Korea

Christoph Bluth

• Publisher: Polity
• Year: 2013
• Print ISBN: 9780745633572, 9780745633565
• eBook ISBN: 9780745657714
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: International Relations
• Index: Politics & International Relations

Korea is one of the critical flashpoints in the world today. News of North Korea's recent nuclear tests, conducted in defiance of international pressure, drew widespread condemnation and raised serious concerns about the threat now posed to regional and international security by the regime of North Korea's dear leader Kim Jong-Il.

This book penetrates the veil surrounding the conflict on the Korean peninsula and North Korea's missile and nuclear programmes. It provides a thorough historical analysis of relations between the two Koreas since the Korean War, which traces both North Korea's path to economic ruin and South Korea's transition from struggling dictatorship to vibrant democracy.

As well as examining the political and economic development of North and South Korea at the domestic level, the book goes on to explore regional relations with Russia, China and Japan and, most importantly, America's dealings with Korea and its negotiations with North Korea, in particular. It concludes with an analysis of North Korea's current nuclear programme and its likely impact on international security in the 21st century.

1

The Crisis on the Korean Peninsula ————

Early on the morning of 5 July 2006, seven missiles were launched from North Korea over the Sea of Japan. The launches were timed to take place shortly after the United States launched the space shuttle Discovery to celebrate Independence Day. One of the missiles, called the Taepodong-2, is presumed to be a prototype intercontinental range delivery system for nuclear weapons that may in future reach the territory of the United States. Its capabilities could not be assessed because it blew up shortly after launch, although some inferences can be made from previous launches. The announcement by the North Korean news agency KCNA on 9 October 2006 that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) had carried out an underground nuclear test marked a further escalation of the North Korean military threat and the culmination of a long confrontation over its nuclear programme. Once again the world was reminded that Korea is one of the critical flashpoints of international security today.

The division of Korea goes back to World War II when the Korean peninsula was partially occupied by Soviet troops. The southern part was under US occupation for three years. Efforts through the UN to end the occupation and create a unified Korea were rejected by the Soviet Union and thus the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea in the North as well as the Republic of Korea (ROK) in the South were established in 1948. In 1950 North Korean armed forces, with the support of the Soviet Union, invaded the South. The Truman administration perceived this conflict as an act of communist aggression and quickly committed forces under the aegis of the UN which restored the status quo by 1953. The current division of Korea is a legacy of these events.

The Korean War was a devastating setback for the ambitions of North Korean leader Kim Il-sung with regard to the reunification of Korea as a socialist state. The US military presence in the ROK made this objective unachievable in the short term, so the DPRK focused on the reconstruction and development of the North Korean economy, without however abandoning the goal of unification. Between 1953 and 1962, the North Korean economy experienced a rapid growth in output. The emphasis was on heavy industry to fulfil the requirements of a military-industrial base, rather than consumer goods. North Korean GDP per head exceeded that of South Korea until the 1970s. North Korea nevertheless received grants and loans from the Soviet Union, China and various European socialist countries. The presence of Chinese forces in North Korea until the late 1950s relieved pressure on military expenditures.

The North Korean economy was a centrally planned economy similar to that of other socialist countries. It was organized on the principle of juche, national self-reliance. Even though North Korea did rely to some extent on foreign economic assistance and trade, it developed the world’s most autarkic economy and did not even join the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance. Although an ally of the Soviet Union, the DPRK sought to reduce reliance on the Soviet Union and create a balance between relations with China and with the USSR.

In the 1960s, the DPRK embarked on a sustained military build-up in support of a more aggressive pursuit of reunification. The size of the armed forces grew from 300,000 to about a million by the end of the 1970s, and military preparedness was absorbing an increasing share of national output. As support from its traditional allies weakened, the correlation of forces on the Korean peninsula slowly changed.

The security dilemma of the Republic of Korea derives from the contest for the ‘Korean nation’ and the battle for legitimacy between North and South Korea. In the early years the Republic of Korea suffered from political factionalism and uneven economic growth, misallocation of resources and rent-seeking behaviour. Politically, militarily and to an extent economically it was dependent on the United States.

