Climate Change Adaptation and International Development

Making Development Cooperation More Effective

Ryo Fujikura, Masato Kawanishi

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2012
• Print ISBN: 9781849711531
• eBook ISBN: 9781136540332
• Topic: Biological Sciences
• Subtopic: Ecology
• Index: Biological Sciences

Climate change impacts upon the world's poorest most heavily. It is therefore essential that international development initiatives focus on improving the ability of developing countries to adapt to the effects of climate change. This book, a product of research by the JICA-RI (Research Institute of the Japan International Cooperation Agency), examines climate change adaptation from the perspective of development cooperation in order to provide useful lessons for those engaged in research, policy and practice in this vital area.

In this book the editors have brought together a wide range of case studies from across Africa and Asia, covering urban and rural areas and different sectors including water, agriculture and disaster management, in order to examine the following:
o high-resolution climate change projection in Asia and how this can be used in planning appropriate adaptation responses
o in-depth case studies of climate change projections, social, economic and environmental impact and vulnerability assessment and adaptation in rural Thailand and urban Philippines
o cases across Africa for which climate data is less readily available and alternative approaches need to be adopted
o the current situation amongst international donors
o emerging issues caused by climate change

In the introductory section, the editors draw together the full implications from the case studies to discuss how international communities can support adaptation in developing countries and to give an assessment of bilateral projects. They reflect on the lessons learned and offer recommendations for future research and international development cooperation.

Part 1

Introduction

1.1

Background and Objective of the Book

Ryo Fujikura and Masato Kawanishi

In a parallel setting at the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Copenhagen in December 2009, a group of states representing the major emitting countries and main negotiating groups agreed on the Copenhagen Accord, which was taken note of at the closing plenary by the COP. The accord stresses ‘the need to establish a comprehensive adaptation programme including international support’. It also recognizes that ‘enhanced action and international cooperation on adaptation is urgently required to ensure the implementation of the Convention by enabling and supporting the implementation of adaptation actions aimed at reducing vulnerability and building resilience in developing countries’ (UNFCCC, 2010).

Adaptation is defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as an ‘adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities’ (Parry et al, 2007). In recent years, the scope of climate change adaptation has been broadened, with a growing focus on its linkage with development (Lasco et al, 2009). McGray et al (2007) identify adaptation as a continuum, ranging from highly specialized activities in response to specific climate change impacts to activities that address the drivers of vulnerability and build response capacity. In practice, many instances of adaptation fall between these two distinct approaches: the impact focused, on the one hand, and the vulnerability focused, on the other. The study also finds that adaptation activities to reduce vulnerability have a significant overlap with traditional development practices. Actions taken today to reduce vulnerability will increase resilience by providing a buffer against vulnerability to future consequences of climate change (Ribot et al, 1996). Here, the essential starting point is the present. This differs from the impact-focused approach that begins with a consideration of future climate as projected in climate models (Burton et al, 2002).

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report highlights that climate change adaptation and sustainable development share common goals and determinants (Yohe and Lasco, 2007). Similarly, Klein (2008) states that successful adaptation in developing countries depends upon a broader development process. Policies that address sustainable livelihoods and alleviate poverty can also reduce vulnerability to climate change. It is therefore possible to create synergies between official development assistance (ODA) and adaptation. One of the ways to achieve this is to integrate climate risks with development planning, which is called ‘mainstreaming’ (OECD, 2009). While developing countries call for new and additional funding for adaptation, as opposed to mainstreaming, it is difficult, in practice, to distinguish between adaptation initiatives and what can be considered good development. Persson et al (2009) argue that the issue of additionality is best addressed at the finance generation stage. They also stress that delivering on adaptation will be made more efficient and effective through strengthening of existing development processes.

One of the challenges is to search for shared approaches to adaptation planning (McGray, 2009). Adaptation is highly location specific, given the wide range of potential climate change impacts, the variety of factors that shape vulnerability, and the differences in governance structures across countries. Existing strategies and capacities also vary. This suggests that adaptation solutions cannot be transferred easily from one situation to another. This does not mean, however, that each country and community must act in isolation (Tirpak and Ward, 2005). In fact, as Adger (2009) suggests, although adaptation occurs in different contexts, there are common elements in the processes, the constraints and the ways forward for adaptation action.

