Food Supplies in the Aftermath of World War II

Edith Hirsch

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2019
• ISBN:
  9781000124293
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Economics
• Subtopic: International Economics
• Index: Economics

Originally published in 1993. This study was written in 1946 having been commissioned by a large corporation in the food industry. The insights from this agricultural economics perspective even now are highly interesting. At the time there was real concern over food shortage and the UN and US government assumed there would be a problem for a long time to come. This study showed otherwise and set out suggestions for food policy and foreign aid policy with regards to food. This thorough study is an exemplary snapshot of the history of food policy and has lessons still to share.

Chapter ONE

Why the Food Emergency of 1945/46 Will Not Recur in 1946/47

Causes of the Emergency of February 1946

At the beginning of 1946 the world found itself faced with a food shortage far worse than anything experienced during the war. Failure to recognize this shortage before the beginning of the second half of the crop year increased its actual impact and naturally intensified its psychological effects.

By late summer of 1945 requests for exports of wheat from the United States were only 225 million bushels, while an export of more than 400 million bushels was badly needed. Only because of the very energetic action of the United States, and the very great carry-over, plus excellent harvests both here and in Canada, was it possible to save the world from starvation.

The severe shortage in the 1945/6 crop year arose from the coincidence of the following misfortunes:

1. Actual warfare took place in several countries at the time of the sowing and harvesting: Germany, Austria, Poland, the Danubian states and Czechoslovakia, thus had much smaller harvests. So had Thailand and Indo-China. In some areas the soil was not cultivated at all in 1945.

2. There were severe droughts in five regions: Australia; the Far East, including India; South Africa; the Mediterranean countries; and Southeastern Europe.

3. In Argentina and Australia smaller grain crops had been planted during the war. Because no shortages were expected, no efforts were made to increase the acreage.

4. There was an acute shortage of fertilizers, of labor and draft power.

5. Heavy looting of the available stocks occurred in many of the liberated and the occupied countries.

6. Since it was expected in fall of 1945 that the world supply would be approximately adequate, there was premature relief from restrictions on food and feed consumption in some countries. The bread rations were increased, and because it seemed desirable to build up the reduced livestock herds, grains which could have been used more advantageously directly for food were fed to animals. Great Britain, which during the war had increased the cultivation of wheat and potatoes, returned to the production of more feed.

7. There was no world-wide planning, in spite of the Combined Food Board, and in many cases not even nation-wide planning.

On the other hand, there was one great advantage: The carryovers of wheat amounted to about 600 millions bushels for the United States and Canada, while it will be at best 200 million bushels the year.

Why No Repetition of the Emergency Is Likely in 1946/7

Fortunately we do not need to expect a repetition of these events. While there are still severe shortages in the meat, fat and sugar supply the world over, and while there will scarcely be anything like a general over-supply of grains in 1946/47, there should be enough food in the present crop year to allow for adequate diets in most countries and to avoid starvation in all of them. Even some rehabilitation of the depleted livestock in Europe might become possible.

The favorable developments which have brought about this outlook, are as follows:

1. The crop weather has so far been excellent.. Both in our own country and in Canada we can expect new bumper crops of wheat and small grains. Our own corn crop will be the largest ever if the weather is fair in August. The weather has been favorable in France, in the Balkans and in all Mediterranean countries, which suffered so heavily from drought last year. No droughts have developed thus far, except in the Ukraine, where replanting was partly possible, and in New Zealand. If the favorable crop reports from Russia hold true, exports from the Balkan countries to Western Europe possible.

2. Since commodity prices have risen considerably since last year, Argentina and Australia are planning much larger crops than last year. High grain prices all over the world act as an incentive.

3. The soil has been fully cultivated with few exceptions in all European countries this year. This also holds true for most of the Far East although timely imports of cotton goods could still perform miracles in producing rice.

4. Fishing has already been expanded. Fish will be a supplement to otherwise low-protein diets throughout the 1946/47 crop year, both in Europe and in Japan.

5. There is full awareness, or perhaps over-awareness, that food is still in scarce supply. In the various countries the available supply of indigenous and imported food will be apportioned over the whole year, so that deficiencies in the last months of the crop year will be avoided. Also, there is full cooperation among the countries. It can be expected that the real needs will be known in time, and appropriations made accordingly.

