Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling

Alan R. Jones, Alan Jones

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2018
• Print ISBN: 9781138063969
• eBook ISBN: 9781351661355
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Business
• Subtopic: Business General
• Index: Business

Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling (Volume 1 of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) sets the scene of TRACEability and good estimate practice that is followed in the other volumes in this series of five working guides. It clarifies the difference between an Estimating Process, Procedure, Approach, Method and Technique. It expands on these definitions of Approach (Top-down, Bottom-up and

'Ethereal') and Method (Analogy, Parametric and 'Trusted Source') and discusses how these form the basis of all other means of establishing an estimate.

This volume also underlines the importance of 'data normalisation' in any estimating procedure, and demonstrates that the Estimating by Analogy Method, in essence, is a simple extension of Data Normalisation. The author looks at simple measures of assessing the maturity or health of an estimate, and offers a means of assessing a spreadsheet for any inherent risks or errors that may be introduced by failing to follow good practice in spreadsheet design and build.

This book provides a taster of the more numerical techniques covered in the remainder of the series by considering how an estimator can potentially exploit Benford's Law (traditionally used in Fraud Detection) to identify systematic bias from third party contributors. It will be a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.

Table of contents

• Cover
• Title
• Copyright
• Dedication
• Contents
• List of Figures
• List of Tables
• Foreword
• 1 Introduction and objectives
• 2 Methods, approaches, techniques and related terms
• 3 Estimate TRACEability and health checks
• 4 Primary and Secondary Drivers; Accuracy and precision
• 5 Factors, Rates, Ratios and estimating by analogy
• 6 Data normalisation — Levelling the playing field
• 7 Pseudo-quantitative qualitative estimating techniques
• 8 Benford's Law as a potential measure of cost bias
• Glossary of estimating and forecasting terms
• Legend for Microsoft Excel Worked Example Tables in Greyscale
• Index