From the 20th century onward, a spate of books and papers has been published on the subject. In the early 1970s, these issues were first presented by the Club of Rome as a “global issue.” By the 1990s, the question of how humankind should deal with global climate change had become a topic of interest within academic research circles, as well as an important policy concern for governments.

Climate change refers to the emergence of statistically significant change in the average state of the climate and/or a deviation (an anomaly) from it. An increase in this deviation indicates an increase in climatic instability.² Climate change, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), refers to any change in climate over time, including changes caused by natural factors as well as human activities. Climate change is defined in paragraph one of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which specifically refers to climate change caused directly or indirectly by human activities.

Global climate change is itself a highly controversial topic. There are still a number of unresolved arguments about climate change within the natural sciences. For example, it is forecast that the global surface temperature will continue to rise by 1.1 °C to 6.4 °C over the next 100 years. This estimated figure is the outcome of 58 value tests conducted by various countries, applying 23 climate system models. The question that arises is whether these mathematical models accurately reflect natural variations and the scope of human activities. There are many uncertainties in this regard.³ Some research institutions believe that global climate change is merely the result of Earth’s own warming and cooling transitional cycle, which has nothing to do with human activities. There has always been climate change throughout human history. The climate has warmed and then cooled time and again, and the determination of warming or cooling is also related to which base year and temporal scale are selected. If we conduct an evaluation of climate change, applying the temporal scale of the last century, it is an indisputable fact that global climate change has been markedly characterized by warming. Because of long-term changes in the climate system and its inherent complexity, there is evidently still a long way to go before we can clearly explain the issue of climate change.

Data analysis⁴ has revealed fluctuations in the earth’s temperature over the past 100 years, with an overall rise of 0.5–0.6 °C. The average surface temperature rise of the Northern Hemisphere has been in the range of 0.6–1.4 °C, with the temperature rise corresponding to an increase in latitude. Thus, the temperature has risen by about 0.4 °C at latitudes of 0°–30°N, by about 1 °C at latitudes of 30°–60°N, and by about 2 °C at latitudes of 60°–90°N.

Ultimately, the question remains as to whether the earth’s environment has gradually become warmer because of human activities. Will this warming trend eventually result in unparalleled disaster for humans? Global climate change is not only a scientific issue, but also a policy issue. Although a considerable number of scientists have warned of the effects of climate change, there are also individuals within the scientific community who have challenged the theory of global warming. One viewpoint is that a periodic change occurs in the earth’s climate itself. Earth experienced the Little Ice Age during the 17th and 18th centuries. Thus, according to this viewpoint, Earth’s temperature rise from the late 19th century has only signaled the end of this ice age. Proponents of this view also point out that global warming is caused by many factors, including solar activity and changes in cosmic rays. Some scholars whose perspectives are more extreme even believe that humans do not have the ability to produce significant changes in nature, and, therefore, climate change caused by human activities is nothing but an argument reflecting a sense of self-importance. This divergence in views is reflected in the terminology used. Those who believe that global warming is caused by human activities refer to it as a “global warming phenomenon,” while skeptics are more likely to refer to it as “climate change.” “Global warming” and “climate change” are combined into one term as an eclectic argument.

General understanding of climate change has undergone a shift from a conception of climate change as a static and stable phenomenon to one that is dynamic and abrupt. Before the 1970s, it was believed that climatic characteristics could be described based on an assessment of the climate over an average period of 30 years. The concept of a climate system was proposed in the 1970s, based on the recognition of climate changes occurring at various temporal scales. However, in the 1980s, a new approach was proposed for understanding the earth’s system based on holistic and dynamic changes of the planet. After 1990, people began to recognize the abrupt character of climate change, and the changing temporal scale has decreased from 1,000 years to 10 years. There are over 100 reasons that explain climate change, and natural factors, including changes in Earth’s orbit, solar radiation, and volcanic eruptions, among other reasons, may contribute to this phenomenon. Currently, human activities, in addition to natural factors, have aggravated the impacts of global climate change. In the context of natural climate cooling, global warming over the past century is especially likely to exhibit an unnatural trend because of the significant impact of human activities. The main reasons for global warming are widely attributed to the greenhouse effect, caused by excessive emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere.⁵

On the whole, and over the entire history of humankind, climate change has undergone numerous alternations between cold and warm periods. However, the rates of such extensive natural changes were much slower before humans. Human activities over the past century have fundamentally differed from natural factors that have historically contributed to climate change. An aspect of climate change that is of grave concern is whether it is periodic or whether the cumulative effects of GHGs will lead to a continuous monotonic temperature rise. Climate change that occurs within such a condensed temporal scale presents a huge challenge for human adaptation. It is also in this sense that climate change, as an environmental issue, enters the purview of the international community.

The IPCC released four global climate assessment reports in 1990, 1995, 2001, and 2007, which constitute the main scientific foundation for the international community’s awareness and understanding of climate change issues. In 2014, the IPCC published its fifth climate change assessment report. This report presents the IPCC’s scientific conclusions based on its compilation of collaborative research involving the world’s leading scientists. It represents authoritative and state-of-the-art knowledge of human society in relation to climate change.⁶ By now, all countries have generally accepted that the concept of global climate change originates in the natural sciences. The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report clearly reveals that human activities are the main cause of global climate change. The CO₂, methane (CH₄), and dinitrogen monoxide (N₂O) concentrations in the global atmosphere have increased significantly from 1750 onward because of the impact of human activities, and they now far exceed pre-industrialization levels based on polar ice core records for periods dating back thousands of years. The polar core records reveal an increase in the concentration of CO₂ from about 0.280 ml/L prior to industrialization to 0.395 ml/L in 2012. The concentration of CH₄ has increased from about 7.15 × 10⁻⁴ ml/L before industrialization to 1.859 × 10⁻³ ml/L in 2012, and the concentration of N₂O increased from about 2.70 × 10⁻⁴ ml/L before industrialization to 3.24 × 10⁻⁴ ml/L in 2012. The impact of human activities has been manifested as an overall warming of the climate, with a radiation intensity of + 2.29 W·m⁻².

