Creating 21st Century Abundance through Public Policy Innovation

Moving Beyond Business as Usual

William Sarni, Greg Koch

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2018
• Print ISBN:
  9781783537518
• eBook ISBN:
  9781351042888
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: Business General
• Index: Politics & International Relations

One of the greatest challenges of the 21st century is the problem of how the public and private sectors can sustain economic development, business growth, social well-being and ecosystem health in the face of accelerating demand for water, energy, and food. "Business as usual" projections of scarcity in water, energy, and food predict a lack of these resources sufficient to sustain economic and business growth as well as an adequate standard of living worldwide.

Developments in technology are well documented, but this is the first book to explain the role of innovation in public policy and governance, a topic which is frequently overlooked and often frustrates developments in technology and business. Without innovation in public policy and governance, innovation in technology solutions will face persistent headwinds for adoption. The book showcases these innovations and creates a roadmap of what needs to change to drive economic development, business growth, social wellbeing and ecosystem health in the 21st century.

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1

THE PROBLEM WITH “BUSINESS AS USUAL”

Business as usual is killing us. But, as Alfred E. Neuman is often quoted, “What, me worry?” seems to be the prevailing attitude.

When the supply of resources vastly exceeds demand, there is little to no need to focus on the efficient and effective use of these resources. This has been our collective view for a very long time.

Unfortunately, demand now exceeds supply and we are failing to manage energy–water–food effectively and for the long term. The result is that we have an ever-increasing population with large segments without access to safe drinking water, energy, or proper nourishment.

Let’s abandon business as usual.

We can and must deflect the scarcity trajectory we are on by implementing innovative public policy, technology, financing, partnerships, and business models. It is possible, and, as you will read later, actually occurring.

First, how did we get here?

Population growth is driving increased demand for energy, water, and food. This is further complicated by the negative impacts of climate change. This is our new normal and as a result, old practices and beliefs will no longer serve us well.

For example, there is a lack of knowledge concerning water risk throughout the public sector. Our 19th and early 20th century policies are no longer sufficient for innovation, as they do not consider water stewardship programs that are crucial for the continuation of economic growth.

In order to implement new policies, it is important to analyze the effects of water scarcity before changes are made. Business-as-usual projections yield the need for adjustments, and the complex and interrelated nature of the water, food, and energy sectors prove that programs should be focused in these areas. Public policies and business initiatives should seek to engage external stakeholders while quantifying the value of water.

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Business growth is dependent on resource availability. Critical resources include energy, food or agriculture, and water. If a business cannot maintain access to these resources, its progress will be stunted and profit will be affected. In the VOX Global/Pacific Institute Report, a study showed that 79 percent of responding companies admitted that water challenges are currently prevalent, and 84 percent predicted the presence of water challenges in the next five years.¹

Water scarcity does not solely impact the water sector, but also the energy and agriculture sectors. The water–food–energy Nexus is crucial in understanding the value of water and the impacts from global warming. Corporations will need to implement policies in order to compensate for the changing availability of resources. This can be done through water innovation, with a focus on stakeholder ecosystems, technology, and business or financial modeling.

Risk associated with business-as-usual practices

Due to the global population growth, changes in demand for water, energy, food, and urbanization, business-as-usual practices will not be sufficient for the future. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) estimates that by 2050, the water, energy, and food demands will increase by 55, 80, and 60 percent, respectively.²

The global population is currently increasing by approximately 70 million people each year. As a result, the total global population is projected to reach 9.6 billion by the year 2050.³ This growth will increase the pressure on limited water, energy, and food resources. Energy consumption is estimated to increase by 1.6 percent each year, amounting to an increase of about 36 percent by the year 2030. Additionally, pressure on agricultural resources will increase through societal habits such as consumption of more livestock and vegetable oils. The number of calories that a person ingests each day is expected to increase from 2,373 kcal/person/day in 1969/1971 to 3,070 kcal/person/day in 2050.⁴ Urbanization will yield more industrialization and water usage, and the water demand will increase from 4,500 billion cubic meters to 6,900 billion cubic meters by the year 2030.⁵ This estimation assumes that the efficiency in water technologies does not improve, and the projected demand is about 40 percent over our currently accessible and reliable supply.⁶

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Demand for energy

In the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) 1999 report on energy in the next 50 years, energy demand is characterized by electricity, mobility, and stationary uses.⁷ The demand for energy is expected to increase especially due to non-OECD countries’ projected increase in population, higher living standards, the transition between non-commercial and commercial fuels, and urbanization.⁸ In OECD countries, demand is also expected to increase as electricity and mobility expand through a rising gross domestic product (GDP).⁹

Figure 1.1 Projected energy demand growth by region, industry sector, and fuel type to 2030, in tons of oil equivalent (toe)

Source: BP, BP Energy Outlook 2030, January 2013.

The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a 48 percent increase in global energy consumption by the year 2040.¹⁰ Renewable energy and nuclear power are expected to increase by 2.6 and 2.3 percent, respectively, each year.¹¹ Non-fossil fuels are predicted to grow faster than fossil fuels such as petroleum, natural gas, and coal. Natural gas is expected to increase by 1.9 percent each year, while petroleum-based liquid fuel is estimated to decline to only 30 percent of the “liquid’s share of world-marketed energy consumption”¹² by 2040 (see Figure 1.1). Consumers will begin to prioritize more efficient technologies as oil prices increase in the future.

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Demand for food

By 2050, the demand for food is expected to increase between 59 to 98 percent.¹³ As a result, crop production will need to be increased. Crop production can be improved through greater land use for agricultural purposes or improved efficiency in irrigation or other farming methods. Although it may seem that these solutions are available and fairly straightforward, there is concern when considering land use.

Today, approximately 50 percent of the world’s habitable land is utilized for farming. In fact, agricultural processes account for 38 percent of the world’s land area.¹⁴ There is a finite availability of land for food production, and it is expected that the land use in developing countries will increase by 120 million hectares in order to meet additional food demands from the growing economy and population.¹⁵ I...

Table of contents

• Cover Page
• Praise
• Creating 21st Century Abundance Through Public Policy Innovation
• Title
• Copyright
• Dedication
• Contents
• List of Figures and Tables
• Acknowledgments
• About the Authors
• Foreword by Stanley A. Motta
• Introduction
• 1 The Problem with “Business as Usual”
• 2 The Challenge of the Nexus
• 3 Tough Choices – the Tradeoffs
• 4 The Opportunities
• 5 Creating Abundance – the Path Forward
• Closing Remarks by Anders Berntell
• Index