The authoritarian government of President Park Chunghee (1961–1979) maintained societal stability and presided over a period of economic development and industrialization. At the same time there was considerable discontent with the authoritarian nature of the regime. Relations with the US deteriorated as human rights violations raised concerns and President Carter proposed the withdrawal of US forces from Korea. In 1979 President Park was assassinated by the director of the Korean Central Intelligence Agency. After a period of government dominated by the military under Chun Doohwan, pressure to move towards democracy increased in the wake of major civil society democratic movements in early 1987 and the ‘Declaration of Democratization and Reforms’ (29 June 1987). The political struggles culminated in the new constitutional arrangement with the presidential elections in 1987 and the election of the National Assembly in 1998.

The end of the Cold War heralded a reversal of the security dilemma on the Korean peninsula, which was the result of long-term political and economic trends. South Korea had become a prosperous country, with increasingly stable democratic political institutions. The economy of North Korea, on the other hand, was in serious decline. The main feature of the post-Cold War period is the weakness of the North Korean state. The principal factor determining North Korea’s foreign policy is regime survival.

The collapse of communism in Russia and eastern Europe was a tremendous blow to Kim Il-sung and the elite of the DPRK. Already during the Gorbachev period in the 1980s, Soviet interest had begun shifting towards closer relations with the Republic of Korea. Since the end of the Cold War Russia has lost both the incentive and the capacity to provide assistance to North Korea, nor is sufficient assistance forthcoming from China. By 1992, both China and Russia had officially recognized the Republic of Korea.

Consequently, the economy of North Korea has virtually collapsed with the loss of cheap energy imports, the lack of manufactured goods from Russia and of other aid. In the years 1990–97, the North Korean economy decreased by 42.2 per cent. In addition to its basic inefficiency, agriculture was hit by natural disasters resulting in serious food shortages and starving people leaving North Korea for China. Material conditions of life for ordinary people have become almost unbearable.

The economic predicament is at the root of the problems of the North Korean regime. The options for halting, never mind reversing, the economic decline are extremely limited. Effectively it requires North Korea to obtain external support through trade and aid or credits. This is difficult because North Korea continues to represent a very unfavourable investment climate.

In response to this situation, North Korea has adopted what came to be called ‘the triple survival strategy’ of improving relations with the United States, Japan and other major capitalist countries, strengthening North Korea’s ‘own way of socialism’ in domestic policy, and gradually opening up to the outside world.

Initial contacts with the United States, however, precipitated a major crisis over North Korea’s nuclear programme. The United States suspected that North Korea was producing plutonium using a research reactor and concealing some of the nuclear material from international inspectors. In other words, the DPRK was pursuing nuclear weapons. As a result of negotiations with the United States, North Korea agreed to give up its plutonium programme in return for a range of political and economic concessions, including the provision of two light water reactors for electricity production. However, after George W. Bush assumed the presidency, the so-called Agreed Framework collapsed over allegations that North Korea was pursuing a second nuclear programme based on uranium enrichment technology. Since then North Korea is believed to have accumulated enough plutonium for about eight nuclear warheads and claims to possess nuclear weapons, and conducted a nuclear test in October 2006 which resolved any doubt about its capability to produce a nuclear detonation.

The perception of the North Korean threat is heightened by its ballistic missile industry based on Soviet-designed missiles, especially the so-called Rodong and Taepodong. Missile engineers in the DPRK have improved rocket engines and guidance systems and thereby increased the range of their missiles. North Korea has exported its missiles to countries like Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, Egypt and Libya and thereby has become one of the major proliferators of missile technology. This fact alone is a major issue of contention between the DPRK and the United States. But North Korea has also used its missile capability to threaten Japan. It has demonstrated the capability of building three-stage missiles which may in future provide the basis for an intercontinental missile capability.

The dynamics of the confrontation on the Korean peninsula

The crisis on the Korean peninsula has acquired a paradigmatic character for the sources of insecurity between states in the twenty-first century, when the confrontation between major powers has diminished and the principal threat to international security stems from crisis regions, such as South Asia or the Korean peninsula, so-called ‘rogue states’, or non-state actors, i.e. ethnic conflicts, civil wars in less developed regions and international terrorism. In this context, the threat of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (especially nuclear weapons) and ballistic missiles has become a central concern. Thus Korea presents an excellent case study of the sources of proliferation, the effectiveness of instruments of counterproliferation, and of dealing with ‘rogue states’ that have not integrated into the international community.

