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DISRUPTION FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE?
“Everything will change. It will be a very different world!” This prophetic message from the IT industry has now taken hold as the popular view of how digitalization will impact on society. Countless newspaper and blog articles on digitalization start with the comment that it will transform our lives. But that’s not all: many believe that digital innovations are “disruptive”, shaking up and revolutionizing business, communication, manufacturing processes and consumption habits.1 Even critics often leave no room for doubt that we are in the throes of a digital revolution.
And, indeed, never before has any technology taken hold so swiftly or had such a profound impact on our daily lives. In less than ten years, the tiny devices that make information about everything and nothing available any time, any place, have become the constant companions of much of the world’s population. Yet the “smartphonization” of our lives will not be the end of this process. The internet of things, big data, artificial intelligence, smart cities and virtual reality all feed into today’s vision of a future world with potentially profound implications for many areas of life and the economy. We do not yet know how much of it will become reality. But we should prepare ourselves for a future marked by digitalization. Only one question remains unanswered: will it change our society for the better?
The developers of digital technologies are by no means the first to aspire to change society, nor are they alone in this ambition. Many sustainability researchers and representatives of civil society have been insisting for years that our economic model and consumerist lifestyle need to change. They are worried that our Blue Planet’s carrying capacity could soon reach a tipping point, putting entire communities at risk of destabilization.2 And there is no shortage of worrying headlines. Climate change is advancing relentlessly, with potentially devastating consequences for biodiversity loss and human communities over the next few decades.3 At the same time, growing numbers of people – not only in the world’s poorest regions, but increasingly also in the heartlands of the early industrialized countries – are struggling to achieve job and income security and a decent life in society.4 Here, too, we should prepare ourselves: without a radical restructuring of our economy and lifestyle, our future is likely to be dominated by environmental and social crises.
Like many others, we – the authors – are convinced that a fundamental transformation is essential to future-proof our societies.5 This means that the way in which we produce and consume must be radically overhauled to become sustainable and equitable. In other words, we need major changes if we are to overcome the challenges facing our 21st-century world, but with one clear goal: these changes should advance a social and ecological transition. Can the much-discussed disruption potential of digitalization be harnessed for this purpose?
Our generation faces two Herculean tasks. We must build a fairer world for a population soon approaching nine billion people and, at the same time, save the environment from collapse. Justice and ecology are the two priorities and are intimately connected. If inequality increases, with dwindling numbers of people having the prospect of a decent life, so the willingness and the capacity – including the financial capacity – to invest in restructuring our economy and society and experiment with more sustainable forms of production, consumption, mobility and housing will dwindle. And, if climate change, the erosion of fertile soils, species extinction and the overexploitation of finite resources deprive our children and grandchildren of the vital bases of life and economic activity, social conflicts will mount, with more people within rich and poor countries around the world facing job losses, social exclusion and poverty.
The heart of the matter is this: without justice, there can be no protection of the environment and, unless the environment is protected, there can be no social justice.6 That is why greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) in most developed countries must be reduced to zero(!) in the next ten to 15 years as their equitable contribution to global climate action, to keep global warming under the dangerous 2°C threshold and, if possible, to limit it to 1.5°C.7 Within the next two decades, natural resource consumption must decrease to 10 per cent of its current level in order to safeguard the regenerative capacity of ecosystems and the biosphere.8 At the same time, the gap between rich and poor – between the highest and the lowest income groups within society – must not be allowed to widen. On the contrary, it must close in order to safeguard peaceful social relations and democracy in the long term.9 And, in parallel, every individual must have the income needed to participate in society – be it through a job that pays a decent wage or through another source of income.
All these goals are still out of our reach. Progress in most (developed) countries is almost imperceptible. Yes, there is a growing recognition that environmental and social policies are important and that simplistic solutions, such as the firmly-held notion that economic growth is the magic bullet, will not work.10 However, there is little prospect, at present, of a major social and ecological transition. Most companies are still prioritizing growth over radical change, and even those that lead the field in sustainability have only limited capacity to escape systemic constraints. The majority of people are still caught up in their consumer habits and often willingly embrace new opportunities for consumerism. Most politicians seem to be resorting to the safe option of equivocation – while the influence is growing of populists who cling to an outdated status quo while simultaneously undermining our democracy. There appears to be little prospect of any fresh ideas, social or environmental, from our politicians. Yet, if the culture of public discourse is toxic, the functionality of our democratic institutions is undermined and wars and conflict increase around the world, then a peaceful transformation of society towards more sustainability will become even more of an uphill task.
So, we face a real mega-challenge – to transform our society and make it more sustainable – just as the mega-trend of digitalization is exploding into our lives. Can the disruptive potential of digitalization help to initiate the change that is urgently needed and make tomorrow’s world more sustainable and equitable? Certainly, there is no shortage of ambitious statements of intent from the IT industry and Silicon Valley.11 Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg has said that he wants to build a global community that works for all of us. Elon Musk aims to popularize the Tesla, an eco-friendly car. And Microsoft founder Bill Gates’ ambition is to end poverty and hunger in the world. But, is the rhetoric of these and other companies matched by action? How have digital information and communication technologies, the internet, the countless apps and digital platforms influenced energy and resource consumption, jobs and income distribution thus far? And how will increasingly interconnected and rapid communication by people, things and machines affect the environment and fairness in future?
In this book, we look for answers to the core questions that are likely to determine the future of humankind. How can digitalization help to preserve the biosphere and increase social justice? What opportunities and risks are presented by the increasing digitalization to transform our lifestyles and economic structures towards greater sustainability?
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HIDDEN DRIVERS OF DIGITALIZATION
It is a commonplace, in discussions about digitalization, that technology is “neutral”. Technology, it is claimed, is neither good nor bad, but is simply a value-free tool that can be utilized in pursuit of a diverse array of goals. According to this line of argument, a technology makes no judgements about the purpose for which it is used. A motor vehicle, for example, can be used to transport the sick to hospital, be pressed into service as an armoured car in wartime or taken out for pleasant weekend excursions. However, this interpretation app...
