INTRODUCTION
Special issue on instability and tourism
María Santana-Gallego and ShiNa Li
The rise of political instability and terrorism necessitates a reassessment of various tourism policy issues. This special issue focuses upon evaluating the impact of terrorism political conflicts and other types of instability on the tourism sector and considers the practical implications for countries of being adversely affected by these episodes.
Over the last decades, tourism has been adversely affected by a wide range of problems such as economic crises, social conflicts, political instability, terrorism and wars. The US 9/11 terrorist attack, the Arab Spring, the rise of Islamic State and political instability in Eastern Europe are examples of events that are seriously affecting international tourism flows. Each of these, and their consequences on tourism, confirm the need to understand more about potential mitigating policy interventions in different contexts.
As others have noted, political stability is extremely important in determining the image of destinations in tourist generating regions (Hall, 1996). Indeed, safety is one of the priorities when consumers make travel decisions; if they perceive a risk of injury or death, or a highly stressful situation, they will avoid that destination. When violence becomes widespread and prolonged, governments in tourist origin countries will advise against travelling to those destinations and commercial operators will cancel tours because of insufficient bookings and for fear of liability suits, and will promote other destinations instead (Neumayer, 2004). A further problem is that terrorist attacks and political disruption can damage infrastructure relevant to the tourism industry (Llorca-Vivero, 2008) and may damage or destroy national treasures (Yap & Saha, 2013).
In spite of its relevance, the effects of instability on tourism are still under research. This special issue provides examples of different approaches to understanding and addressing the impacts of this phenomenon on tourism. The articles contribute to, and draw upon, tourism economics, tourism management and leisure studies policy frameworks reflecting the holistic nature of the effect of instability on tourism. Additionally, the articles provide discussion of the policy implications and evaluate the impact of policies undertaken to deal with instability. Finally, the articles encourage further research and identify potentially fruitful areas of enquiry.
Elshaer and Saad in ‘Political instability and tourism in Egypt: Exploring survivors’ attitudes after downsizing’ explore the impact of job insecurity on the attitudes of survivors in down-sized hotels and tourism companies in Egypt after the instability generated by the Arab Spring in 2011. Moreover, the article provides relevant discussion of the implications of their findings. Farajat, Liu and Pennington-Gray in ‘Addressing travel writers’ role as risk brokers: The case of Jordan’ analyse the role of travel writers as risk brokers during unstable times, considering Jordan as the case study. The article reveals that safety emerges as one of the major issues that contemporary travel articles were concerned about, and they also discuss the importance for tourism policy-makers of risk management. Basnyat, Lovelock and Carr in ‘Political instability and trade union practices in Nepalese hotels’ collect data through interviews to study the effect of instability on trade union practices in the Nepalese tourism industry by examining how the roles of trade unions alter after changes caused by political instability.
Afonso-Rodríguez in ‘Evaluating the dynamics and impact of terrorist attacks on tourism and economic growth for Turkey’ provides an up-to-date analysis of the Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis in Turkey but with the value added of considering information on terrorist attacks. The author uses different econometric specifications of cointegrating regressions to quantify the impact of terrorism on the relationship between tourism demand and economic growth, including the novelty approach of a threshold cointegrating regression. Deep and Johnston in ‘Travel advisories-destabilising diplomacy in disguise’ present an interesting conceptual paper to create a destabilisation-to-re-stabilisation sequence on the use of travel advisory as an attempt to politically and/or economically destabilise the developing-nation destination through disruption of tourism. Finally, Ivanov, Gavrilina, Webster and Ralko in ‘Impacts of political instability on the tourism industry in Ukraine’ collect questionnaires completed by hotel managers and travel agency managers to learn about how the tourism industry in Ukraine has been hit by the political instability in the country and how it has reacted to mitigate its negative consequences.
To sum up, the special issue includes six papers exploring a wide range of themes related to instability and tourism using innovative approaches and considering different countries for their research. Precisely, countries such as Turkey, Ukraine, Jordan, Egypt and Nepal are under analysis. The articles published in this special issue reveal that the authors for this special issue are affiliated with universities in the USA, New Zealand, Spain, Egypt, Jordan and Bulgaria. All selected papers underwent a rigorous double-blind review process before final revision and acceptance.
References
- Hall, C. M. (1996). Tourism and politics: Policy, power and place. England: John Wiley & Son.
- Llorca-Vivero, R. (2008). Terrorism and international tourism: New evidence. Defence and Peace Economics, 19(2), 169–188.
- Neumayer, E. (2004). The impact of political violence on tourism: Dynamic cross-national estimation. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(2), 259–281.
- Yap, G., & Saha, S. (2013). Do political instability, terrorism and corruption have deterring effects on tourism development even in the presence of UNESCO heritage? A cross-country panel estimate. Tourism Analysis, 18, 587–599.