But the dynamics and the persistence of the confrontation on the Korean peninsula defies simple analysis. North Korean behaviour often seems irrational and unpredictable. The different perceptions of North Korea range from that of a brutal, dangerous dictatorship that must be contained and ultimately removed from power, to that of a small, desperate state that considers itself besieged by the most powerful country in the world. In the latter view, North Korea’s seemingly aggressive behaviour is based on its search for security in a hostile world. The dilemma for scholars and policymakers alike is that there is a paucity of data that makes it very hard to know what is really going on in North Korea. There are persistent rumours about internal dissent and disagreements within the ranks of the military, military leaders and political leaders, but little hard evidence. On the other hand, the analysis of what drives the confrontation on the Korean peninsula is not just of theoretical interest. It has profound implications for policy and determines the risks that the Republic of Korea and other states in the region face and how they should deal with them. While some like China and South Korea actively pursue a policy of engaging the North, others like the United States and Japan favour a policy of containment and isolation.

This study is designed to provide an analytical historical account of the relations between the two Koreas since the Korean War, the domestic political and economic development of the two Korean states, their policies towards national security and unification, and the international context. It will present an analysis of the political systems and the development of state identities in Korea with a view to explaining perceptions of threats and security. In order to achieve this task, chapter 2 provides a brief history of the division of Korea, the origins of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea in the North and the Republic of Korea in the South, the Korean War and its aftermath. Chapter 3 is concerned with the evolution of the political system in the DPRK, the consolidation of the rule of Kim Il-sung and the succession of his son Kim Jong-il. It shows how the centrally planned economy of the DPRK developed in the 1950s with a primary emphasis on heavy industry, aided by support from the Soviet Union and China. The failure to reform and modernize as well as the excessive reliance on the support and the markets of other communist countries resulted in a precipitate decline of the economy when the Soviet Union and China withdrew their support as the Cold War came to an end to the point where North Korea experienced serious and chronic food shortages. The chapter discusses the dilemma of economic reform in the North and assesses the reforms introduced in recent years, and examines the development of North Korea’s policy with regard to the unification of Korea.

Chapter 4 traces the development of the Republic of Korea from the early period of military dictatorship to the emergence of a vibrant democracy and highly developed industrialized economy after years of social unrest. Chapter 5 discusses US policy towards North Korea and the crisis that resulted from the emergence of North Korea’s nuclear programme. It analyses the various steps that led the DPRK to refuse demands from the International Atomic Energy Agency to conduct special inspections of its nuclear facilities that almost led to US military strikes against North Korea. A meeting between former President Jimmy Carter and Kim Il-sung marked the beginning of a process of negotiations resulting in the so-called Agreed Framework that froze North Korea’s nuclear programme in return for economic support (including the provision of civil nuclear reactors), the development of political relations between the United States and the DPRK and security guarantees. The chapter assesses the achievements and weaknesses of the Agreed Framework and discusses possible lessons for the future.

Chapter 6 is concerned with the development of inter-Korean relations in the current era. It discusses the origins of a South Korean policy of engaging the North, dubbed the ‘sunshine policy’ by its architect, President Kim Dae-jung, and continued by his successor, Roh Moo-hyun. This policy represents a substantial shift from earlier policies towards the North which were predicated on deterring any aggression and isolating the DPRK as a non-legitimate entity. It resulted in the first-ever summit between North Korea’s leader and South Korea’s president. However, after the Bush administration came into office, relations with North Korea deteriorated as the Agreed Framework collapsed and North Korea resumed its nuclear programme. Chapter 7 discusses the renewed confrontation over the nuclear programme and the efforts to resolve it through the so-called Six-Party Talks, assesses the reason for the failure to achieve their objective so far and discusses the prospects for the future.

How can we assess the threat of the crisis on the Korean peninsula to international peace and security in the region and beyond? The threat has both a military and a political dimension. Chapter 8 provides a thorough assessment of the military dimension. This includes an analysis of the conventional military balance on the Korean peninsula as well North Korea’s missile, nuclear, chemical and biological weapon capabilities. The political dimension is covered in chapter 9 which seeks to get to the core of the security dilemma in Korea, the threat perceptions that drive North Korean foreign policy behaviour, and the dilemmas facing the other powers in the region as they seek to avert conflict and consider the longer-term future of the Korean peninsula. Korea plays a crucial role in the geopolitics of North East Asia. At the same time, the prevention of the proliferation of nuclear weapons is a key issue in global international security and the North Korean case therefore has great significance as a test case for global counterproliferation policies. For all these reasons, the case of ‘Hotspot Korea’ provides valuable insights for the debate about the nature of the international system and approaches to international security in the twenty-first century.

