Evaluating Climate Change and Development

Volume 9, World Bank Series on Development

Osvaldo N. Feinstein

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2017
• Print ISBN: 9781412810432
• eBook ISBN: 9781351297943
• Topic: Economics
• Subtopic: Economic Theory
• Index: Economics

Climate change has become one of the most important global issues of our time, with far-reaching natural, socio-economic, and political effects. To address climate change and development issues from the perspective of evaluation, an international conference was held in Alexandria, Egypt. This book distills the essence of that timely conference, building on the experiences of more than 400 reports and studies presented.

Developing countries may be particularly vulnerable to the expected onslaught of higher temperatures, rising sea levels, changing waterfall patterns, and increasing natural disasters. All societies will have to reduce their vulnerability to these changes, and this book describes how vulnerabilities may be addressed in a systematic manner so that governments and local communities may better understand what is happening. Different approaches are also discussed, including the use of human security as a criterion for evaluation as well as ways to deal with risk and uncertainty. Evaluating Climate Change and Development presents a rich variety of methods to assess adaptation through monitoring and evaluation.

The volume deals with climate change, development, and evaluation; challenges and lessons learned from evaluations; mitigation of climate change; adaptation to climate change; vulnerability, risks and climate change; and presents a concluding chapter on the road ahead. Collectively the authors offer a set of approaches and techniques for the monitoring and evaluation of climate change.

Part I
Climate Change, Development, and Evaluation

1
Food, Feed, Fuel, and Climate Change: Challenges, Threats, and Possible Actions

Ismail Serageldin

1 Introduction

The world in the twenty-first century is facing unprecedented threats and complex challenges driven by population growth, growing demands for food and feed, and biofuels developments. The crisis is being exacerbated by human-induced climate change. This unique situation can be summarized by the following equation: 3Fs + 2Cs, where the three Fs stand for food, feed, and fuel, and the two Cs for climate change.

This chapter tries to present a realistic assessment of the likely problems that we are going to face over the next few years due to this nexus. If we do not change the policies on food, feed, and fuel, and engage in global actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and alleviate the damages of climate change and global warming, the consequences will be disastrous. One of the immediate effects will be an inability of agriculture to provide the food needed to meet the demands of a growing population, rising incomes, and competing uses for land and water, with consequent repercussions on the poor and the hungry.

2 The Threat to Food Security

“We are all on this earth the guests of the green plants and those who tend them.” These wise words by M.S. Swaminathan remind us that people, cities, and civilization owe their existence to the agriculture and the agricultural services; and that leads us to analyzing the first part of the equation, the 3Fs: the food, the feed and the fuel.

By food we mean promoting food security for a growing population that is expected to reach 7.29 billion people by 2015.¹ As defined by the “Plan of Action of the World Food Summit,” food security is the “access by all people at all times to sufficient food, in terms of quality, quantity and diversity, for an active and healthy life without risk of loss of such access.”² However, it is necessary for food to be accessible at all places at all times at affordable prices without causing any damage to the environment. The solution therefore is to produce differently not less; i.e., we have to produce more but our means of production should change.

We also have to realize that increasing production is necessary, but not sufficient, to achieve food security. It is impossible to confine agricultural production to some parts of the globe and ship food to the rest of the world. Focusing on the smallholder farmer in developing countries is key to environmental protection, poverty reduction and food security. But, if current trends in demand continue, we are going to have shortages in the near future.

3 How Much Food and Feed Will We Need by 2020?

The relatively old, but still valid, forecasts by IFPRI reveal that almost all the increase in world food demand will take place in the developing countries. According to the IFPRI IMPACT simulations issued in July 1999, the developed countries will account for only 16 percent of the increase in global cereals demand by 2020, and the developing countries will consume about 85 percent of the net additional cereals production between 1995 and 2020 (Figure 1.1). When it comes to roots and tubers the developed countries will account for less than 3 percent of the increase in demand versus 97 percent for developing countries (Figure 1.2). The same is also true for meat products, with 16 percent increase in demand by the industrial countries and about 85 percent increase by the developing countries (Figure 1.3).