This book is mainly intended for adaptation and development practitioners, aiming to present some important aspects of adaptation that are transferable between situations. The book contains a variety of case studies. Some are more focused on vulnerability, addressing the drivers of vulnerability in the communities or societies in question. Others are more oriented toward impacts, considering the challenges and opportunities of translating climate model outputs through impact assessment into identification of adaptation options. The cases are also examined at different levels, from community to national and international levels. The locations are varied. So are the sectors to be addressed, which include agriculture, water and disaster management. Against this diversity, this book presents emerging lessons for the practice of climate change adaptation and development.

Outline of the book

This book consists of four parts, including this introductory Part 1. Parts 2 and 3 comprise case studies of climate change adaptation in Asia and Africa, respectively, along with some commentaries. Part 4 starts with two studies that consider the relationship between adaptation and development assistance. It ends with a chapter that addresses the issue of migration forced by climate change, an emerging research topic relating to adaptation.

Case studies of climate change adaptation in Asia

In Chapter 2.1, Akio Kitoh, Shoji Kusunoki, Yasuo Sato and their co-authors analyse the simulation results of the global atmospheric general circulation model, developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Meteorological Research Institute of Japan (MRI), which produces a 20km resolution, the highest among the global models currently available. In response to climate change, increasing attention is paid to anticipatory adaptation, which relies on information on future climate risks (Adger et al, 2007). As adaptation is site specific, it is also often in need of localized information, resulting in growing interest in high-resolution climate models. High resolution is also important for projection of extreme events, as it can represent detailed topography, an important factor that affects extremes.

Kitoh et al not only present the state of the art of one of the most advanced climate models, but also reveal uncertainties that still remain. They verify the model before projecting future climate change. The verification is done through evaluation of the results of present-day model simulations against observed weather data. The findings indicate that while the model is generally good in tracking the pattern of the observed data, it is less skilled at projecting some parameters in certain regions. It shows that in using a climate model for projection in specific areas, it is important to understand how model outputs fit with each context.

Similarly, Gina Ziervogel and Anton Cartwright (Chapter 3.1) present the advantages of analysing the outputs from a set of models, referred to as an ‘ensemble’, over relying on a single model. The ensemble approach enables the user to define a range of potential climate changes and examine adaptation strategies against these plausible futures (Dessai et al, 2009). Chapter 2.1, however, points out that an ensemble does not provide high resolution. The benefit of high resolution, compared to those provided by an ensemble of models, is one of the issues that needs to be examined within the objectives and contexts of climate change projection. It should also be noted that verification of a climate model needs observed weather data. Many developing countries, however, lack historical data, a problem for which international cooperation is being sought.

Chapter 2.1 is based on the outputs of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) training course Capacity Development for Adaptation to Climate Change in Asia. Started in 2008, this course aims to support five Asian countries – Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam – in developing their capacity to adapt to climate change. With the support of JMA and MRI, the course has been focusing on climate change projection for the past two years. Experience gained in the training course demonstrates that it is not mere training, but also an opportunity to obtain new findings regarding the future climate and model applicability in the relevant regions.

In his commentary on Chapter 2.1, Andy Challinor argues that while climate and impact models underpin many efforts to inform adaptation, there are barriers to using models in this way. First is a mismatch that often occurs between model outputs and the needs of decision-makers. When using climate change projections for adaptation, it is important to identify decisions that will be taken based on the information and to make sure that the temporal and spatial scale of modelling is appropriate (Patt et al, 2009). Another constraint is the multiplicity of factors beyond climate that affect adaptation. Vulnerability occurs as a result of a multitude of physical, social and political-economic processes and events. Hence, adaptation needs to be considered from this multi-causal perspective, with climate being placed as one causal agent among many (Ribot et al, 1996). Similar insights are offered in Chapters 3.2 to 3.6.

Chapter 2.2, by Megumi Muto, is part of a joint study by JICA, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the World Bank on climate change impacts and adaptation in coastal Asian cities. This chapter is a case study of an attempt to simulate the impacts of future climate change and to identify adaptation options in Metro Manila. The study uses downscaling, a method of deriving local-scale information from larger scale models, to project local temperature and precipitation, thereby analysing future hydrological conditions such as river overflow and storm surge. Flood simulation maps are then produced according to a range of different scenarios of future climate conditions and infrastructure development. This is followed by economic valuation of the associated losses, which include not only direct but also indirect losses, such as incremental costs of transportation, lost wages and health hazards. In terms of health impact assessment, human health risks due to exposure to pathogens present in floodwater are characterized and quantified. For this purpose, exposure scenarios are developed that depend upon different inundation levels. Based on these analyses, adaptation options are considered. The study concludes that investment based on a previously developed master plan to fill the infrastructure gap in response to current climate variability should be the highest priority in Metro Manila. The study also examines the vulnerability of poor urban households and underlines the necessity of targeted intervention.

