Towards a Climate-Neutral Europe

Curbing the Trend

Jos Delbeke, Peter Vis, Jos Delbeke, Peter Vis

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2019
• eBook ISBN: 9781000750935
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: Environment & Energy Policy
• Index: Politics & International Relations

This book explains the EU's climate policies in an accessible way, to demonstrate the step-by-step approach that has been used to develop these policies, and the ways in which they have been tested and further improved in the light of experience. The latest changes to the legislation are fully explained throughout.

The chapters throughout this volume show that no single policy instrument can bring down greenhouse gas emissions. The challenge facing the EU, as for many countries that have made pledges under the Paris Agreement, is to put together a toolbox of policy instruments that is coherent, delivers emissions reductions, and is cost-effective. The book stands out by the fact it covers the EU's emissions trading system, the energy sector and other economic sectors, including their development in the context of international climate policy.

This accessible book will be of great relevance to students, scholars and policy makers alike.

The Open Access version of this book, available at http://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9789276082569, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.

1
Have 25 years of EU climate policy delivered?

Jos Delbeke

Introduction

In line with its multilateral tradition, the European Union (EU) developed its climate policies with a view to meeting its commitments in the context of the United Nations (UN). The ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by the EU triggered the question of how the EU was to deliver the 8% emissions reduction it had committed to. It took a decade before the EU succeeded in putting a price on carbon. The agreements by the Heads of State and Government on a common target for the EU to reduce emissions for 2020 and later for 2030 were real breakthroughs. It made the elaboration of a comprehensive climate policy at the EU level possible.

1.1 The world is on a most worrying path

The facts about climate change are not at all promising. An indisputable change has been taking place in the climate system since the industrial revolution, one which has become much more pronounced since the 1970s. The concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere keep increasing, and this has led to a global warming of approximately 1°C increase compared to pre-industrial levels.

Solid scientific evidence has been offered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on contributions from the most qualified scientists from all over the world. In addition to the thousands of pages of scientific literature reviewed by the IPCC’s studies, the IPCC also regularly produces “Synthesis Reports” with summaries for policy makers agreed by consensus (see Figure 1.1).

Figure 1.1 IPCC data illustrations of effects of global climate change

Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, Synthesis Report, November 2014¹ (see footnote for full citation)

The fifth and latest Assessment Report of the IPCC, published in 2014, summarises the scientific insights to date. We now know with a high degree of certainty that the planet is warming at an unprecedented speed, measured over recent decades and compared to past millennia. Humans are the cause of this global warming, mainly due to rising CO₂ concentrations related to the very high consumption of fossil fuels. The impacts of climate change will be felt all over the globe in different ways and will lead to adverse impacts for humans and the economy, as well as on natural systems. Scientists also tell us that it is possible to contain the worst impacts of climate change, provided we keep global temperature increase below 2°C, and if possible, to 1.5°C,² compared to pre-industrial times.

The EU economy, individual citizens and society at large are already feeling the significant impact of climate change. Floods, rainfall patterns and forest fires are already happening more frequently than before, resulting in the loss of lives and damage to property and infrastructure. The extent of sea level rise may be limited to date, but the forecasts are not good: a complete melting of the huge Greenland ice sheet – even if occurring over a very long period – would make sea levels rise by around seven metres. The consequences of an expanded desertification in the Mediterranean and Africa will burden economic development, which could further boost migration pressures towards Europe. Even if the consequences of climate change will be more acute in vulnerable developing countries, the impact is likely to be considerable for Europe as well.

The IPCC also calculated a “carbon budget” related to the 2°C temperature increase limit and indicated how much is left for the future. The result represents a real policy challenge: roughly two thirds of the carbon budget compatible with the 2°C limit has already been used. However, the world population is still growing, and a continued increase is forecast for some decades.³ The developing world is aspiring to reach income levels comparable to those of developed countries. As a consequence, in order to limit climate impacts, those with the highest per capita greenhouse gas emissions – and these are mainly the developed countries – must reduce their emissions earlier and very significantly. New technologies and new behavioural patterns will have to be established everywhere so as to bring down the average emissions per person on the globe to less than 2 tonnes of CO₂ per year and eventually to balance the remaining emissions with removals, achieving greenhouse gas neutrality.