There is an assumption that in spite of incomes rise, India will still not significantly increase its animal protein consumption for cultural and religious reasons. If this assumption does not hold, the demand will be even greater, and that will, indeed, be a very serious problem.

4 Responding to the Production Challenge

Precision Farming

To be able to meet these high demands on food and feed we can either increase the area under cultivation (and this has a whole set of identified problems), or increase the yields through high input agriculture, or organic and peasant farming, or depend on sustainable precision farming which strives to combine best science and best management.

Figure 1.1

Share of Increase in Global Demand for Cereals, 1995–2020

Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations, July 1999.

Figure 1.2

Share of Increase in Global Demand for Roots and Tubers, 1995–2020

Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations, July 1999.

Figure 1.3

Share of Increase in Global Demand for Meat Products, 1995–2020

Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations, July 1999

Despite its efficiency, high-input agriculture has had environmental costs. Between 1950 and 2000, the use of fertilizers increased by 23 times and pesticide use increased by 53 times, which had huge impacts on the environment.

The agricultural research community believes that science can bring about a sustainable ecologically balanced precision agriculture. This can be achieved by maintaining the right balance between increasing the production and sustaining the environment. It implies managing the operations that increase biological yields, improve nutrient content, and intensify agriculture as well as managing natural resources sustainably. The role of science is to move from what was known in the seventies as the green revolution, to a “doubly green revolution.”

Expanding the Narrow Food Base

Expanding humanity’s narrow food base must go hand in hand with increasing the yields of traditional crops. There are more than 250,000 known plants, most of which are not edible and many are poisonous. However, of these 250,000+ known plants, at least 20,000 are edible. Of these, only 3000 were sampled, a few hundred were cultivated, and only a 100 were seriously cultivated (i.e., were in the crop lists some 50 years ago). Today, only 12 plants account for 95 percent of all human food crops, with the big four being: rice, wheat, maize, and potatoes. The big four alone account for 80 percent of the total consumption.

This very narrow food base needs to be expanded to other plants that are more resistant, like soybean. Gene banks and the biotechnological revolution are working on this kind of research. They can help move from a green revolution to a “doubly green revolution,” then to an “ever green revolution,” with more genetically diverse crops, less reliance on pesticides and chemical inputs, and more interaction with nature’s biological controls. The ever green revolution also implies the integrated management of soil, water, and nutrients, and the recognition of the socio-economic and the gender dimensions of the land workers. For instance, it can be geared to solve the problems of the African female farmers who currently produce 80 percent of the food, but receive only 10 percent of the wages and own 1 percent of the land.

Equally important is the promotion of alternatives to slash and burn agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa to reduce post-harvest losses that sometimes reach 30 percent. Above all, as the primary purpose of agricultural production is to feed people, efforts must be geared toward increasing the nutritional content of the food. The potentials of genetics and biotechnology are unlimited, and the applications are diverse, however, focus should always be on adopting pro-poor, pro-women and pro-environment policies.

5 The Potentials of Biotechnology

Today, there is a widespread and accepted use of the modern molecular genetics in some issues like tissues sampling, marker edit assistance, and genetic mapping. The new biology opens completely new possibilities. Now with our genetic understanding, we are going beyond marker-assisted selection, tissue culture and genetic maps, to recognize the new revolution in genomics, the QTL analysis and the selection of valuable genes and not only phenotypes.

We can mobilize the genetic revolution to the use of biotechnology and genetic imperatives to improve the agricultural practices. By combining traditional wisdom with modern science, the limits can be pushed even further.

No doubt, different regions will need to address different problems, but all will require the best of science. To achieve this, the need rises to reinforce our scientific research capability, especially in agriculture, focusing on the problems of the poor, not on the extravagant needs of the rich.

Thinking about the future of biotechnology, I always imagined that we would be assembling genomes like Lego sets, and that maybe American farmers would make use of biotechnology to exponentially increase their yields or to produce huge size vegetables.

6 The Genetic Revolution and Human Nutrition

It is possible to gear the capabilities of science to respond to the needs of the poor. One of the applications could be to produce high resistant crops with increased nutritional content. For instance, we can, by 2020, produce super upland rice that is high yielding, disease resistant, drought, cold, and pest tolerant, with perennial stems, erosion minimizing, weed suppressing, adapted to adverse soils, nitrogen fixing, and deep rooted.

