Global Nuclear Energy Risks

The Search for Preventive Medicine

Bennett Ramberg

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2019
• eBook ISBN: 9780429725579
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: Politics
• Index: Politics & International Relations

This book addresses the strategic challenges and proposes alternative international remedies set in historical and regulatory contexts that suggest that nations should increase international scrutiny of atomic power in order to minimize risks..

1
The Problem

The Nuclear Market

In late 1983 there were 529 nuclear power reactors in operation, under construction, or on order in thirty-eight countries (see Table 1.1). In several nations nuclear energy already generates a significant amount of electricity. In 1981 the share of electric power generated by nuclear facilities was 38 percent in France, 36 percent in Sweden, 28 percent in Switzerland, 25 percent in Belgium and Taiwan, 16 percent in Japan, 14 percent in Germany, 13 percent in Britain, and 12 percent in the United States.¹ Table 1.2 indicates that electricity generation from atomic power will increase for many nations in the years to come.

Although this growth is impressive, it is clearly not as expansive as anticipated just a few short years ago. In the mid-1970s the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) predicted that nuclear power generation worldwide would reach 1,500 gigawatts (gwe) by the year 1990 and up to 5,000 gwe by 2000.² Present predictions are substantially lower. Looking at member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)—Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, the Federal Republic of Germany, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States—puts this into clearer focus. Table 1.3 shows that estimates for Western European nuclear power generation by 2000 have been reduced by over 70 percent since 1975—likewise for the United States. Even these forecasts may be optimistic. Expectations were mostly wishful thinking and simplistic linear extrapolations based on the assumption that energy consumption would continue to rise in the future

Table 1.1
Nuclear Power Plants 30MW(e) and over, December 1983

Country	Op'g^a	Under Construction^b	Ordered^c	Total
Argentina	3	l	0	3
Austria	0	1^d	0	1
Belgium	5	2	0	7
Brazil	0	3	0	3
Bulgaria	4	0	0	4
Canada	13	8	3	24
China	0	0	1	1
Czechoslovakia	3	7	0	10
Egypt	0	2	0	2
Finland	4	0	0	4
France	36	73	2	61
German Democratic Rep.	5	2	0	7
German Federal Rep.	12	10	7	29
Hungary	1	3	0	4
India	4	6	0	10
Iran	0	2	0	2
Iraq	0	0	1	1
Italy	3	6	0	6
Japan	25	11	4	40
Libya	0	0	1	1
Luxembourg	0	0	1	1
Mexico	0	2	0	2
Netherlands	2	0	0	2
Pakistan	1	0	0	1
Philippines	0	1	0	1
Poland	0	0	2	2
Romania	0	3	3	6
South Africa	0	2	0	2
South Korea	3	6	0	9
Spain	5	9	4	17
Sweden	10	2	0	12
Switzerland	4	1	2	7
Taiwan	4	2	0	6
Turkey	0	0	1	1
United Kingdom	33	9	0	42
United States	29	59^e	2	135
USSR	34	22	6^f	62
Yugoslavia	1	0	0	1
Total	294	210	34	529

Source: "World List of Nuclear Power Plants," Nuclear News 26 (February 1983): 71-90; and "World List of Nuclear Power Plants," Nuclear News 27 (February 1984): 71-90.

^aUnits in commercial operation.

^bIncludes plants that may be constructed but are not yet in operation; Nuclear News 27 (February 1984): 71-90.

^cThe criterion for listing a unit is either an order or letter of inten...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• Dedication
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• List of Tables
• Preface
• Acknowledgments
• 1 The Problem
• 2 Current Treatment
• 3 Precedents and Lessons for an International Nuclear Review
• 4 Possible Cures
• 5 Relative Merits of the International Nuclear Reviews
• 6 Epilogue: The Implications of the 1985 NPT Review Conference
• Notes
• Abbreviations and Acronyms
• CISA Book Series: Studies in International and Strategic Affairs
• Index