Political instability and tourism in Egypt: exploring survivors’ attitudes after downsizing
Ibrahim A. Elshaer and Samar K. Saad
ABSTRACT
Political unrest, framed within an array of terrorists’ attacks and large demonstrations against the regime, has been considered a mainstay of the tourism collapse in Egypt since 2011. The number of tourists visiting the country has drastically declined, mainly in response to international travel alerts and warnings by many Western governments. As such, several tourism and hospitality organizations have applied downsizing strategies in their attempt to cut labor cost. Both employees who lost their jobs (victims) and who remain in the organization (survivors) have been experiencing a great fear of the future and incremental feelings of job insecurity. While a review of literature clearly shows the harmful influence of political unrest on tourism destinations, little is known to suggest such influence on employees’ reactions. The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of job insecurity on the attitudes of survivors (i.e. trust, organizational commitment and turnover intention) in downsized hotels and tourism companies in Egypt. The results indicate that survivors’ perception of job insecurity within an unstable political climate has a strong positive relationship with survivors’ turnover intention. The results suggest that this relationship is more likely to be weakened by survivors’ high perception of trust and commitment in their organization. Additionally, it is found that survivors who intend to leave their organization target to entirely change their career or seek to work abroad. Losing qualified survivors to other industries or countries may become a significant risk for the Egyptian tourism industry. The implications of the results are discussed and elaborated.
RESUMEN
El descontento político, enmarado en una serie de ataques terroristas y grandes manifestaciones contra el régimen, ha sido considerado un pilar del colapso del turismo en Egipto desde 2011. El número de turistas que visitan el país ha caído drásticamente, principalmente en respuesta a las alertas de viaje y a las advertencias por parte de muchos gobiernos occidentales. Y así, algunas organizaciones turísticas han aplicado estrategias de recorte de personal en un intento de reducir los costes laborales. Tanto los empleados que perdieron sus trabajos (víctimas) como aquellos que permanecen en la organización (supervivientes) han estado experimentando un gran temor al futuro y unos crecientes sentimientos de inseguridad laboral. Mientras que una revisión de la literatura muestra claramente la nociva influencia del descontento político en los destinos turísticos, se conoce poco para sugerir tal influencia en las reacciones de los empleados. El propósito de este trabajo es explorar el impacto de la inseguridad laboral en las actitudes de los supervivientes (i.e. confianza, compromiso con la organización e intención de abandono) en hoteles con recortes de personal y en compañías turísticas en Egipto. Los resultados indican que la percepción de la inseguridad laboral de los supervivientes dentro de un clima político inestable tiene una fuerte relación positiva con la intención de abandono de los supervivientes. Lo resultados sugieren que esta relación es más probable que sea debilitada por una elevada percepción de confianza y compromiso con su organización de los supervivientes. Además, se encontró que los supervivientes que tienen la intención de abandonar su organización se fijan como objetivo cambiar completamente su carrera o buscar trabajo en el extranjero. La pérdida de supervivientes cualificados a favor de otras industrias o países puede llegar a ser un riesgo importante para la industria turística egipcia. Se discuten y se desarrollan las implicaciones de estos resultados.
RÉSUMÉN
L’instabilité politique causée par des attaques terroristes et des vagues de manifestations contre le régime a été considérée comme l’un des facteurs majeurs de l’effondrement du tourisme en Egypte depuis 2011. Le nombre de touristes qui visitent le pays a considérablement chuté, principalement suite aux alertes aux voyageurs internationaux, aux conseils et aux avertissements émis par de nombreux gouvernements occidentaux. À cet effet, plusieurs organismes de tourisme et du l’hôtellerie ont mis en place des stratégies de consolidation visant la réduction des coûts de la main-d’œuvre. Les employés qui ont perdu leur emploi (victimes) et ceux qui sont restés dans l’organisation (résistants) ont tous senti une grande peur de l’avenir et un sentiment croissant d’insécurité à l’égard de l’emploi. Si l’analyse des données disponibles au public montre clairement les effets négatifs de l’instabilité politique sur les destinations touristiques, il est clair qu’un tel impact sur les réactions des employés est très peu connu. Le but de cet article est d’étudier l’impact de la précarité sur les attitudes des résistants (à savoir la confiance, l’attachement à l’organisation et les perspectives du chiffre d’affaires) dans les hôtels et les entreprises touristiques soumis aux mesures d’austérité en Egypte. Les résultats de cette recherche indiquent que les perceptions des résistants à l’égard de l’insécurité de l’emploi dans un climat d’instabilité politique ont une influence très positive sur les perspectives de la productivité des résistants. Par contre, les résultats suggèrent que cette relation est plus susceptible d’être faible lorsqu’il y a une forte perception de confiance et d’attachement des ré...