All this implies that the goal of respecting the goals of the Paris Agreement to remain “well below 2°C by 2050 and pursuing efforts to 1.5°C” becomes more challenging by the day. The international community agreed to act together in 1992 at the World Summit in Rio de Janeiro through adopting the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Since then, many actions have been undertaken, such as the Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, and more recently the Paris Agreement of 2015. The world has now agreed to step up action in all countries, also in the so-called emerging economies. The Paris Agreement has entered swiftly into force and all efforts should now be concentrated on the implementation of the commitments made. These commitments differ across the globe, and success in honouring them will also vary, but most importantly we must intensify action everywhere as a matter of urgency.

The most worrying development that has occurred since 2015 is that US President Donald Trump has announced the intended withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement. While such a withdrawal cannot be fully implemented before November 2020 (four years after the Paris Agreement came into effect), this signal of disengagement from global efforts by the world’s richest country is a major blow. Fortunately, significant climate policies continue to be deployed by individual US states and cities, with many businesses also committed to contributing to climate action. Similarly, energy market developments, such as the falling costs of renewable energy, improvements in energy efficiency and coal-fired power generation not being competitive with shale gas, point towards continuous progress being made in reducing the greenhouse gas emissions of the power sector in the US.

Conclusion: Scientific evidence on climate change is unequivocal: man-made emissions of greenhouse gases have been accumulating in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution. Only a small window of opportunity is left to avoid significant damage to humans, nature and the economy. The international community has decided to act together and to develop policies to limit climate change to “well below 2°C, and pursuing efforts to 1.5°C”.

1.2 The EU reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 22% since 1990

Following adoption of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the EU decided in 1993 to gather the necessary data on its emissions of greenhouse gases. It was the start for the annual publication of a factual and impartial report, produced by the European Environment Agency (EEA), indicating how Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions evolve and how much sectors emit in each of the Member States.

The good news is that the EU has been reducing its emissions consistently since 1990, the base year of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement (Figure 1.2). In 2017, the EU had already achieved a 22% reduction, which is higher than the target it set itself of a 20% reduction below 1990 levels by 2020.

Heads of State and Government decided in 2014, in readiness for what was to become the Paris Agreement, that the EU would increase the ambition of its greenhouse gas emissions reductions to at least 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. While this will require more action, the bigger challenge will be to prepare the world for net zero emissions in the second half of the century, as stated in the Paris Agreement. The recent IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C reviews the available scientific literature. It concludes that far-reaching and rapid transitions in all sectors around the world will have to be made. Subsequently, the European Commission has indicated that it is possible with currently known technologies to realise such a deep transition towards a climate-neutral Europe by 2050.⁴

Figure 1.2 EU greenhouse gas emissions 1990–2050: historical record and challenges ahead

Source: EEA trends and projections report 2018, EEA GHG dataviewer 2018, EEA GHG projections dataset 2018

In the EU, carbon dioxide (CO₂) represents more than 80% of total greenhouse gas emissions. This release of CO₂ is connected with the extensive use of fossil fuels in power generation, in industry and transport, and these sectors have therefore been the main targets for policy intervention. The other greenhouse gases are methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and fluorinated gases (F-gases). They originate mainly from the agricultural, chemical and waste sectors. These non-CO₂ gases are produced in smaller volumes but are more potent global warming gases, so they have a correspondingly greater impact on the climate system.

The EU’s emissions trend was significantly curbed between 2005 and 2017 (see Table 1.1). This represents a step-change and will make more ambitious reductions in the future both feasible and affordable. Between 1990...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• List of figures
• List of tables
• Foreword
• Acknowledgements
• List of contributors
• 1 Have 25 years of EU climate policy delivered?
• 2 The Paris Agreement
• 3 How economic analysis shaped EU 2020 and 2030 target setting
• 4 The EU Emissions Trading System
• 5 The Effort Sharing Regulation
• 6 Energy-related policies and integrated governance
• 7 Transport emissions from road, aviation and shipping
• 8 Agriculture and forestry in the EU’s 2030 climate target
• 9 Mainstreaming climate change in EU policies
• 10 Ten personal reflections on the difficult journey towards climate neutrality
• Index