Some of the applications in targeting better nutrition already exist. Biofortification has been used to produce Golden Rice and edible vaccines. In spite of public fears regarding genetically engineered foods, all the academies of science assert that the final protein obtained, and not the genetic path, is what really matters.

Genetically engineered foods can help improve human nutrition. A case in point is “Golden Rice” or “Vitamin A rice.” Given that vitamin A deficiency causes half a million deaths in children annually, as well as blindness in 14 million a year, Vitamin A rice can be improved for the poorest of the poor.

Biofortification of crops is an important solution that should be considered, not just to increase the amount of food produced, but also to better the quality of this production.

Another example of biofortification is “quality protein maize” that can be used to grow animals for human feed. This has been experimented on pigs and the results have been remarkable. Genetic engineering can also help in producing edible vaccines that can fulfill the future promise of creating vaccines capable of inducing longer and more productive lives.

7 Changing Diets and Feed Requirements

There is a livestock revolution driven by rising incomes, especially in China. As incomes grow, diets change to include more animal proteins. Between 2000 and 2020 world demand on meat will increase from 233 million tons to 300 million tons, and on milk from 565 million tons to 700 million tons, and on eggs the increase in demand is expected to reach 30 percent.

Figure 1.4 shows the FAO’s forecast of the huge increase in feed requirements between 1961 and 2020, going from 400 million tons up to 1400 million tons over a period of 40 years (Figure 1.5). This increase will largely be met by industrial methods, not by small farmers.

Free range chicken farming method (which presents the risks of diseases, avian flu, and all the other associated problems), is currently losing ground to mass industrial farming.

In addition, there is not enough rangeland to graze cows any more. Increasingly, animal feed is needed to overcome that. Moreover, each of the animal products has a multiplier effect difference from human eating the grain itself.

Figure 1.4

All Feed Requirements to 2020 (projected world growth in demand for animal feed based on existing feed conversion ratios and carcass yields)

Source: Andrew W. Speedy, “Overview of world feed protein needs and supply,” in Protein Sources for the Animal Feed Industry: Expert Consultation and Workshop (Bangkok, 29 April - 3 May 2002), FAO Animal Production and Health Proceedings (Rome: FAO, 2004).

First, there is the conversion ratio of food to feed, then what is known as the carcass yield is added (i.e., the net weight of meat to be eaten of the live weight of the animal). For instance, the beef converts at 7:1, which means that 7 kilos of grain are converted to 1 kilo of cow. With a carcass yield of 60 percent, each kilo of cow will give a net of 0.6 kilo of meat. Chickens are somewhat better, with a convert ratio of 2:1 and a carcass yield of 70 percent. Egg’s production has a 2:1 food conversion ratio. Thus, the feed revolution is laying pressure on the demand for crops, especially maize and corn.

8 Biofuels’ Requirements

The world food crisis is aggravated by biofuels developments and by the insistence of many governments to increase the share of biofuels in transports in the coming years. In addition to the economic and ecological considerations involved, human and ethical concerns continue to exhort that we should not “burn the food of the poor to drive the cars of the rich.”

This is a veritable challenge, as a large part of agricultural production in the United States is being subsidized to move away from food and feed towards biofuel production. While the scientific community is actively discussing the “Wrong Way” and the “Right Way” to produce biofuels, the public opinion has been captured by enormous campaigns that boost the political determination to increase their share in transport.

The question is “how green are biofuels?” Surprisingly, almost all of them are absolutely ‘not green’. In fact, they hardly present any balanced contribution to the environment.

There are different biofuels products...

Table of contents

• Cover Page
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Table of Contents
• World Bank Series on Development
• Foreword
• Introduction The Dual Challenges of Climate Change and Development
• Part I Climate Change, Development, and Evaluation
• Part II Challenges and Lessons Learned from Evaluations
• Part III Mitigation of Climate Change
• Part IV Adaptation to Climate Change
• Part V Vulnerability, Risks, and Climate Change
• Part VI The Road Ahead
• Contributors
• Index