6. The available grain will carry farther, since the extraction rates have been higher from the very beginning of the crop year, while in the 1945/46 crop year they had to be raised in the second half. Wherever it is possible, wheat will be blended with grains in greater supply, such as oats, corn and also with potatoes, or with soybean cake. Our own very good oat crop will help to this end where needed.

Thus, except for the possibility of bad weather in August, which would affect our all-important corn crop, and for unexpected droughts in the Southern Hemisphere, the world will escape starvation without too great sacrifices on the part of this country, although, on the basis of gift exports and credits, world demand may yet outrun world supply in some commodities, though not necessarily in bread grains. There will be a lack of oilseeds from the Far East. Oilseeds, the bulk of which came from the Far East in prewar times, were second in importance in world trade only to wheat.

Because of this deficit of oilseeds, which means less fats and fewer dairy products, some form of international cooperation in the distribution of available supplies of food, fats and oils will no doubt continue to be necessary for some time.

The General Answer to the World Food Problem in 1946/47

In May 1946, the FAO drafted the following:

World Food Balance Sheet for 1946/47¹
(in million metric tons wheat or wheat equivalent)

The gap, as assumed by the FAO was 10 million tons.

The remedies for closing this gap which the FAO proposed were a series of drastic restrictions for all nations, continuing not only through 1946/47 but extending into 1948, and providing for the ultimate development of an internationally controlled agriculture thereafter.

World Food Balance Sheet FAO vs. Estimates
(in million metric tons-wheat or wheat equivalent)

An alternative remedy, seldom mentioned in contrast to the emphasis given to the numerous restrictions, is quoted by FAO as follows: “If only 5% of the coarse grains for feed could be saved and exported, 7.5 million tons of food grains would be available.¹

The forecast given above was made on the basis of crop estimates of April of this year and under considerably higher nutritive standards than applied by the Hoover committee or by the Allied occupation authorities. The findings of our report, based on statements by Herbert Hoover and on ample material compiled up to July 23,1946, including that of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), arrive at the different figures on the preceeding page:

These figures show that the real import requirements in Continental Europe will not be 12.5 million metric tons of wheat as estimated by the FAO, but about 8 to 9; not 10 million in the Far East, but Near East and Africa of 8 million are added, the total is 24 to 24.5 million metric tons.

Exports of wheat and wheat flour of the four main exporters have been estimated at 20.5 to 22.8 million tons, and for the Danubian countries and others at 1 to 2 million tons. This does not include exports of rice from the United States, Brazil and Egypt, which amount to about 1.0 million tons; nor are exports of coarse grains included. It seems that almost any deficiency of grain for human consumption can be made up by coarse grains, since we are expecting the largest crop of feed grains ever harvested in the United States. This crop may even be sufficient to allow for an increase in the export of coarse grains for feed purposes.

Danish Government Expert Foresees Enough Food For All in 1946/47

The total prospects certainly justify the statement of the Danish Government expert, A.P. Jacobsen, which rather excited the majority of the members of the FAO at a meeting of May 21:

I am inclined to believe that the aggregate acreage cultivated in the whole world is not much lower than before the war ... It can hardly be doubted that the coming harvest will be big enough to procure a fairly sufficient amount of food for all people. It depends entirely on how the harvest is used.

Corrected World Food Balance Sheet 1946/47 as of Mid-July 1946
(in million metric tons)

Since Mr. Jacobsen made this statement, crop conditions have improved to such a degree that drastic regulations will not be necessary, at least in the surplus countries, to prevent starvation in the world.

Outlook for 1947/48

For the crop year 1947/48 the increased application of chemical fertilizers here and abroad, of mechanical power, of better seeds and progress in the reconstruction of European and Far Eastern agriculture make the recurrence of an emergency improbable. This could only happen in case of a serious drought in North America. Surpluses in some commodities are very likely.

The year 1948/49 might bring the problem of surpluses, though in that year some replenishment of the “ever-normal granary” will still be desirable. In the years that will follow, this problem will surely be with us. It should be met by a positive policy of improved nutritive standards, higher consumption of livestock products, better utilization and conservation of the soil and of feed supplies and by an increased industrial use of farm products.

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