Daniel P. Schramm, in his commentary on Chapter 2.2, argues that adaptation requires actions that qualitatively differ from existing development strategies. While recognizing the importance of engineered solutions, he stresses that they need to be placed within an integrated policy framework that includes non-technical measures, such as revising building codes and land-use planning. He also points out the importance of ‘procedural’ mechanisms, including scenario planning and adaptive management, to navigate uncertainty regarding future climate impacts (see Chapter 3.8). Finally, he underlines the necessity of considering trade-offs among resource-users facing scarcity (Eakin et al, 2009).

While the first few chapters are oriented towards impacts, Chapter 2.3, by Maria Osbeck, Somsak Boromthanarat and Neil Powell, is more focused on vulnerability. This chapter involves a case study exploring the complex institutional relationships governing the management of a mangrove system and considering how they are related to the vulnerability of the coastal area to climate change in Thailand. The chapter places emphasis on multi-stakeholder participation and presents a way forward for sustainable mangrove management.

Case studies of climate change adaptation in Africa

In Chapter 3.1, Gina Ziervogel and Anton Cartwright examine the use of climate information in agricultural development practice in Africa. They find that there is currently little evidence of climate model outputs being utilized in agricultural decision-making. They identify four challenging areas. The first is a lack of meteorological data in Africa, where weather monitoring and data collection networks have deteriorated due to civil wars and economic difficulties. The lack of historical data is one obstacle to downscaling in order to derive local information. Second, climate models do not provide information at the spatial and temporal resolution required by farmers. For instance, as climate model outputs are normally available for more than ten years into the future, farmers consider them irrelevant to their crop selection decisions and planting dates. Third, Africa lacks the human and computational capacities to run and analyse climate models. The fourth challenge is a lack of mutual understanding between climate scientists and agricultural users.

In response to the challenges identified above, the chapter provides a set of recommendations. First, historical data should be ‘rescued’ and converted to digital formats. Second, seasonal weather forecasting and climate change projection should be framed coherently to provide information on specific decisions to be made. Seasonal forecasting will be able to serve the needs of small-scale farmers, for instance, who are interested in information about expected rainfall in the coming season (Adejuwon et al, 2008). Climate projection, on the other hand, supports longer-term adaptation planning. Third, climate scientists in Africa need to be trained in climate modelling techniques. Lastly, communication between climate information providers and users should be strengthened. One of the important ways of achieving this is to support ‘translators’ who understand the challenges of both groups and who can facilitate a meaningful dialogue between them.

Chapters 3.2 to 3.6 are a series of case studies of community-based adaptation in Africa. Community-based adaptation is focused on those communities that are most vulnerable to climate change. The aim is to enable communities to understand and integrate the concept of climate risks within their livelihood activities in order to strengthen their resilience to climate variability and change. It is rooted in the local context, and seeks to work with communities to identify local problems and locally appropriate solutions (Huq and Reid, 2007). The following chapters stress the differential and dynamic nature of vulnerability, as well as a multiplicity of stressors that drive vulnerability. Some of the limits and barriers to actions that reduce vulnerability, including cognitive and social constraints, are also discussed (Adger et al, 2007).

Chapter 3.2, by Gina Ziervogel and Anna Taylor, considers the issue of integration of scientific information with perceptions of climate risks. On the basis of field research in Malawi, Zambia and Mozambique, they argue that it is the social landscape that will determine the differential impacts of climate upon people’s livelihoods. Adaptation planning demands a thorough understanding of the local context of gender, culture and other socio-economic factors. The chapter emphasizes that the capacity to adapt is not equal among social groups; therefore, targeted support is necessary.

The differential nature of vulnerability is further elaborated upon by Sukaina Bharwani and Anna Taylor in Chapter 3.3, based on the case study in Lesotho. The list of key attributes of vulnerability, as compiled in Downing et al (2006), is used to demonstrate that people’s vulnerability differs based on the extent to which they are exposed to stresses and their ability to respond. They argue that in order to understand how climate change will affect people di...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Halftitle
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• Preface by Keiichi Tsunekawa
• List of Figures, Tables, Boxes and Plates
• List of Contributors
• List of Acronyms and Abbreviations
• 1 — Introduction
• 2 — Cases of Climate Change Adaptation in Asia
• 3 — Cases of Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
• 4 — International Cooperation and Emerging Issues
• Index