JAPAN: Economic Growth, Resource Scarcity, and Environmental Constraints

Edward A. Olsen

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2019
• eBook ISBN: 9780429726125
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Politica e relazioni internazionali
• Subtopic: Politica asiatica

This study evaluates, from a neo-Malthusian perspective, Japan's current status and its prognosis in the context of the country's economic vulnerabilities. Drawing on the theoretical contributions of Malthus, N. Georgescu-Roegen, H. and M. Sprout, and assorted environmental-ecological doomsayers, the author reaches pessimistic conclusions about Japan's very long term prospects, but holds out some slim hope for Japan if international cooperation of nearly Utopian dimensions can be achieved.

Chapter 1
Introduction

The predecessor of this study was originally prepared as a doctoral dissertation in International Studies with a more broadly based theoretical and regional focus. Entitled "East Asia and the ecological perspective on the roots of power of H. & M. Sprout: an inquiry into the nature of power and the power of nature in East Asian political cultures," the original study sought to reassess the theoretical contributions of Professors Harold and Margaret Sprout of Princeton University by applying those theories in the regional context of East Asia: China, Japan, and Korea.

The present study differs from its parent in its emphasis. It draws less specifically on the Sprouts' work and focuses exclusively on Japan. The theoretical assumptions implicit in this study — while drawing upon the work of the Sprouts¹ and others working in their field -- are decidedly more Malthusian than the Sprouts. Specifically, and from the standpoint of economic theory, this study owes a fundamental debt to Professor Nicholas GeorgescuRoegens' work on the role of thermodynamic entropy in economic systems. In addition, this study was consciously drafted in strongly neo-Malthusian terms. Using these neo-Malthusian assumptions an attempt is made to assess Japan's economic vulnerability and its impact on Japan as a force in world politics.

Based, as it is, on a controversial set of pessimistic assumptions this study draws tentative conclusions with which many will disagree. I recognize the possible validity of opposing viewpoints given the validity of opposing assumptions -- what the Sprouts have termed the "engineering perspective," e.g. all problems have solutions.² However, I deny the validity of those assumptions. Instead, I prefer to see problems as Santayana saw them:

All problems are divided into two classes: soluble questions, which are trivial, and important questions, which are insoluble.

I contend the neo-Malthusian problems which Japan and the world confront are in fact overwhelmingly important and probably insoluble in terms of a comprehensive solution.

Seeking a solution, humanity on a finite world is forced to face the inescapable facts of the earth's carrying capacity. Carrying capacity is not a question of nature controlling man, but of nature imposing limitations on man's endeavors. The difficulty with this notion is that "limitation" can be conceived too rigidly. Many economists who criticize neo-Malthusian analysis fall into this trap. A more desirable notion of carrying capacity is that of flexible limits. Such a notion may seem inherently contradictory. To clarify this seeming contradiction we must recall that the idea of "nature" is a cultural phenomenon and that any limits which we consider to be imposed by nature are, therefore, always relative to the goals posited by cultural man. Thus the limits are flexible in the sense that they are determined by and respond to man's goals. While the limit must be considered a flexible limit, it is a limit nonetheless.

In short, the place of natural resources, renewable and non-renewable, in the ecumene is not determining but they are delimiting. A shortage of resources will not necessarily be catastrophic if managed wisely, but with poor economic and political management shortages can range from depressive to utter catastrophe.

Economists commonly attack the notion of exponential growth leading to eventual disaster by claiming the constraining limits are not fixed, but are also exponential. They thereby demonstrate an unfortunate lack of comprehension of the ecological paradigm. They are correct that limits are not fixed, but are in error when they transform what are actually flexible limits bound by earthly constraints into exponentially growing limits. Limits can be reconstructed by man according to his goals, but finity can not be transformed into infinity by assumption.

The neo-Malthusian contention of this study is that the pressures of growth in the context of flexible limits will become too great for compensation or substitution and that new approaches will have to be developed to handle the dilemma. In other words, the problem is the probable failure of economic adjustment mechanisms -- the inability of the world economy in a future Malthusian crisis to internalize disruptive externalities. The economic systems can not provide answers because "answers" do not exist for this question.

The great majority of economists are highly critical of Malthusian economic analysis. A notable exception to this rule is the insightful work of Professor Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen of Vanderbilt University. Before turning to an examination of Japan, it is worthwhile briefly examining some key elements in Georgescu-Roegen's neo-Malthusian economic analysis which, along with the better known theoretical contributions of Malthus himself and of Harold and Margaret Sprout, underlies this study.³

Georgescu-Roegen denounces the affinity for mechanistic dogma demonstrated by most economists. He charges that their attachment to equilibrium theory has led standard economists to ignore or play down systemic feedback mechanisms, generally treating feedback in terms of maintaining equilibrium and not in evolutionary terms.

Seeking to move away from a mechanical model in economics, Georgescu-Roegen argues for the applicability to economics of the Second Law of Thermodynamics -- the Entropy Law. A highly complex concept in physics, entropy amounts to an "index of the amount of unavailable energy in a given thermodynamic system at a given moment of its evolution." In broader terms, entropy is an index of irrevocable dissipation of energy and — by extension --of matter. Georgescu-Roegen contends that in essence thermodynamics constitutes "a physics of economic value". Supporting a shift in models he argues that "the economy of any life process is governed, not by the laws of mechanics, but by the Entropy Law," Central to the importance of this conceptual shift is the fact that "the Entropy Law is the taproot of economic scarcity." In a hypothetical purely mechanical world energy could be used over and over again, equipment and organisms would never wear out, and there would never be a scarcity of energy or materials.