Currently we are observing rising average air and sea temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and a rising average sea level, globally. The global climate is presented with significant changes characterized by warming. Over the past three decades, from 1983 to 2012, the average linear warming rate (0.28 °C per year) was almost four times that of the rate over the last 100 years, and the total temperature rise from 1983 to 2012 was 0.85 °C. The rate of the temperature rise in the middle and lower layers of the troposphere is similar to that recorded for surface temperature. The main temperature change can be attributed to the global temperature rise of oceans, as the temperature 75 m under the surface of the sea rose, on average, by 0.11 °C per annum during the period of 1971 to 2010. Mountain glaciers and accumulated snow in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres have retreated on the whole. During the period of 1901 to 2010, the average rate of the global mean sea level rise was 1.7 mm per annum, and the rate during the period of 1993 to 2010 increased by about 3.2 mm per annum. The sea level rise throughout the entire 20th century was estimated to be 19 cm (see Figure 1.1).

The IPCC’s fifth report, released in 2014, also pointed out that most of the observed rises in the average global temperature during the last 50 years were likely to have been caused by increased anthropogenic GHGs (at a probability of 95%). Currently, evidence of recognizable human activities has extended to other aspects of the climate, including ocean temperature, water cycle changes, ice and snow melting, and temporal changes in manifestations of extreme climate. An analysis of previously unexplored simulated results under observation constraints provides the possible range of climate sensitivity and an understanding of the response of the climate system to radioactive forcing. In a scenario entailing the doubling of CO₂ concentrations, the average magnitude of global warming may be 2–4.5 °C higher than it was prior to industrialization. The most accurate estimate is about 3 °C, and the magnitude of warming is unlikely to be less than 1.5 °C. The average global surface temperature for the period of 2016 to 2035 is expected to rise by 0.3–0.7 °C, compared with that during the period of 1986 to 2005, and by 0.3–4.8 °C by the end of the century. Moreover, the global sea level will continue to rise at a rate that exceeds the annual rate of 2.0 mm during the period of 1971 to 2010. These estimates reveal that by 2030, global CO₂ emissions will increase by 45%–100% from their level in 2000. Two-thirds to three-fourths of this growth in CO₂ emissions from energy sources will primarily be from developing countries. By the end of this century, the sea level will have risen by 60 cm.

Global climate change is evidently creating significant challenges for human development. The first of these challenges relates to ecological disasters. The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report has stated that within the next 10 years, 1.1 billion people worldwide will face a shortage of drinking water. By the middle of the 21st century, a further 130 million people in Asia will be threatened by starvation. By 2100, crop revenues in Africa will be reduced by 90%. By 2100, the rising sea level will cause the greatest loss of agricultural land in Bangladesh compared with that experienced by any other country in the world. By 2050, rice and wheat production in Bangladesh will be reduced by 10% and 30%, respectively.

Figure 1.1 Trends in global climate change and sea level rise

Source: The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (2014), 3.

According to the estimates of some scientists, global climate change will lead to a historically unprecedented scale and pace of human migration, involving 200 million people worldwide. In its Human Development Report 2007/2008: Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in A Divided World, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has confirmed that climate change is a scientifically proven fact. It is difficult to predict the precise impact of greenhouse gases, and there are many uncertainties relating to scientific predictive capability. However, according to current studies, there is sufficient information to confirm that huge disaster-related risks exist. These are likely to be catastrophic. They include the melting of ice sheets in Greenland and the western Antarctic region (resulting in the possibility of many countries being submerged) and diversion of the Gulf Stream (which may bring about dramatic climate change). A rise in sea levels will have a considerable impact on economic and social development, globally. According to projections, a rise in the sea level of 1 m (the probability of this occurring is 70%–80%) will affect 0.3% of the land area, 1.3% of the population, 1.3% of the GDP, 1.0% of the urban area, 0.4% of the agricultural area, and 1.9% of the wetland area across the globe. Small island states such as the Maldives, a country that is only 1.5 m above sea level, are likely to be submerged. If current global warming trends continue, the Maldives will disappear during this century. On October 17, 2009, the former Maldivian president, Mohamed Nasheed, held the world’s first underwater cabinet meeting on the country’s seabed at a depth of 4 m. A resolution titled “SOS from the Frontline” was signed at this meeting and was subsequently submitted at the United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Copenhagen that same year, making a strong plea for countries to reduce their GHG emissions. In November 2013, Nasheed announced that to prevent the continued rise in the sea level and to guard against the loss of homes, the Maldives would set aside a portion of its tourism income for the purchase of new land to arrange new accommodation for the country’s 386,000 inhabitants. Clearly, we cannot turn a deaf ear to appeals from countries affected by the ecological disaster caused by climate change.

Table 1.1 Impacts of the rise in sea levels

The second challenge is economic disaster. A report overseen and completed by Nicholas Stern, a former chief economist for the World Bank, provided the fir...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• List of figures
• List of tables
• Preface
• Acknowledgment
• 1 Introduction: Climate change and human development
• 2 The international context of climate change negotiations and the dawn of the Paris Climate Conference
• 3 Global governance of climate change: Reaching a global emission reduction agreement
• 4 Climate change and China: Threats and challenges
• 5 National governance of climate change: A roadmap for China’s emission reduction
• 6 Addressing climate change and achieving a low-carbon economy: The road ahead for China
• 7 Global significance and strategic consensus
• Postscript
• Bibliography
• Index