2

Korea: A Nation Divided ————

The origins of the Korean people can be traced far back into prehistoric times. There is evidence of human activity in the territory now known as the Korean peninsula about 500,000 years ago. According to legend, the origins of Korean history date back to 2333 BCE when the first kingdom called Joseon (‘land of the morning calm’) is said to have been established by King Tangun. Although the existence of Tangun remains disputed, it is believed by scholars that ancient Korea was composed of clan communities that joined to form small town-states. These gave rise, by the first century BCE, to three kingdoms on the Korean peninsula and part of a region that today is called Manchuria. These three kingdoms were called Paekche (18 BCE–660 CE) (in the south-east), Koguryo (31 BCE–688 CE) (in the north) and Shilla (57 BCE–935 CE)(in the south-west). In 668 CE, Shilla united most of the territory on the peninsula. After the end of Koguryo, Dae Jo-yeong, who had been a general in the Koguryo dynasty, founded the Balhae kingdom in the Jilin area of Manchuria in 698. The Balhae at their peak occupied a sizeable territory, but in 926 were destroyed by the Khitans (whose name is the origin of the Russian word for ‘Chinese’). When the Shilla dynasty weakened, a warlord took over the entire state and established the Koryo dynasty (918–1392). The end of the Koryo dynasty came after almost five hundred years when a General Yi Seong-gye was sent to attack the forces of the Ming dynasty by the Korean court loyal to the Chinese Yuan dynasty. General Yi turned against his own government, sided with the Ming and became the first king of the new dynasty that adopted the name Joseon in reference to the first kingdom in Korea’s history. The Joseon dynasty lasted for over five hundred years (1392–1910). One of its notable figures was King Sejong the Great (1397–1450) who was an effective military planner and is best known for introducing Hangul, the Korean writing system which is still used today. Between 1492 and 1598, Korea suffered Japanese invasions which were finally repelled with help from China, and in the following century the Manchu Qing Dynasty invaded the peninsula. In the nineteenth century, Korea became a pawn in the power-game between the great imperialist nations (Russia, China and Japan) and was finally annexed and occupied by imperial Japan in 1910 (Han 1970; Palais 1975).

In addition to establishing political control over Korea and developing its economy to serve its own needs, Japan sought to dominate Korea socially and culturally, effectively seeking to destroy Korean culture. Koreans were required to learn Japanese, which became the official language of government, commerce and education, and had to adopt Japanese-style names. This went as far as forcing Koreans (even Korean Christians) to worship at Shinto shrines. Even though the Japanese modernized Korea’s industry, their 35-year rule of Korea left a legacy of hatred of the oppressors that to some extent persists to the present day. Even though politically and even culturally the Republic of Korea is closer to Japan than any other country in the region, the past still makes it difficult for these countries to be the close allies that logically they should become. The experience also engendered a strong feeling of nationalism that is especially evident in North Korea today.

The occupation provoked the formation of a Korean independence movement which the Japanese tried ruthlessly to...

Table of contents

• Cover
• HalfTitle
• Series
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• Foreword
• Acknowledgements
• Chronology
• Map
• Chapter 1: The Crisis on the Korean Peninsula
• Chapter 2: Korea: A Nation Divided
• Chapter 3: North Korea after the Korean War: The Long March to Ruin
• Chapter 4: South Korea after the Korean War: From Struggling Dictatorship to Vibrant Democracy
• Chapter 5: US–North Korean Relations and the First Nuclear Crisis
• Chapter 6: The ‘Sunshine Policy’: South Korean National Security in a New Era
• Chapter 7: Renewed Confrontation and the Second North Korean Nuclear Crisis
• Chapter 8: The Military Confrontation on the Korean Peninsula
• Chapter 9: Understanding the Security Dilemma on the Korean Peninsula
• References
• Index