In a sense economists begin to deal with the reality of economic scarcity in the oft-repeated phrase "there is no such thing as a free lunch." However, they generally miss the point because they address this notion in terms of price and cost. In contrast to this simple perspective, Georgescu-Roegen charges "To believe that this equality also prevails in terms of entropy constitutes one of the most dangerous economic myths. In the context of entropy, ---, any process in nature must result in a deficit for the entire system."

Though Malthus and a variety of later neo-Malthusian environmentalists perceived the general outline of trends enforced by the Entropy Law acting on social-economic systems, they often reached erroneous conclusions. A basic and often noted error involves their timing. Malthus and his followers looked for a doomsday on the horizon, frequently speculating incorrectly as to its imminence and with insufficient regard to the social adaptability of human cultures. A specific timetable for Malthusian disaster is probably impossible to forecast since the social and natural variables are too numerous and the forecast itself may influence the course of events. Nor is such a disaster likely to occur in one fell swoop. As Georgescu-Roegen correctly observes, when and if the "end" comes it will likely be gradual, following "a very long series of surreptitious, protracted crises."

More importantly, Georgescu-Roegen uncovered a vital flaw in Malthus^' theory and in the major modern analyses of a neo-Malthusian bent (notably The Limits to Growth and "Blueprint for Survival"⁴). As Georgescu-Roegen insightfully observes, Malthus and many of his adherents "were set exclusively on proving the impossibility of growth." As a consequence "they were easily deluded by a simple, now widespread, but false syllogism: since exponential growth in a finite world leads to disaster of all kinds, ecological salvation lies in the stationary state." Georgescu-Roegen is a post-Malthusian theoretician in that he is more Malthusian than Malthus. Based on the correct observation that a stationary state global economy will also sooner or later collapse, Georgescu-Roegen concludes "the most desirable state is not a stationary, but a declining one," but also cautions that it is unlikely that anyone will ever produce a "blueprint for the ecological salvation of the human species."

Malthusian concepts are critical for the future of man on earth.⁵ The fact that man can stretch constraining limits does not mean that those limits can be made to vanish. Malthusian flexible limits are more likely to flex to meet our demands by assuming their validity and acting upon that assumption than by ridiculing Malthus. Yet uninformed ridicule remains pervasive. How long this condition will persist is an open question.

Japan is not unique in confronting the Malthusian dilemma. Other countries — notably those of Western Europe -- confront the dilemma in similar ways. However, for reasons examined in the body of this study, the Japanese situation is potentially far more acute than the circumstances of other advanced industrialized states. It may therefore provide an instructive example.

Notes

1. Sprout, Harold H., "Political Geography as a Political Science field" in American Political Science Review. May 1931, PP- 439-442.

Sprout, Harold and Margaret, "Geography and international politics in an era of revolutionary change" in Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 4, March 1960, pp. 145-161.

------, The Ecological Perspective on Human Affairs with Special Reference to International Politics (Princeton, 1965).

------, An Ecological Paradigm for the Study of International Politics. (Princeton, 1968.

------, "The dilemma of rising demands and insufficient resources" in World Politics, July 1968, pp. 660-693.

------, "Environmental factors in the study of international politics" in James N. Rosenau (ed.), International Politics and Foreign Policy (New York, 1969) .

------, Ecology and Politics in America: Some Issues and Alternatives, (Morristown, 1971.

------, "The ecological viewpoint - and others" in Cyril E. Black and Richard A. Falk (eds.), The Future of the International Legal Order, Volume IV: The Structure of the International Environment, (Princeton, 1972).

------, Toward a Politics of the Planet Earth, (New York, 1971).

------, "National priorities; demands, resources, dilemmas" in World Politics, January 1972, pp. 293-317.

------, "Environmental politics: what role for political scientists?" in Stuart S. Nagel (ed.), Environmental Politics, (New York, 1974).

2. Sprouts, Toward a Politics of the Planet Earth, op. cit., pp. 17-18.

3. The most comprehensive statement of Georgescu-Roegen's views can be found in his The Entropy Law and the Economic Process, (Cambridge, 1971). The best summary of his views is his "Energy and Economic myths" in Southern Economic Journal, January l975, pp. 347-381. The quoted portions in the following text are from pp. 351-355 and 366-369 of the latter article.

4. Dennis L. Meadows, Donella H. Meadows, jørgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III, The Limits to Growth, (New York, 1972).

"Blueprint for survival" in Ecologist, January 1972, pp. 1-43.

5. The term "Malthusian" is frequently used throughout this study in a broad sense to indicate a generic perspective.

Chapter 2
Japanese Economic Growth, an Overview

Japan's economic growth in the post World War Two era is one of the marvels of the Twentieth Century. Out of the ashes of defeat the Japanese phoenix arose and attained undreamt of glories. Japan is the first Asian nation to rank among the leading economies of the modern world. It reached this position on the basis of a market economy, although one with important differences from other advanced economies. By 1968 — one hundred years after the Meiji restoration put Japan on the path to modernity -- Japan's output of goods and services exceeded that of West Germany. Its economy became the third largest in the world after that of the United States and the Soviet Union.

There are two overwhelmingly significant features of Japan's post-1868 moder...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• List of Tables
• Preface
• 1 INTRODUCTION
• 2 JAPANESE ECONOMIC GROWTH, AN OVERVIEW
• 3 CHANGING JAPANESE PERCEPTIONS OF NATURE AND SOCIETAL CONSTRAINTS
• 4 JAPAN, A NEO-MALTHUSIAN STATE
• 5 INTERNATIONALISM, ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY, AND POLICY OPTIONS
• BIBLIOGRAPHY